Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 3 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 7 Mar 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
10
29 Apr 2013 – 13 Jul 2026
-3965 d
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Brad Gerstner
2
thin
7 Mar 2024 – 18 Apr 2024
+0 d
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David Friedberg
1
thin
9 Oct 2025 – 9 Oct 2025
+581 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calls the lifetime value model a house of cards and an excuse.
“I think this whole LTV model is a real house of cards. It's just an excuse to say.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains large capital deployments force massive losses since companies lack infrastructure to absorb funds.
“the only way to deploy that amount of capital is to take on massive losses. There's there's no way to you know, these companies don't have massive infrastructure.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner models Tesla FSD penetration rising from 7% to 20% at $500 monthly maintaining contribution margin despite lower price.
“I'm happy to pay $500 a month. You know, if you get to, you know, 20% penetration, then your contribution margin at Tesla, right, is about the same, even though you're charging half as much.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley challenges Waymo advocates to publish twenty-year financial projections showing how owned robotaxi fleet could work economically.
“Let's build a public Google Sheet of the twenty year financial statements for this thing, and let's put it out there in the public.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner estimates robotaxi revenue per car drops from $140K to $100K due to increased supply lowering prices despite more rides.
“When you do that in self driving, we think it goes down to about a 100,000. Why? Well, you have actually more rides in the self driven car.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Uber was already 20x bigger than the San Francisco taxi market when critics valued it at $4 billion.
“in San Francisco, we're already 20 x bigger than the San Francisco taxi market at the time he wrote it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley warns AI companies trading equity for server capacity don't recognize true COGS and get warped decision-making.
“They're trading equity for server capacity. And so those companies are running on a day to day basis with a high COGS, but they don't know it because they're not paying cash for it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley warns AI companies receiving server capacity for equity don't recognize their true COGS in real-time.
“They're trading equity for server capacity. And so those companies are running on a day to day basis with a high COGS, but they don't know it”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reports rumors that some best-known AI brands have negative gross margins from pricing below cost.
“There's rumors of even some of the best known brands in AI having negative gross margin.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg asserts all biomanufactured food proteins are currently 10x more expensive than commodity prices despite startup claims otherwise.
“No matter what startup tells you, whatever they're gonna tell you, it's all 10 x more expensive. Some of them are coming down.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues the lifetime value formula causes more trouble for founders than success.
“I think people get into more trouble with the LTV formula than they do, then they get success out of it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Uber shifting from burning $2B yearly to generating $10B in free cash flow through unit economics understanding.
“I mean, Uber was burning 2,000,000,000 a year and Dara had 10,000,000,000 in free cash flow last year. Being able to make that shift, it's gonna require an innate understanding of your true unit economics.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley suspects some AI companies are reselling tokens below cost, creating unsustainable growth.
“I suspect there are companies that are selling, reselling tokens from Amazon or Anthropic or whoever at a price lower than they're paying for them. And which looks like growth, but it is unsustainable.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner — BG2 Pod, 1 appearance together