Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
5 of 6 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 2 Oct 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
5
2 Feb 2024 – 13 Jul 2026
-243 d
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Bill Gurley
3
thin
7 Mar 2024 – 31 Jul 2025
-209 d
- Dylan Patel 4 thin 2 Oct 2024 – 13 May 2026 +0 d
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David Sacks
1
thin
1 May 2026 – 1 May 2026
+576 d
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Gavin Baker
1
thin
20 May 2026 – 20 May 2026
+595 d
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David Friedberg
1
thin
31 Jul 2026 – 31 Jul 2026
+667 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts Anthropic models will match GPT-4 and 4.5 turbo quality in the near term.
“They're gonna have models which are every bit as good, you know, in the near term as chat GPT four and four point five turbo, etcetera.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Tesla replaced coded self-driving with neural network using driver videos as input and controls as output.
“What we learned this week is that they've completely tossed all of that out and gone with a neural network model where they're uploading videos from their best drivers.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner confirms data clouds pay revenue share to open AI models, though amount is unknown.
“I can definitely confirm that the data clouds are paying a revenue share to the open models. I don't know what the revenue share is, but there will be some compensation.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues closed AI models will struggle to get funding as large CapEx spending clears the market of competitors.
“So I think to your point, by throwing down on the CapEx that you're going to spend, you are clearing the market of potential competitors.”
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“if they put them all in one cluster, they could have a bigger model than any of the labs next year. Right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports AI models improved from under 4% to 70% on Frontier Math in six months.
“Like, can't do all the math, all the problems in frontier math. And the models went from sub 4% to 70% in six months.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports AI models improved from below 4% to 70% accuracy on Frontier Math in six months across multiple companies.
“frontier math. And the models went from sub 4% to 70% in six months. Right? And this is from not just OpenAI, but also Anthropic and Google and DeepSeek.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Alibaba's Qwen model has passed 400 million downloads under Apache 2.0 license.
“Of course, that's released like these other models under the Apache 2.0 open source license, so very open, as Bill's talked about.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Zippu raised $1.4 billion and appeared on OpenRouter leaderboards, illustrating rapid Chinese AI emergence.
“I go on PitchBook and I look it up and they've already raised $1,400,000,000. So shouldn't have been a secret, but I didn't know about it, you know.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts new US entrants will co-evolve with Chinese models without national identity like Linux.
“I think you're gonna see new entrants pop up that try to co evolve with the Chinese models. You know, is Linux American? Is Linux Chinese?”
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David Sacks
Sacks reports GPT 5.5 is built on SPUD, OpenAI's first new base model in over a year.
“GPT 5.5 is based on a new base model called SPUD, which is the first base model upgrade they've done in, I don't know, over a year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains OpenAI hides reasoning chains while Anthropic shows them, creating distillation advantage for closed models.
“You go look at like codex or clawed code, you give it a question, it thinks for a while, and then it gives the answer.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says understanding frontier AI now requires enterprise usage-based plans, not consumer subscriptions, due to rate limiting.
“To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex. And you need to be on an enterprise plan.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes speculation that the intelligence gap between commodity and frontier AI will collapse enough that people won't pay premium.
“People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg argues China's open source AI models may deflate model value, shifting it to compute infrastructure.
“Yeah. Perhaps the application layer, but fundamentally, this model energy being shifted to China and deflated and commoditized puts a real wrinkle.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner — BG2 Pod, 1 appearance together
- All-In Podcast also carries David Friedberg and David Sacks on this subject, at different times.