Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
3 of 4 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 21 May 2020 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
5
11 Dec 2012 – 23 Dec 2024
-2718 d
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David Friedberg
2
thin
21 May 2020 – 21 May 2020
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 3 thin 21 Jan 2025 – 5 Feb 2026 +1706 d
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Howard Lutnick
1
thin
12 Mar 2025 – 12 Mar 2025
+1756 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley recalls predictions from five years ago that venture capital would become obsolete due to cheap startup costs.
“If you go back about five years, a whole bunch of people said, well Venture's dead because there's infinite angel money and you can start a company for cheap and you won't need Venture anymore.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts the next ten years will involve removing enterprise technology and moving systems outside via SaaS.
“I say we spent forty years cramming technology into the enterprise. We're going to spend the next ten yanking it out. It's just so wholesale that you're moving systems outside.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg admits he vastly overestimated lockdown effectiveness, predicting under 20,000 deaths and return to work by April 7.
“I was like, Oh, April 7, we'll be back to work. And I also had a bet going with you guys and I said, gonna have less than twenty thousand deaths in The US.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts all infectious disease could be eradicated in 20 years if not for regulatory obstacles.
“I think in twenty years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation because the science is known.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts a smaller company with a courageous founder will IPO first, not Stripe or other large names.
“I actually I actually think we'll probably see someone a smaller company with a courageous founder step through the window. Like, I don't think we don't have to wait around for Stripe.”
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“You know, I can go from 10,000,000 to 100,000,000 to billion to $10,000,000,000 on reasoning in such a quick succession.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley warns 2026 is when the reckoning comes on whether AI infrastructure spending continues at current pace.
“It's gonna bring so many people with them. But 2026 is like where the reckoning comes. Right? But, you know, will will people keep spending like this?”
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“Or or that's what it looks like based on or, you know, one gigawatt in twenty twenty six ish. And Meta's Meta's, like, trying to do, like, two gigawatts by early to mid twenty seven.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick predicts Trump will balance the budget and interest rates will drop 150 basis points during his term.
“Let Donald Trump is going to balance the budget of The United States Of America. Interest rates are gonna drop a 150 basis points during his term.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts China will stop open sourcing AI models once ahead and closed source will ultimately win.
“China's open sourcing stuff only because they're behind the moment they're ahead, they will stop open sourcing stuff. And at the end of the day, closed source will win. Unfortunately, closed source will win.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AMD will remain in single-digit percentage market share despite being credible competitor.
“I don't think they'll go beyond, like I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share. Yeah. Single digit percentage market share”
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