Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 4 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 3 Mar 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
4
thin
26 Jan 2023 – 14 Oct 2025
-36 d
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Brad Gerstner
10
3 Mar 2023 – 10 Sep 2025
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 13 21 Jan 2025 – 25 Aug 2026 +690 d
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Gavin Baker
1
thin
4 Aug 2026 – 4 Aug 2026
+1250 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley believes Facebook's stock would double if they shut down VR, which costs $5-10 billion annually.
“Wall Street's on my side on this one. I think if they shut down the VR effort, not only will the profitability would soar because they're spending real money, like 5 to 10,000,000,000 a”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner contextualizes AI investment by noting Meta alone spends $20B yearly on AR/VR for comparison.
“Meta's gonna spend 20,000,000,000 in one year alone on ARVR, and this is on an entire platform. So I I don't know.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner details ByteDance financials: $120B revenue, $25B profit similar to Meta, US TikTok only $3-4B.
“So a 120,000,000,000 top line. It's also been leaked that in that TikTok is about 14,000,000,000 of that and that US TikTok is 3 to 4,000,000,000.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner references his letter to Zuckerberg urging AI investment and predicts Meta will be a major AI winner.
“I said on your program, you know, six or nine months ago, and in my letter to Mark Zuckerberg, I said double down on AI.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reveals Meta was trading at 6x fully taxed earnings at the start of 2023.
“Meta was trading at six times fully taxed earnings, right? And so unless you were doing the work”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Meta reduced headcount from 87,000 to 67,000 since his letter in Q3 2022.
“When we wrote that letter in q three of twenty two, the head count at this company was 87,000 people. As of this quarter, it was 67,000 people.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Meta nearly tripled earnings per employee in fifteen months.
“They've nearly tripled their earnings per person working at the company in in over that fifteen month period of time.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner claims Meta is the largest AI profit beneficiary in public markets outside NVIDIA.
“They are the single largest beneficiary of AI from a profit perspective in the public markets today outside of NVIDIA.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates the market assigns negative $120 per share valuation to Reality Labs.
“The market's assigning a 20 times multiple to the company. So that's effectively an implied valuation of negative $120 per share for Reality Labs.”
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“In two years, that company has gone from $22,000,000,000 in net income to $55,000,000,000 in net income. They've reduced their headcount from 85,000 people to 69,000 people.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says closed AI model companies must compete with frontier performance while Meta gives it away free.
“If you're a closed model company, the question first is, okay, I'm going to have to compete and keep up with this frontier level competition. That's hard enough. It takes a lot of resources.”
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“Meta, they accidentally open sourced this code. It's literally called PowerPlant node blowup. It's a flag.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Meta's upcoming Llama will achieve similar cost decreases to DeepSeek v3 without causing alarm.
“And Meta's Meta's gonna release their new llama soon enough. Right? And that one is gonna be, you know, a similar level of cost decrease,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes Meta's Scale AI acquisition structure: 49% stake for $15B at $30B valuation to avoid regulatory scrutiny.
“Meta has done this interesting structured deal, they're buying 49% of the company, they're paying a $30,000,000,000 valuation so they're paying effectively 15,000,000,000, they're avoiding regulatory scrutiny, the CEO of scale is going to help lead efforts at Meta.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains how MOE routing works and how some of Meta's experts weren't being used at all.
“And and each expert learns its own independent things and it's like really not something observable by people. But what you can see is tokens when which experts do they route to?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel identifies a major shift in Zuckerberg's strategy toward pursuing superintelligence recently.
“He was chasing like AI is good and great, but like AGI is not a thing that is gonna happen soon. So sort of this is a big shift in strategy”
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Dylan Patel
Patel directly contradicts Sam Altman's claim that no top researchers have left OpenAI for Meta.
“As far as Sam is saying that no top researchers have gone, I don't believe that's accurate. I initially the top researchers definitely did say no, the best researchers, the best people.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel claims Meta offered over $1 billion to one OpenAI researcher as retention or acquisition offer.
“And you said $100,000,000 I've heard a number for someone over 1,000,000,000 actually, for one person at OpenAI. But anyways, you know, it's a ridiculous amount of money,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports hearing Meta offered over one billion dollars to a single OpenAI researcher.
“I've heard a number for someone over 1,000,000,000 actually, for one person at OpenAI. But anyways, you know, it's a ridiculous amount of money,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reveals Meta is building temporary tent structures to house GPUs because permanent buildings take too long to construct.
“Meta is literally building these, like, temporary, like, tent structures to put GPUs in because building the building takes too long, and it takes too much labor, as you mentioned labor.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports new Trump tax bill allows year-one GPU depreciation, worth $10 billion annually to Meta alone.
“the new the new Trump, you know, tax bill institutes something really incredible, which is that you can depreciate all of the GPU cluster cost in year one, which we put out, like, a note about how, like, the tax implications to, like, meta are, like, $10,000,000,000 a year. And across each of the major hyperscalers, it's, like, massive.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states Meta cut from 87,000 to 62,000 employees and reorganized around AI in February 2023.
“They went from 87,000 employees to 62,000 employees in October of 'twenty two. They reorganized the company around AI starting in February of 'twenty three.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel describes Meta's temporary tent-like data centers designed for single GPU generation lifecycles instead of 30-year buildings.
“Meta has got a data center design that's only built to last for a single generation. They put them in these tent buildings.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley identifies Meta agreeing to cover debt failure without owning the debt as classic off-balance-sheet financing.
“Meta agreed to pay for the failure of debt on a facility where they don't own the debt. You know? And to me, that's classic off balance sheet financing.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says OpenAI and Meta run NVIDIA GPUs at lower power to fit 10% more chips despite worse TCO.
“Even though it's terrible on a TCO basis, they were able to get, you know, 10% more GPUs in, and it's great. And Meta has done similar.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel names Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI as public customers adopting AMD's MI450X Helios platform.
“There's there's quite a bit of, public customer traction, Meta, Oracle for OpenAI, and there's many other customers who are who are looking to adopt it.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains Meta's compute rental was inspired by SpaceX selling clusters at massive premiums to contracted rates.
“What it was is they saw SpaceX have a big installed base of compute and sell some big trading optimized clusters into the market at a truly massive premium to these contracted rates.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues Meta could pay 8% interest rates versus current 5-6% because compute returns are enormous.
“So why wouldn't interest rates Yep. For Amazon go from, you know, from where they are today? I think Meta pay okay, let's like so this is going be extremely lived out.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- BG2 Pod also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.