Gerstner notes OpenAI reached $4.5 billion revenue faster than Google or Meta, justifying larger fund sizes.
“OpenAI got to, you know, $4,500,000,000 of revenue in a fraction of the time it took Google and Meta.”
Gerstner says Microsoft's Azure is growing 34% on $66 billion base and expects acceleration in Q1 and Q2.
“Think about that, Bill. Azure is growing at 34% on a $66,000,000,000 base, And they say they expect it to accelerate.”
Gerstner calculates that 4.9% revenue growth would produce a $450B surplus by 2029.
“If we grew revenues at the same rate that we have for the last twenty years, right, starting next year, which is 4.9% per year CAGR for twenty years, we would end up with a $450,000,000,000 surplus in 2029.”
Gerstner claims 30% annual infrastructure expense growth requires comparable inference revenue growth on both sides.
“So, you know, if you think that infrastructure expenses are going to grow at 30% a year, then I think you have to believe that the underlying inference revenues, right, both on the consumer side and the enterprise side are gonna grow somewhere in that range as well.”
Gerstner cites Databricks growing over 60% as example of companies accelerating because AI relies on them.
“I think this quarter, they're they grew over 60%. Snowflake, Clickhouse, these are companies that are accelerating their core revenues because AI relies on them.”
Gerstner says software valuations only recover when companies prove they are AI beneficiaries through revenue acceleration.
“So the only way that reverses, Scott, is those companies have to accelerate their core revenues and show that they are beneficiaries of AI.”
Gerstner notes hyperscalers grew collective revenue from $150 billion to $350 billion in just eight quarters.
“Let me just give you a statistic. It's just eight quarters ago that collectively they were doing a $150,000,000,000 in revenue. Now they're doing $350,000,000,000 in revenue.”
Gerstner cites hyperscaler revenue growth: Amazon 28%, Azure 39%, Google 63%, and Anthropic at historic rates.
“28% revenue growth out of Amazon at tremendous scale or 39% for Azure, 63% for Google, extraordinary. And of course, Anthropic is adding revenues at rates we've never seen before.”
Gerstner says Anthropic posted the most parabolic revenue numbers in the history of capitalism.
“If Anthropic had not shown up with the most parabolic revenue numbers in the history of capitalism That shocked the history.”
Gerstner says Anthropic added two Databricks and one Palantir worth of ARR in April alone.
“Remember, that's two Databricks and one Palantir, okay, in a month that you're adding in terms of annualized revenue.”
Gerstner claims Anthropic has executed the largest revenue explosion in technology history over the past ninety days after being written off last year.
“Anthropic was literally counted out of the game last year, and they've kicked OpenAI's a** over the last 90 days. Bam, you have the largest revenue explosion in the history of technology,”