Gerstner reveals Altimeter held an investor day before ChatGPT's release focused on cloud data migration and AI applications.
“We hosted an investor day last year before chat GPT came out, and the the the thesis or the theme of the investor day was all the world's data moving to the cloud, augmented and intelligent applications being built on top of it.”
Gerstner contends GPT has become the default verb for AI, not Google's Bard.
“So what is the verb in the age of AI? Do you bard or do you chat GPT? GPT has become the default verb for all things AI.”
Gerstner would rename OpenAI to ChatGPT and focus entirely on consumer rather than enterprise business.
“On the consumer side, which is where I get a lot more excited about OpenAI, is I say, You are the verb. I would rename the company ChatGPT.”
Gerstner conducted search experiment with Paul Reeder showing ChatGPT delivered answer instantly versus three to four minutes on Google.
“I said to Paul, you use Google and I'll use ChatGPT. I got the answer instantaneously. It took him three or four minutes of hunting and pecking around.”
Gerstner reports using ChatGPT exclusively instead of Google for a 45-minute tutoring session with his son.
“I found myself we never opened Google a single time, Bill. And it really unlocked a lot of learning and led to this forty five minute conversation back and forth that we had.”
Gerstner doubts ChatGPT and SearchGPT metrics will support reaching a billion users.
“I don't think we're seeing the metrics, you know, from ChatGPT and even SearchGPT that are going to lead to the breakout needed to get to that billion users.”
Gerstner notes stocks are up 60% in six quarters since Q1 2023 when ChatGPT launched.
“So that's just six quarters ago. Right after chat GPT hit the screens, you know, stocks are up 60%.”
Gerstner says ChatGPT consumed much of his former search time, yet Google search revenues remain unaffected.
“ChatGPT has consumed an extraordinary percentage of the time and energy that I used to spend in search.”
Gerstner argues OpenAI could 2-3x ChatGPT users without model improvements since consumers barely use current capabilities.
“OpenAI could double triple the number of users of ChatGPT with frankly not making any improvements in the core model because consumers today barely scratch the surface on core model capabilities.”
Gerstner says ChatGPT reached a billion searches daily eight years faster than Google did.
“ChatGPT got to a billion searches a day. Eight years faster than Google did. Is not internet time. Is AI hyper speed. It is way faster.”
Gerstner reports Google page views drop 8-11% peak to trough after users subscribe to ChatGPT.
“And you can see peak to trough is down 8% year over year. Peak to trough is, let's say, down 11.”
Gerstner's data shows Google page views grow 4% annually for users without ChatGPT subscriptions, contrasting with ChatGPT subscribers.
“absent ChatGDP, ChatGPT, maybe Google page views for a particular user are growing 4% per year. So we are consuming more Google.”
Gerstner's analysis shows Google page views decline 8-11% year-over-year for users who subscribe to ChatGPT.
“And you can see peak to trough is down 8% year over year. Peak to trough is, let's say, down 11. So clearly, page views are going down,”
Gerstner says Google page views grow 4% annually per user before ChatGPT subscription adoption.
“what you see on that chart is that absent ChatGDP, ChatGPT, maybe Google page views for a particular user are growing 4% per year.”
Gerstner notes the world changed dramatically in 24 months, switching from Google to ChatGPT.
“Sam's like the world has already changed dramatically over the course of last twenty four months, but people aren't, you know, it's not changed that much about our daily lives.”
Gerstner reports from Middle East that ChatGPT is the only consumer AI interface being used globally.
“It's ChatGPT. It is the verb. It is the thing that Google had in 2003.”
Gerstner argues AI is scaling faster than the Internet did, citing his investments in Google and Meta.
“ChatGPT became the verb and I would argue, maybe just So, you know, if we go to this slide right here, You know, AI is scaling way faster than the Internet did.”
Gerstner reports ChatGPT has over 1.5 billion monthly users and 800 million weekly users with rising engagement.
“I think chat GPT at one you know, well over a billion and a half monthly users, over 800,000,000 weekly users, and what most people don't talk about is the engagement.”
Gerstner says ChatGPT has over 1.5 billion monthly users and 800 million weekly users with rising engagement.
“I think chat GPT at one you know, well over a billion and a half monthly users, over 800,000,000 weekly users, and what most people don't talk about is the engagement. Engagement is going up.”