Gerstner explains Tesla's new FSD model uses driver behavior as the label, not deterministic code for stoplights.
“Now in this new model, it's pixels in. So the model itself has no code. It doesn't know this is a stoplight per se. In fact, they just watched the driver's behavior.”
Gerstner explains Tesla FSD 12 uses driver behavior as labels rather than deterministic code for objects.
“the driver's behavior is actually the label. It says when we see pixels like this on the screen, here's how the model should behave, which I thought is just an extraordinary break.”
Gerstner models Tesla FSD penetration rising from 7% to 20% at $500 monthly versus current $1000.
“if you assume that you have, you know, penetration, you know, go from 7% to 20%, give it to everybody for free, they drive around for a month, they're like, wow, this really does feel like a human driver. I'm happy to pay $500 a month.”
Gerstner models Tesla FSD penetration rising from 7% to 20% at $500 monthly maintaining contribution margin despite lower price.
“I'm happy to pay $500 a month. You know, if you get to, you know, 20% penetration, then your contribution margin at Tesla, right, is about the same, even though you're charging half as much.”
Gerstner notes Tesla has 7% FSD penetration at $12,000 per customer, with mixed reviews before version 12.
“If you look at it today, they have about 7% penetration of s FSD. That was, let's call it, through FSD 11, and those people paid $12,000 incrementally for that FSD.”
Gerstner estimates robotaxi revenue per car drops from $140K to $100K due to increased supply lowering prices despite more rides.
“When you do that in self driving, we think it goes down to about a 100,000. Why? Well, you have actually more rides in the self driven car.”
Gerstner calls Elon Musk's Tesla compensation package the most shareholder-aligned CEO pay structure he has seen.
“the Elon package is the most shareholder aligned comp CEO compensation package I've ever seen. I would be thrilled if all of my hired CEOs had a very similar package. Right. I'd be thrilled.”
Gerstner emphasizes Tesla derivative lawsuit plaintiff held only nine shares despite seeking billions in legal fees.
“Nine shares. They went up. Yes. So if you consider the fact that, oh, I could be a public company in Delaware. My stock could go up.”
Gerstner estimates Tesla FSD 13 will match Waymo at around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement at Q4 launch.
“At launch in q four of this year, it looks like version 13 will be somewhere around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner projects Tesla FSD could reach 500,000 miles per critical disengagement by mid-2025, matching human accident rates.
“And at the current rate of improvement, right, in q one of next year, they could be at a 100,000 miles per critical disengagement. By the middle of next year, 500,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner notes Tesla's Fremont factory employs 20,000 people and produces over 550,000 cars.
“Tesla, of course, produces cars over in Fremont just across across the bay from here, employs 20,000 people, produced over 550,000 Teslas in the Fremont factory.”
Gerstner says Tesla employs 20,000 people and produced 550,000 cars in Fremont, criticizing Newsom's exclusion plan.
“So Tesla, of course, produces cars over in Fremont just across across the bay from here, employs 20,000 people, produced over 550,000 Teslas in the Fremont factory.”
Gerstner reports his December Tesla Model S drives him everywhere without touching the steering wheel.
“I have a a new Tesla Model s I bought in December. It drives me everywhere. I tweeted about it the other day. I don't touch the steering wheel. I think it's quite extraordinary.”
Gerstner says FSD versions 12.3 and 12.9 convinced him autonomy had arrived.
“And starting in the spring of last year when we saw full self driving, you know, 12.3, and then by the end of the year, 12.9, we just knew autonomy was here.”
Gerstner says Tesla robotaxi needs fastest pickup and lowest price in Austin June launch or no market exists.
“But to your point, Josh, if they don't have speed of pickup in Austin when they launch in June and if they don't have the lowest price, then there is no market for them.”
Gerstner says his December Tesla Model S drives him everywhere without touching the steering wheel.
“I have a a new Tesla Model s I bought in December. It drives me everywhere. I tweeted about it the other day. I don't touch the steering wheel.”
Gerstner doubts Uber's partnerships can match Tesla's full stack autonomous solution.
“I just don't have the confidence yet that that has fully come together and is really going to be able to stand up to the full stack solution that Tesla has.”