Gerstner says inference costs fell 90% last year and will drop another 90% in coming months.
“What Sunny has told us and other people in the field have told us that inference is going to drop by another 90% over the cost of the next period of months.”
Gerstner says frontier labs still capture roughly 90% of AI economics despite open source token share gains
“@Jason Agree. Grt competition! Share of tokens increasing at open source models (tho both still early in growth curve & growing rapidly). But share of wallet / AI economics continues to be ~ 90% to closed / frontier labs despite dire forecasts. The question is if / when changes. 🧐💰”
Gerstner says frontier labs still capture roughly 90% of AI economics despite open source token share gains
“@Jason Agree. Grt competition! Share of tokens increasing at open source models (tho both still early in growth curve & growing rapidly). But share of wallet / AI economics continues to be ~ 90% to closed / frontier labs despite dire forecasts. The question is if / when changes. 🧐💰”
Gerstner counters slowdown narrative, calling OpenAI and Anthropic the fastest growing companies at scale in history
“@IbrahimAjami Really? OpenAI & Anthropic are the fastest growing companies at scale in history. And cooking - arguably extending their research leads & gaining share of wallet / economics. Open source is also thriving which is grt - but not zero sum. 🧐”
Gerstner claims that open-source AI models are increasing their token usage while frontier labs are capturing more of the actual revenue.
“Token consumption is going up for the open-source guys while share of economics is going up for the frontier labs.”
Gerstner says Anthropic and OpenAI revenue scaling is 10x faster than Google and Meta at comparable scale
“@patrick_oshag Yes! Size of TAM only explanation for Anthropic & OAI revenue scaling - we have never seen anything like it. 10x faster than Google & Meta at comparable scale. 🎯”
Gerstner calls $450B Anthropic 2027 exit run rate too aggressive, sees $250B as achievable base case
“Too aggressive re Anthropic. Base case of $250 B ‘27 exit run rate (same size as MSFT & Meta) seems wild but achievable. $450 B (size of Apple & Google) seems too aggressive given compute & regulatory constraints. Margins also likely lumpy as big compute comes online. 🧐📈 https://t.co/UVbtDz2CSl”