Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
3 of 4 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 26 Nov 2019 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
5
17 Dec 2012 – 31 Mar 2026
-2535 d
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Gavin Baker
4
thin
26 Nov 2019 – 25 Jan 2022
+0 d
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Brad Gerstner
2
thin
16 Jun 2023 – 16 May 2024
+1298 d
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Howard Marks
1
thin
5 Mar 2026 – 5 Mar 2026
+2291 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Yellow Pages took eighty years to peak but fell by half in less than six years.
“So in a six it took eighty years for it to reach that pinnacle and in less than six, it's more than fallen in half.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states local advertising peaked at over one hundred billion dollars around 2006.
“So local advertising measured by a bunch of different groups peaked at about the same time at over 100,000,000,000.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains Innovator's Dilemma: disruptive products succeed by targeting customers who reject incumbent complexity.
“Products that are able to be disruptive get over designed. They get over feature rich, they get complex, they get heavy.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues private companies now have more capital than incumbents for the first time in history.
“And for the first time in history, I believe private companies are the ones with more money and are attacking the long held incumbents, which is a radical thing to think about.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues we have thirty to forty years of rapid disruption ahead, comparing the microchip to the steam engine.
“I would argue her work and kind of history suggests that we have another thirty to forty years of rapid and powerful disruption ahead of us.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts thirty to forty more years of rapid disruption, comparing the 1959 microchip to Watt's 1761 steam engine.
“And in some ways, I think of the invention of the microchip in 1959 as being or the integrated circuit as being analogous to James Watt's invention of the rotary steam engine in 1761.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues we may be entering peak disruption, seventy to one hundred years after the microchip's invention in 1959.
“I would argue peak economic, political, social change as a result of that invention was seventy to one hundred years later during the peak of the industrial revolution eighteen twenty to eighteen fifty.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues AI is now eating software, extending Andreessen's famous thesis.
“Marc Andreessen wrote this op ed, whatever it was, ten years ago about how software is eating the world. Now AI is eating software.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says there's growing confidence that search dollars will redistribute over 5-7 years, even Google must cannibalize search.
“And make no mistake, Google is well positioned to make its claim for that, but its claim is going to come at the expense of search.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts BPO companies face disruption as voice and video modalities threaten their core business.
“BPO companies woke up yesterday and they're like oh my god, this is about voice, this is about call centers, this is about video in, this is about you know?”
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Howard Marks
Marks expresses concern that AI moves faster than society can adjust, creating a formula for disruption.
“So one of my concerns is that AI moves faster than the ability of society to adjust to it. And that and that is a formula for disruption.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley warns people who chose safe jobs without loving them are sitting ducks for AI technology.
“I think you're those are the people, oddly enough, that are kinda sitting ducks for this new technology that's coming along.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Invest Like the Best also carries Bill Gurley and Gavin Baker on this subject, at different times.