The Minutes

On the record about

Taiwan

3 people · 8 quotes · 22 Feb 2024 to 13 May 2026

Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here

3 of 3 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 22 Feb 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.

The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first

    1. Bill Gurley

      Gurley cites Morris Chang arguing Taiwan's chip competitiveness stems from labor model incompatible with US norms.

      “Morris makes the point that the reason Taiwan is competitive has to do with the labor model that exists there and the type of work people are willing to do and your ability to retain them. And he walks through his history of hiring in Texas and other parts of”

      22 Feb 2024 · BG2 Pod · 1:04:29 · source · permalink
    2. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner cites Morris Chang explaining why Texas cannot compete with Taiwan fab plants.

      “The U. Yeah. Interestingly enough, he ran a fab plant for Texas Instruments in Texas. And he explains why Taiwan, like why Texas could never possibly compete with a fat plant in Taiwan.”

      22 Feb 2024 · BG2 Pod · 1:04:50 · source · permalink
    1. Dylan Patel

      Patel says TSMC approaches 20% of Taiwan's power consumption, projecting 30-40% within five years.

      “And if they were to continue to build out what we expect them to build out in the next four or five years, it's going get to 30%, 40%.”

      13 Mar 2025 · Special Competitive Studies Project · 4:52 · source · permalink
    2. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner argues NVIDIA's $40 billion China business keeps them on CUDA and export bans risk forcing Taiwan conflict.

      “It's $40,000,000,000 business NVIDIA in China to keep them on the CUDA ecosystem rather than allowing them to have a monopoly on the Huawei ecosystem.”

      5 Jun 2025 · Bloomberg Live · 11:33 · source · permalink
    3. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner warns chip ban increases risk China moves on Taiwan given AGI timeline claims.

      “I think it dramatically increases the chances that China is forced to move on Taiwan. Right? We're out there telling everybody in the world that AI is totally existential.”

      5 Jun 2025 · BG2 Pod · 41:23 · source · permalink
    4. Brad Gerstner

      Gerstner says US will go from 0% to 15-20% leading edge chip capacity by 2030.

      “Today, have about 0% of leading edge chips fabbed outside of Taiwan. Right? Almost nothing in The United States.”

      5 Jun 2025 · BG2 Pod · 44:28 · source · permalink
    1. Dylan Patel

      Patel cites estimates of 20% economic decline if Taiwan is invaded, comparable only to world wars.

      “And then subsequently, that that sends the world into a depression. Right? The world has not experienced a 20 free fall since maybe, like, a one of the great wars.”

      13 May 2026 · Swole as a Service · 10:48 · source · permalink
    2. Dylan Patel

      Patel estimates five to eight years of global tool manufacturing would be needed to replace Taiwan's chip capacity.

      “It would take five to eight years of all of the world's tool manufacturing capability Yeah. To even replace the capacity in Taiwan.”

      13 May 2026 · Swole as a Service · 11:16 · source · permalink

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