Gerstner notes Satya called AI a supply-driven wave with much experimental work, creating reset risk.
“Satya very quickly said this is a supply driven wave. And I think up to date, that is true. We're we're building ahead of demand.”
Gerstner estimates Trump tax cuts contributed 20% of S&P 500 gains and their expiration would be a headwind.
“some people have estimated that the tax decreases from the Trump tax cuts contributed to about 20% of the gains in the S and P 500.”
Gerstner warns that if AI revenues don't materialize, the public market AI trade will have a problem beyond NVIDIA.
“The market the public market does not have a way to play pure AI outside of NVIDIA. It is going to be watching.”
Gerstner warns the market could see a 10 to 20% consolidation after recent gains.
“But the bigger risk right now is simply that we've come a long way quickly. Right? We could have a 10 to 20% consolidation in the socks or these other technology and AI markets,”