Gerstner warns $120 oil will hurt markets if Iran situation isn't resolved in three to four months.
“A $120 oil will take its toll on the market if we don't solve that over the course of the next three to four months.”
Gerstner explains recent market decline as rising uncertainty increasing discount rates and compressing multiples.
“When uncertainty goes up, discount rates go up, risk premiums go up, multiples come down, markets come down. That's that's the explanation for the last four weeks in the market.”
Gerstner warns Nasdaq at all-time high amid slowing economy, light earnings, and AI disruption.
“And the backdrop is that the economy is slowing, earnings are coming in lighter than people expected, and AI is creating more disruption, creating more uncertainty than we expected.”
BG2 Pod
“He said to me, the IPO market is slow in volume terms for lack of supply, not lack of demand. And I've been making this case that the IPO window is wide open.”
Gerstner expects more multiple compression in public markets over next three months despite Tiger's activity.
“You can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets. Right?”
Gerstner reports Altimeter's software index expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet index from 23x to 33x.
“I feel obliged to do that. We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.”
Gerstner reports software multiples expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet from 23x to 33x in 2020.
“We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.”
Gerstner notes internet multiples expanded from 23x to 33x in 2020, mirroring 2018 Q4 contraction without COVID.
“If you look at the multiple expansion that's occurred, it's almost the identical mirror image of the multiple contraction that occurred in the fall of twenty eighteen. In Q4 twenty eighteen, we didn't have COVID.”
Gerstner argues markets correctly priced digital transformation arc despite initial concerns after 50% bounce in May.
“What it has been slow in pricing in is how dramatically different the arc will be for many of these digital businesses. I remember having conversations with Rich and many others in May.”
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