Gerstner estimates Tesla FSD 13 will match Waymo at around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement at Q4 launch.
“At launch in q four of this year, it looks like version 13 will be somewhere around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner estimates robotaxi revenue per car drops from $140K to $100K due to increased supply lowering prices despite more rides.
“When you do that in self driving, we think it goes down to about a 100,000. Why? Well, you have actually more rides in the self driven car.”
Gerstner models Tesla FSD penetration rising from 7% to 20% at $500 monthly maintaining contribution margin despite lower price.
“I'm happy to pay $500 a month. You know, if you get to, you know, 20% penetration, then your contribution margin at Tesla, right, is about the same, even though you're charging half as much.”