On the record about

inflation

8 people · 104 quotes · 19 Dec 2019 to 28 Aug 2026

Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here

5 of 8 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 18 Sep 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.

The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first

    1. “I look back and the core PCE was one and a half in '98 and '99 when Greenspan started raising rates again from 475 is currently one seven and he's got them at 1.5.”

      19 Dec 2019 · Bloomberg Television · 9:20 · source · permalink
    1. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner reports the Fed expects 2% negative real rates by year-end, with 4.3% inflation and 2.3% ten-year rate.

      “They said we expect inflation exiting the year to be 4.3 and we expect the ten year to be around 2.3.”

      26 Mar 2022 · All-In Podcast · 5:22 · source · permalink
    2. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner argues used car prices jumped from $20,000 to $29,000 due to stimulus.

      “The price for a used car was $20,000 for ten years. And then just coincidentally, alright, they give us a bunch of Red Bull and the price goes to $29,000.”

      23 May 2022 · All-In Podcast · 7:54 · source · permalink
    3. David Friedberg

      Friedberg explains inflation moves through economy in stages, starting with commodities before becoming sticky in services.

      “So the first thing we saw inflate was sort of hard commodities and soft commodities, things like energy and agricultural products and metals and so on.”

      17 Oct 2022 · Megyn Kelly · 17:59 · source · permalink
    1. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner says cargo container costs increased tenfold by June 2021 when inflation was evident.

      “June 2021, when the world knew inflation was here. I mean, the cost of a cargo container had gone up by 10 x.”

      28 Sep 2023 · CNBC Television · 1:36 · source · permalink
    2. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner argues the Fed made a knowable mistake ignoring 20x shipping cost increases in summer 2021.

      “The cost of a container from China to The US had gone up 20x. Okay. The idea that we didn't have an inflation problem in the summer of twenty twenty one”

      25 Oct 2023 · Joe Lonsdale · 31:20 · source · permalink
    3. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner says the Fed made a clear mistake in summer 2021 by not seeing inflation coming.

      “But by the summer of twenty one, when the Fed was saying they don't see inflation, that was clearly a mistake.”

      8 Nov 2023 · CNBC Television · 3:31 · source · permalink
    1. David Tepper

      Tepper warns that easing beyond two or three cuts risks a weaker dollar and higher inflation.

      “Beyond that, I think it can, you know, then you're really risking a lot of things. A weaker dollar, more inflation, and those sort of things.”

      18 Sep 2025 · CNBC Television · 7:02 · source · permalink
    2. Marc Rowan

      Rowan argues governments are borrowing record amounts while fragmenting labor and goods flows through immigration and tariff policies.

      “We have governments around the world who are borrowing record amounts of money. We are, for maybe good and valid reasons, fractionalizing our labor supply through immigration reform.”

      10 Dec 2025 · Yahoo Finance · 0:27 · source · permalink
    3. Marc Rowan

      Rowan says governments are borrowing record amounts while fracturing labor and goods flows through immigration and tariff policies.

      “We have governments around the world who are borrowing record amounts of money. We are, for maybe good and valid reasons, fractionalizing our labor supply through immigration reform.”

      21 Dec 2025 · Yahoo Finance · 0:27 · source · permalink
    4. Marc Rowan

      Rowan observes yield curve steepening with ten-year rates rising despite short rate cuts.

      “Depreciating our currency has the tendency to be inflationary. And what we're seeing is a steepening of the yield curve. Rates that matter, the ten year, are higher even if short rates are lower.”

      21 Dec 2025 · Yahoo Finance · 0:54 · source · permalink
    1. Marc Rowan

      Rowan argues the 30% market overhang from geopolitics, inflation, and technology was foreseeable and predictable.

      “I think the 30% overhang of geopolitics, inflation, technological change is now here. It was foreseeable, not maybe exactly how it occurred, but it was foreseeable. It was predictable.”

      3 Mar 2026 · Bloomberg Television · 2:24 · source · permalink
    2. Scott Bessent

      Bessent expects real wage growth to resume as soon as next month after April spike.

      “But we had had before April, we had seen real wage growth for working Americans every month during President Trump's presidency, and I would expect maybe even as soon as next month we will go back to that.”

      3 Jul 2026 · CBS News · 6:39 · source · permalink
    3. Scott Bessent

      Bessent says Treasury is pressuring gasoline retailers to lower prices and seeing positive response from major retailers.

      “We're telling them we're watching them. And we've had some good uptake from some of the bigger retailers in terms of what they want to do for consumers.”

      3 Jul 2026 · CBS Mornings · 6:15 · source · permalink
    4. Scott Bessent

      Bessent forecasts real wage gains could return as soon as this month after inflation spike.

      “I would expect that perhaps as soon as this month, we're going to see real wage gains.”

      3 Jul 2026 · CBS Mornings · 7:36 · source · permalink
    5. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets timeline expectations, saying Fed cannot deliver in days or weeks but will fulfill congressional mandate.

      “We've got no magic wand. This isn't something that we're gonna be able to carry out in days or weeks, but we're gonna deliver on the responsibility that congress gave us.”

      29 Jul 2026 · Forbes Breaking News · 2:31 · source · permalink
    6. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh argues hardworking Americans, not financial market participants, bear the worst costs of Fed policy errors.

      “If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it? Not the financial high flyers.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 0:40 · source · permalink
    7. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says Fed forward guidance in 2021 likely slowed the policy response to high inflation.

      “I am not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite just one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 0:58 · source · permalink
    8. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says Fed forward guidance in 2021 likely slowed the policy response to high inflation.

      “I am not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite just one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 0:58 · source · permalink
    9. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh cites Fed's preferred inflation measure at 3.7% over twelve months, above four percent over six months.

      “The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the one I talked about earlier, the twelve month change in the PC price index stands at 3.7%, with the six month change a little above four.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 1:09 · source · permalink
    10. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh cites Fed's preferred inflation measure at 3.7% over twelve months, above four percent over six months.

      “The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the one I talked about earlier, the twelve month change in the PC price index stands at 3.7%, with the six month change a little above four.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 1:09 · source · permalink
    11. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh states all inflation measures show inflation running above the Fed's 2% target.

      “None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story. Inflation is running above our 2% target.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 1:30 · source · permalink
    12. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh states all inflation measures show inflation running above the Fed's 2% target.

      “None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story. Inflation is running above our 2% target.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 1:30 · source · permalink
    13. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to target at sufficient speed or continue policy work.

      “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 1:47 · source · permalink
    14. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to target at sufficient speed or continue policy work.

      “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters · 1:47 · source · permalink
    15. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh argues hardworking Americans, not financial markets, bear the biggest costs when the Fed misjudges inflation.

      “Not the financial high flyers. Hardworking Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that's too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 0:47 · source · permalink
    16. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh argues hardworking Americans, not financial markets, bear the biggest costs when the Fed misjudges inflation.

      “Not the financial high flyers. Hardworking Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that's too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 0:47 · source · permalink
    17. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says 2021 forward guidance may have delayed the Fed's response to high inflation.

      “I am not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite just one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 0:58 · source · permalink
    18. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says 2021 forward guidance may have delayed the Fed's response to high inflation.

      “I am not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite just one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 0:58 · source · permalink
    19. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh reports PCE inflation at 3.7% over twelve months, above 4% over six months.

      “The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the one I talked about earlier, the twelve month change in the PC price index stands at 3.7%, with the six month change a little above four.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 1:09 · source · permalink
    20. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh reports PCE inflation at 3.7% over twelve months, above 4% over six months.

      “The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the one I talked about earlier, the twelve month change in the PC price index stands at 3.7%, with the six month change a little above four.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 1:09 · source · permalink
    21. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets the standard that the Fed must be confident inflation is moving to target at sufficient speed.

      “So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 1:45 · source · permalink
    22. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets the standard that the Fed must be confident inflation is moving to target at sufficient speed.

      “So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Reuters Business · 1:45 · source · permalink
    23. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh accepts full Federal Reserve responsibility for 65 months of sustained elevated inflation.

      “Responsibility for sixty five months of sustained elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank, and that's where it belongs.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Varney & Co. · 1:11 · source · permalink
    24. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh accepts full Federal Reserve responsibility for 65 months of sustained elevated inflation.

      “Responsibility for sixty five months of sustained elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank, and that's where it belongs.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Varney & Co. · 1:11 · source · permalink
    25. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets standard requiring clear evidence of inflation moving to target at sufficient speed.

      “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Varney & Co. · 1:24 · source · permalink
    26. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets standard requiring clear evidence of inflation moving to target at sufficient speed.

      “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Varney & Co. · 1:24 · source · permalink
    27. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh notes profit margins are quite elevated relative to history with low equity volatility.

      “he says profit margins are quite elevated related to history and overall equity market, the volatility is low.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Varney & Co. · 2:06 · source · permalink
    28. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says inflation is above 2% target and Fed's predominant focus should be on prices.

      “Inflation is running above our 2% target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Financial Times · 0:52 · source · permalink
    29. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh says inflation is above 2% target and Fed's predominant focus should be on prices.

      “Inflation is running above our 2% target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Financial Times · 0:52 · source · permalink
    30. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets standard that underlying inflation must move clearly and at sufficient speed to objective.

      “So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Financial Times · 1:01 · source · permalink
    31. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets standard that underlying inflation must move clearly and at sufficient speed to objective.

      “So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Financial Times · 1:01 · source · permalink
    32. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets standard requiring confidence that underlying inflation is moving to objective at sufficient speed.

      “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Financial Times · 1:03 · source · permalink
    33. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh sets standard requiring confidence that underlying inflation is moving to objective at sufficient speed.

      “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

      28 Aug 2026 · Financial Times · 1:03 · source · permalink
    1. Kevin Warsh

      Warsh announces the updated consensus statement emphasizes promoting maximum employment and stable prices across broad economic conditions for all Americans.

      “The updated statement, also commonly known as the consensus statement, emphasizes that the FOMC's monetary policy strategy is designed to promote the congressionally-assigned goals of maximum employment and stable prices across a broad range of economic conditions for the benefit and well-being of all Americans.”

      · FOMC press conferences (video and transcript) · 0:23 · source · permalink
    2. “at that time stock exchange floors were loud places crowded with people and paper, Paul Volcker was the Federal Reserve chairman, having helped steer the country out of a period of high inflation, and a single European currency remained just an idea.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 0:23 · source · permalink
    3. “at that time stock exchange floors were loud places crowded with people and paper, Paul Volcker was the Federal Reserve chairman, having helped steer the country out of a period of high inflation, and a single European currency remained just an idea.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 0:23 · source · permalink
    4. John Williams

      Williams links 1970s productivity slowdown to stagflation and 1990s-2000s boom to low-inflation prosperity.

      “The productivity slowdown of the 1970s contributed to stagflation. And the productivity boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s was a contributing factor to that decade’s economic prosperity with low inflation.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 1:42 · source · permalink
    5. John Williams

      Williams links 1970s productivity slowdown to stagflation and 1990s-2000s boom to low-inflation prosperity.

      “The productivity slowdown of the 1970s contributed to stagflation. And the productivity boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s was a contributing factor to that decade’s economic prosperity with low inflation.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 1:42 · source · permalink
    6. John Williams

      Williams estimates tariffs have added roughly half a percentage point to current inflation running at about 2.75 percent.

      “My current estimate is that the increase in tariffs to date has contributed around one half of a percentage point to the current inflation rate of about 2-3/4 percent.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 3:24 · source · permalink
    7. John Williams

      Williams estimates tariffs have added roughly half a percentage point to current inflation running at about 2.75 percent.

      “My current estimate is that the increase in tariffs to date has contributed around one half of a percentage point to the current inflation rate of about 2-3/4 percent.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 3:24 · source · permalink
    8. John Williams

      Williams warns low r-star means more frequent lower bound constraints on policy effectiveness.

      “A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank’s inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 3:31 · source · permalink
    9. John Williams

      Williams notes inflation expectations have receded to pre-pandemic averages after April tariff pullback.

      “Longer-run inflation expectations have remained stable. And with the pullback in tariffs since early April, short- and medium-term inflation expectations have receded back close to their pre-pandemic averages.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:02 · source · permalink
    10. John Williams

      Williams says inflation is about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal, driven by three factors.

      “Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. This elevation primarily reflects three drivers.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:25 · source · permalink
    11. John Williams

      Williams says inflation is about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal, driven by three factors.

      “Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. This elevation primarily reflects three drivers.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:25 · source · permalink
    12. John Williams

      Williams states inflation is at about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal.

      “Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:25 · source · permalink
    13. John Williams

      Williams states inflation is at about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal.

      “Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:25 · source · permalink
    14. John Williams

      Williams says inflation is at 4 percent, driven first by higher tariffs on imported goods.

      “This elevation primarily reflects three drivers. The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:34 · source · permalink
    15. John Williams

      Williams reports PCE inflation rose to 3.5 percent in March.

      “On the price stability side of the Fed’s dual mandate, overall inflation—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—rose to 3-1/2 percent in March.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:35 · source · permalink
    16. John Williams

      Williams reports PCE inflation rose to 3.5 percent in March.

      “On the price stability side of the Fed’s dual mandate, overall inflation—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—rose to 3-1/2 percent in March.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:35 · source · permalink
    17. John Williams

      Williams identifies tariffs, Middle East conflict, and AI-driven demand as the three drivers of elevated inflation.

      “The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods. The second is supply chain disruptions and higher energy and commodity prices owing to the conflict in the Middle East.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:36 · source · permalink
    18. John Williams

      Williams cites Middle East conflict and AI-related demand as second and third inflation drivers.

      “The second is supply chain disruptions and higher energy and commodity prices owing to the conflict in the Middle East.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:42 · source · permalink
    19. John Williams

      Williams attributes about one percentage point of March inflation to tariffs and energy prices.

      “The combination of higher tariffs and energy prices has contributed about a percentage point to that figure.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 4:47 · source · permalink
    20. John Williams

      Williams says AI investment will support productivity growth but currently supply and demand are racing.

      “I am confident that these investments will support strong productivity growth in coming years. But, right now, we’re in a race between available supply and surging demand.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 5:06 · source · permalink
    21. John Williams

      Williams sees sharp price increases in semiconductors and power transformers from AI demand outpacing supply.

      “As a result, we are seeing sharp increases in the prices of semiconductors, power transformers, and other technology that is essential for the AI buildout.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 5:24 · source · permalink
    22. John Williams

      Williams states inflation is around 3 percent with tariffs adding 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points.

      “inflation is currently hovering around 3 percent, with tariffs contributing between one half and three quarters of a percentage point to this figure.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 5:32 · source · permalink
    23. John Williams

      Williams states inflation is around 3 percent with tariffs adding 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points.

      “inflation is currently hovering around 3 percent, with tariffs contributing between one half and three quarters of a percentage point to this figure.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 5:32 · source · permalink
    24. John Williams

      Williams expects new tariffs to replace expiring ones without adding significant additional price pressure.

      “My expectation is that any new tariffs will primarily replace those that were curtailed or will soon expire, so we shouldn’t see a significant additional impulse on prices from this source going forward.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 6:12 · source · permalink
    25. John Williams

      Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current 3 percent inflation rate.

      “My current estimate is that, to date, the increase in tariffs has contributed around one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate of about 3 percent.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 6:15 · source · permalink
    26. John Williams

      Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current 3 percent inflation rate.

      “My current estimate is that, to date, the increase in tariffs has contributed around one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate of about 3 percent.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 6:15 · source · permalink
    27. John Williams

      Williams says there are no signs of significant second-round effects from tariffs.

      “There are no signs of significant second-round effects from tariffs spilling over to the rest of the economy,”

      · NY Fed speeches · 6:48 · source · permalink
    28. John Williams

      Williams reports three-quarters of businesses passed along tariff costs, with a third to half fully passing them through.

      “Indeed, almost a third of manufacturers and nearly half of service firms reported fully passing along all tariff-related cost increases.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:03 · source · permalink
    29. John Williams

      Williams expects tariffs to boost overall prices by 1 to 1.5 percent through first half of next year.

      “All in all, I expect tariffs will boost overall prices by a total of between 1 and 1-1/2 percent, with these effects continuing through the first half of next year.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:14 · source · permalink
    30. John Williams

      Williams expects tariff effects on aggregate data to increase in coming months despite modest impacts so far.

      “All in all, although we are only seeing relatively modest effects of tariffs in the hard aggregate data so far, I expect those effects to increase in coming months.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:17 · source · permalink
    31. John Williams

      Williams notes Latin American central banks raised rates before the Fed during COVID inflation, reversing historical pattern.

      “Until COVID-19, central banks in emerging economies, including many in Latin America, typically had followed the lead of the Fed when responding to shocks.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:22 · source · permalink
    32. John Williams

      Williams forecasts tariffs will add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation through early 2026.

      “Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:30 · source · permalink
    33. John Williams

      Williams forecasts tariffs will add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation through early 2026.

      “Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:30 · source · permalink
    34. John Williams

      Williams expects tariffs to have one-off price effects and inflation to decline later this year after peak tariff impact.

      “Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:31 · source · permalink
    35. John Williams

      Williams expects tariffs to have one-off price effects and inflation to decline later this year after peak tariff impact.

      “Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:31 · source · permalink
    36. John Williams

      Williams forecasts inflation peaking at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half 2026, reaching 2 percent goal in 2027.

      “I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:37 · source · permalink
    37. John Williams

      Williams forecasts inflation peaking at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half 2026, reaching 2 percent goal in 2027.

      “I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 7:37 · source · permalink
    38. John Williams

      Williams expects inflation around 3 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.

      “Looking ahead, my base case is for inflation to be about 3 percent this year, before dropping to our 2 percent target in 2027”

      · NY Fed speeches · 8:19 · source · permalink
    39. John Williams

      Williams expects inflation around 3 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.

      “Looking ahead, my base case is for inflation to be about 3 percent this year, before dropping to our 2 percent target in 2027”

      · NY Fed speeches · 8:19 · source · permalink
    40. John Williams

      Williams expects inflation around 2.75 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.

      “I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 8:29 · source · permalink
    41. John Williams

      Williams expects inflation around 2.75 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.

      “I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 8:29 · source · permalink
    42. John Williams

      Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation hitting 3 percent in 2025 before declining to 2 percent.

      “With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 8:52 · source · permalink
    43. John Williams

      Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027.

      “And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 9:05 · source · permalink
    44. John Williams

      Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027.

      “And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 9:05 · source · permalink
    45. John Williams

      Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming inadvertently restrictive.

      “Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 9:32 · source · permalink
    46. John Williams

      Williams forecasts inflation of 3 to 3.5 percent in 2025, declining to 2 percent by 2027.

      “I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 9:55 · source · permalink
    47. John Williams

      Williams forecasts inflation of 3 to 3.5 percent in 2025, declining to 2 percent by 2027.

      “I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 9:55 · source · permalink
    48. John Williams

      Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 percent in 2027.

      “And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 10:52 · source · permalink
    49. John Williams

      Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 percent in 2027.

      “And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 10:52 · source · permalink
    50. John Williams

      Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation without second-round effects.

      “My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 11:04 · source · permalink
    51. John Williams

      Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation without second-round effects.

      “My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 11:04 · source · permalink
    52. John Williams

      Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 2028.

      “For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 11:44 · source · permalink
    53. John Williams

      Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 2028.

      “For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 11:44 · source · permalink
    54. John Williams

      Williams sees increased downside employment risks and lessened upside inflation risks as labor market cools.

      “My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 12:04 · source · permalink
    55. John Williams

      Williams sees increased downside employment risks and lessened upside inflation risks as labor market cools.

      “My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 12:04 · source · permalink
    56. John Williams

      Williams says immediate recognition of productivity shifts produces trivial inflation effects below 0.1 percentage points with instant rate rises.

      “Indeed, with immediate recognition (not shown), the depressing effect on the inflation rate is trivial, less than one tenth of a percentage point.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 12:36 · source · permalink
    57. John Williams

      Williams states anchoring inflation expectations is a bedrock principle for maintaining low and stable inflation.

      “This principle has become a bedrock of modern central banking, as economic analysis and history have shown that anchoring inflation expectations is important in maintaining low and stable inflation.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 13:07 · source · permalink
    58. John Williams

      Williams states anchoring inflation expectations is a bedrock principle for maintaining low and stable inflation.

      “This principle has become a bedrock of modern central banking, as economic analysis and history have shown that anchoring inflation expectations is important in maintaining low and stable inflation.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 13:07 · source · permalink
    59. John Williams

      Williams cautions that overconfidence in r-star estimates risks unmooring inflation expectations.

      “Given the wide range of uncertainties, acting as if one knows the star variables when making policy can lead to persistent deviations of inflation from the target that risk unmooring inflation expectations.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 16:00 · source · permalink
    60. John Williams

      Williams cautions that overconfidence in r-star estimates risks unmooring inflation expectations.

      “Given the wide range of uncertainties, acting as if one knows the star variables when making policy can lead to persistent deviations of inflation from the target that risk unmooring inflation expectations.”

      · NY Fed speeches · 16:00 · source · permalink

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