Gerstner notes Google compounded at similar rates to other platforms despite his early worries about search's future.
“And I was talking of I was worried about the future of search and the future of vertical search starting in 2010, But look at Google's compounded at about the rate the other big platforms have in The US.”
Gerstner calls access to top tech companies the most asymmetric bet in investing history.
“The the the most asymmetric bet maybe in the history of all of investing is having a golden ticket to have access to the best technology companies in the world today.”
Gerstner distributed $6B last year, exceeding total capital raised in first five funds.
“Last year, we distributed over $6,000,000,000, which was more than all the venture we raised in our first five funds.”
Snowflake grew from $170M to over $50B enterprise value with Altimeter still a major shareholder.
“Yeah, that was total enterprise value of Snowflake when we got involved, and we're still one of their largest shareholders today, and it's over $50,000,000,000 in enterprise value,”
Gerstner says portfolio return targets normalized from 80% in early 2023 to 20-30% now.
“I think the return to target in our portfolio is 20 to 30%, whereas the start of last year, Bill, it was like 80%.”
Gerstner identifies hyperscaler total CapEx at $200 billion as the real concern drawing criticism and return questions.
“In fact, I think if people are gonna be critical of anything, a lot of people are looking at the total CapEx of the hyperscalers now at $200,000,000,000”
Gerstner notes stocks are up 60% in six quarters since Q1 2023 when ChatGPT launched.
“So that's just six quarters ago. Right after chat GPT hit the screens, you know, stocks are up 60%.”
Gerstner earned 100x returns on Amazon in public markets, returns now going to private investors instead.
“So I earned a 100 x return in the public markets. Right? By all accounts, venture capitalists would do back flips for that return, but those returns were going to private market participants.”
Gerstner notes Amazon is up 87x since Blodgett's 2000 call, validating long-term thinking.
“Amazon is up 87 times today from where it was when he made that call.”
Gerstner reveals Altimeter invested in NVIDIA in December 2022, up 10x as revenue grew from $30B to over $200B.
“The stock's up over ten ten times. 10 x over that period of time as the revenue went from roughly $30,000,000,000 a year to over $200,000,000,000 a year.”
Gerstner reports last month was Altimeter's best month ever in over twenty years.
“It was our best month in the history of Altimeter. And we're bouncing off, you know, a bottom that was a, you know, a tough month the month before, but we stayed the course.”