Gerstner predicts a robust back half if OpenAI hits $100 billion exit revenue and IPOs this year.
“If that revenue is on track, right, if they're headed to a $100,000,000,000 of exit revenue, you know, this year and and and have an IPO in the back half, I think you could see a really robust, you know, back half of the year.”
Gerstner says SpaceX IPO is rumored for June 12 at the New York Stock Exchange.
“We have incredible IPOs coming starting with SpaceX rumored on June 12. Hopefully, I'll be back in the New York Stock Exchange with you guys.”
Gerstner states SpaceX IPO will raise approximately $75 billion and is rumored for June 12.
“It's gonna be an incredible IPO. It's gonna raise about 75 it's gonna raise about $75,000,000,000.”
Gerstner predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will go public within twelve to eighteen months.
“Over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months, both Anthropic and OpenAI will come public would be my guess.”
Gerstner calculates OpenAI could IPO at a trillion dollar valuation at 10x $100 billion revenue, below Facebook's IPO multiple.
“if you guys went public at 10 times 100,000,000,000 in revenue, right, which would be I think a lower multiple than Facebook went public at, a lower multiple than a lot of other big consumer companies went public at, That would put you at a trillion dollars.”
Gerstner argues regulatory burdens keep companies private longer, harming retail investors.
“I think we're better off as a country when these companies are coming public sooner. But that's that's in fact what's happened. So we invest early.”
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“He said to me, the IPO market is slow in volume terms for lack of supply, not lack of demand. And I've been making this case that the IPO window is wide open.”
Gerstner identifies deep private capital from sovereign wealth funds as structural change preventing companies from going public unlike past decades.
“And if you look at the private market alternatives for them for capital, we didn't have sovereign wealth funds that were writing multi billion dollar checks at that point in time.”
Gerstner reveals Altimeter tracked 100 potential IPOs in 2021, three in 2022, and zero in 2023 year-to-date.
“So that was 46 in 2020, a 100 in 2021, three in 2022, and zero year to date in 2023.”
Gerstner says IPO investors today demand significantly higher returns than 2021 deals as margin of safety.
“anybody who does an IPO today, okay, is going to demand a, you know, a rate of return into that offering that is a significant margin of safety relative to all deals that were done in 2021.”
Gerstner claims Grab achieved 20-30% higher valuation than traditional IPO would have delivered.
“So in a traditional IPO, let's say you have a $10,000,000,000 enterprise value raising a billion dollars. If it's being underpriced, he would argue structurally by 40%.”
Gerstner criticizes traditional IPOs as year-long processes where companies don't know pricing or shareholders until the end.
“It's a year long process where you don't know the price for your shares or even who your shareholders are going to be until the end of the line.”
Gerstner argues traditional IPO bank fees of 6-7% plus historical-only financials leave investors unable to evaluate high-growth companies.
“And on top of that, of course, you can only give historical financials, which leaves most investors in the dark about a high growth company's future prospects.”
Gerstner says Altimeter's SPAC model lets founders set their own price and select their shareholders.
“You set the price, you tell the story with forward looking forecasts. We serve up a world class group of mutual funds and hedge funds as your shareholders. You ring the bell, it's your IPO.”
Gerstner says Altimeter's SPAC model lets companies set their own price and charges zero fees to the company.
“You set the price, you tell the story with forward looking forecasts. We serve up a world class group of mutual funds and hedge funds as your shareholders.”
post Gerstner says many Anthropic VCs plan to buy more shares in the IPO rather than sell
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