Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 2 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 1 May 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Marc Rowan
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thin
1 May 2023 – 5 May 2025
+0 d
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Howard Marks
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thin
22 Aug 2025 – 4 May 2026
+844 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says $8 trillion in equity printed since 2008 created a fabulous credit entry point as it's withdrawn.
“Equity we printed $8,000,000,000,000 from 2008 until 2022. Exactly what was supposed to happen happened. Now that we've started withdrawing it, entry point for credit is fabulous, has adjusted very quickly.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan reports Apollo's best year ever with $650 billion AUM, $500 billion in credit.
“Single best year in Apollo's history. Earnings. Asset performance. The our platform as you think about it we are around 650,000,000,000 of assets under management in our asset management business. 500,000,000,000 of that is credit.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan argues regulators have only two choices for credit: banking system or investment marketplace, no third option.
“And regulators have only two choices as to where credit comes from. It can come from the banking system or it can come from the investment marketplace. There's no third choice.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan notes investment grade bonds take five days to sell, predicting poor trading in risk-off moments.
“Takes five days today to sell an investment grade corporate bond. We should expect in every risk off moment public credit to trade poorly.”
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Howard Marks
Marks notes high yield bonds currently offer 7-8% yields, close to historical equity returns with different tax treatment.
“So today you can buy high yield bonds, whether it be The US or Europe or variations on that theme, what we call low grade credit.”
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Howard Marks
Marks explains that in high yield bonds, identifying which bonds to avoid matters more than which to buy.
“if there are a 100 high yield bonds out there and they're all 8% bonds, and you know that 90 will pay and 10 will default, it doesn't matter which of the 90 that pay you buy because they're all 8% bonds, they all get the same return.”
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Howard Marks
Marks reports Oaktree's high yield default rate is roughly one-third the market average over forty years.
“And so, over the last forty years, on average, something like 3.6 or 3.7% of all high yield bonds have gone into default every year, and our default rate has been roughly a third.”
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