Gerstner predicts Anthropic models will match GPT-4 and 4.5 turbo quality in the near term.
“They're gonna have models which are every bit as good, you know, in the near term as chat GPT four and four point five turbo, etcetera.”
Gerstner confirms data clouds pay revenue share to open AI models, though amount is unknown.
“I can definitely confirm that the data clouds are paying a revenue share to the open models. I don't know what the revenue share is, but there will be some compensation.”
Gerstner argues closed AI models will struggle to get funding as large CapEx spending clears the market of competitors.
“So I think to your point, by throwing down on the CapEx that you're going to spend, you are clearing the market of potential competitors.”
Gerstner notes Alibaba's Qwen model has passed 400 million downloads under Apache 2.0 license.
“Of course, that's released like these other models under the Apache 2.0 open source license, so very open, as Bill's talked about.”
Gerstner notes speculation that the intelligence gap between commodity and frontier AI will collapse enough that people won't pay premium.
“People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay”
Open-source models are gaining market share in token usage while both open and closed models continue rapid overall growth.
“@Jason Agree. Grt competition! Share of tokens increasing at open source models (tho both still early in growth curve & growing rapidly).”
Corporate buyers are increasingly choosing open-source AI models over proprietary ones to avoid vendor lock-in with their data.
“It's not that frontier models are dead; it's that open-source models are surging in interest from corporate America and startups -- because people don't want to give their intelligence to private companies.”
Gerstner argues competition between frontier and open-source models is not zero-sum because both revenues fund American AI infrastructure.
“Brad Gerstner posted that he has heard claims frontier models are dead for 18 months yet argued competition with open source is not zero sum, as revenues from both are needed to fund the annual capex for American AI infrastructure.”