Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 30 Jun 2022 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
1
thin
23 May 2022 – 23 May 2022
-38 d
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Howard Marks
4
thin
30 Jun 2022 – 12 Jun 2026
+0 d
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Brad Gerstner
3
thin
8 Nov 2023 – 6 Jan 2026
+496 d
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Marc Rowan
5
3 Mar 2026 – 25 May 2026
+1342 d
- John Williams 4 thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states the best downside protection in venture capital is fully capturing the upside.
“the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.”
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Howard Marks
Marks advocates cutting off the bottom tail rather than shooting for the top tail to achieve best long-term performance.
“Approach is very simple, cut off the bottom tail. That's what this guy in the Midwest did.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reveals Altimeter reduced net exposure from 93% at year start to 60% currently.
“For us, our our net exposure today is 60%. Like I said, we started the year at 93.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says his hedge fund is running 60% net long exposure despite bullish AI view.
“Our net exposures are 60%. What does that mean again? Reminder for folks at home. That means I have six out of ten dollars at risk”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reduced exposure to tiny by April 2024 due to fears about the Navarro nuclear option on tariffs.
“By April, we were tiny in terms of our overall exposure to the market because of our fears about I came on this program and talked about, you know, the Navarro nuclear option around tariffs.”
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Howard Marks
Marks quotes Buffett: when others act less prudently, we must act more prudently in our own affairs.
“Buffett says most things best. He says, the less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs.”
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“That felt really good on the way up. That's not going to feel so good on the way down.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says Apollo focused on first lien, cash pay loans to large companies with low leverage.
“And there are companies of which we are one, but not the only one who went all first lien, who went almost all cash pay, who went large companies, who work with low leverage.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan criticizes managers with 30% portfolio concentration in a single industry being disrupted by technology.
“If 30% of your portfolio is in one industry and that one industry is being impacted by technology, you have not been a good risk manager.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts good risk managers will make record profits this year and next from defensive positioning.
“If you were a good risk manager, you are going to make more money this year and next year if it continues than you ever have before because you've been risk off.”
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Howard Marks
Marks explains crisis investing requires pre-raised capital, nerve to deploy it, and clean portfolio to act.
“Nobody will give you money to invest during a crisis. We had pre raised it. And you have to have the nerve to spend it.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says Athene's exposure to levered lending is 0.4% and software exposure is 0.1%.
“Our exposure to levered lending, which people sometimes call private credit is de minimis. Rounds closer zero than to 1% came in at 0.4%. Our exposure to software, 0.1%.”
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Howard Marks
Marks says investors must prepare for less optimistic times even while optimism drives markets higher.
“And part of that means with everything you do, some part of your body has to be saying, yes, but how do we prepare for less optimistic times?”
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John Williams
Williams identifies structural friction between risk functions operating in review cycles and technologies operating in real time.
“We have risk functions that operate in review cycles, but technologies and business processes that operate in real time.”
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John Williams
Williams argues technology now actively shapes how risk managers perceive and interpret risk, not just manage it.
“This is the critical shift: We are no longer simply using technology to manage risk—we are using technology that is actively shaping how we perceive and interpret risk.”
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John Williams
Williams notes most non-centrally cleared bilateral repo transactions involving Treasury securities had zero haircuts according to OFR data.
“Meanwhile, in the NCCBR market segment, use of repo haircuts is fairly infrequent, with two pilot data collections in the NCCBR segment by the Office of Financial Research showing the majority of transactions involving Treasury securities had zero haircuts.”
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John Williams
Williams asserts culture is an operational asset and form of resiliency, not soft or secondary.
“Culture is not “soft,” or secondary. Culture is an operational asset. It is a form of resiliency, a non-technical redundancy, a backup system for judgment”
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