Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 4 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 10 Jun 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
10
29 Jan 2024 – 29 May 2026
-133 d
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Bill Gurley
4
thin
10 Jun 2024 – 14 Oct 2025
+0 d
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Gavin Baker
5
27 Aug 2024 – 4 Aug 2026
+78 d
- Dylan Patel 1 thin 30 Apr 2026 – 30 Apr 2026 +689 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner highlights Super Micro raised full-year guidance by 40% to $14 billion.
“Super Micro took their full year guide up after the bell today by 40%. 40% to $14,000,000,000. So that's why you're seeing these moves.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes hyperscalers now spending $200 billion in total CapEx with questions about return on investment.
“In fact, I think if people are gonna be critical of anything, a lot of people are looking at the total CapEx of the hyperscalers now at $200,000,000,000 and saying, when are you gonna get a return on the dollars that you're spending?”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains MFU runs at 35-40%, measuring the percentage of theoretical compute actually used for training.
“MFU, model flops utilization, and that generally runs around 35 to 40%. And that's literally the percentage of compute, theoretical compute flops that you're actually applying to trading.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains higher MFU allows 25% faster time to market with same GPU and power spending.
“You have the same amount of GPUs and the same amount of power presumably. You could choose between faster time to market.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains that 50% MFU versus 40% MFU enables 25% faster time to market for AI models.
“You could choose between faster time to market. If you run a 50% MFU and your competitor's running 40 for an equivalent amount of trading flops, you could be in market 25% faster.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker proposes a new metric decomposing MFU that he developed the morning of the interview.
“MFU is the most important metric because it gives you all of these advantages and ways to differentiate yourself amongst five people, six people who've trained these GPT core class models.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner proposes dedicating individual nuclear reactors at Diablo to major tech companies for their data centers.
“I could imagine if you had four more reactors sitting here, right, if you could land them at the right price, you could have one reactor for Meta, one for Amazon, one for Microsoft, one for Nvidia, you could have the data center sitting right next to them.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Jensen confirmed GPU clusters are already at 200-300k scale and will reach 500k to 1 million
“I said, are we already at the phase of two and three hundred thousand cluster scale? And he said, yes. And then I said, and will we go to 500,000 a million?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes TSMC announced 20% across-the-board price increase as expected proof point of supply-demand dynamics.
“Another thing that came out this morning that I was kind of waiting on as a proof point, because it didn't make sense to me that it hadn't happened yet, TSMC said they're gonna do across the board 20 price increase.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Stargate will be a property-owner and operating-company structure with one owning and the other leasing.
“People are telling me it's gonna be a prop co op co structure, which I didn't even know it was twenty four hours ago, but it's it's like a one person owns the property.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says the UAE-US AI campus announced is five gigawatts, equivalent to 2.5 million GPUs.
“So in in Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt US AI you know, it's a UAE, US AI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley flags NVIDIA's promise to buy unsold CoreWeave capacity as highly unusual arrangement.
“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”
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“Tech companies are investing over the course of the next four or five years, it's about 10 times the size of the Manhattan Project on an inflation adjusted or GDP adjusted basis.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Databricks and Snowflake are accelerating because they provide the data substrate for agentic AI solutions.
“But there are other companies that we own and love, like Databricks and Snowflake, that are actually accelerating. Why are they accelerating? They are the data substrate upon which enterprises are building agentic solutions.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner contrasts today's GPU utilization with 2000 when only 7% of fiber was utilized.
“Remember back in 2000, we talked a lot about dark fiber. Only 7% of the fiber going into the ground in the year 2000 was being utilized. 7%.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel notes AI software stacks update constantly with nightly builds making performance measurement time-sensitive.
“with software changing literally multiple times a week, right, PyTorch has nightlies, VLM has nightlies, Asteeling has nightlies, CUDA drivers update constantly.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner asserts Elon Musk is the best at converting electrons into AI tokens globally.
“There's no human being on the planet that is better at turning electrons into tokens than Elon Musk.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Musk is building the largest data centers on Earth and eventually in space.
“Elon is building the biggest data centers on Earth and eventually in space of anybody, and nobody is better at turning those electrons into tokens.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner asserts Elon Musk is the best in the world at turning electrons into tokens.
“There's no human being on the planet that is better at turning electrons into tokens than Elon Musk. Right? Let me say that again.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker identifies memory as the single most important factor for increasing token output per compute unit.
“It's the single most important thing you could do to increase token output per unit of compute, and then that obviously, definitionally, actually lowers costs,”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- BG2 Pod also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.
- CNBC Television also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.