Marks says credit instruments now offer equity-type returns with high single to low double digit yields.
“Today, you can get equity type returns from what we call credit instruments, loans, corporate corporate loans, loans for buyouts.”
Marks says beating competitors requires either more winners or fewer losers, rarely both simultaneously.
“I can have more of the things that go up a lot than you do or less of the things that go down a lot than you do.”
Marks frames the AI investment choice as binary moonshot bets versus incremental gains in established tech companies.
“Or do you want to invest in a great tech company, which is already existing and making a lot of money where AI could be incremental, but not life changing?”
Marks contrasts binary AI startup bets versus investing in established tech companies with AI upside.
“If they have the low probability of success, you should accept that that means chances are good of unsuccessful.”
Understanding current cycle position matters more than forecasting for investment success.
“If you want to succeed in the markets, you don’t need to predict the future. What you need is a solid understanding of where we stand today in the cycle. That alone gives you a considerable edge.”