Gerstner notes 1990s experts wrongly predicted debt-to-GDP would rise to 80%; instead it fell from 60 to 40.
“in 1993, debt to GDP was supposed to go from 40 to or 60 to 80 by experts, it in fact went from 60 to 40. Yes. So experts can be wrong by a lot.”
Gerstner says NVIDIA EPS was forecast at $5.70 but ended up at $25, far exceeding expectations.
“The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be $5.70, and now it looks like it's gonna be $25.”
Gerstner cites Morgan Stanley research showing super cycles are systematically underestimated by about 40% at their start.
“When I think about what's going on here of course they show they went back and did some math against initial estimates and said, you know, super cycles are about 40% underestimated at the start.”
Gerstner recalls NVIDIA data center revenue forecasts shifted from -6% to +25% last year.
“Think about NVIDIA at the start of last year. Data center revenues were expected to shrink by 6%. Right?”
Gerstner says Altimeter's NVIDIA numbers remain well above Street consensus for this year.
“Our numbers are still well above the street for this year. I think there's a lot of doubt. You know, the the common, discussion at the end of last year”
Gerstner cites Kashkari's June 2021 forecast of no rate hikes until 2024 as evidence of Fed miscalculation.
“He says we're not gonna have rate hikes until 2024. That's how wrong the Fed's forecast was in June 2021 because they were making the argument that inflation was transient.”