Gerstner explains Tesla's new FSD model uses driver behavior as the label, not deterministic code for stoplights.
“Now in this new model, it's pixels in. So the model itself has no code. It doesn't know this is a stoplight per se. In fact, they just watched the driver's behavior.”
Gerstner explains Tesla FSD 12 uses driver behavior as labels rather than deterministic code for objects.
“the driver's behavior is actually the label. It says when we see pixels like this on the screen, here's how the model should behave, which I thought is just an extraordinary break.”
Gerstner models Tesla FSD penetration rising from 7% to 20% at $500 monthly versus current $1000.
“if you assume that you have, you know, penetration, you know, go from 7% to 20%, give it to everybody for free, they drive around for a month, they're like, wow, this really does feel like a human driver. I'm happy to pay $500 a month.”
Gerstner notes Tesla has 7% FSD penetration at $12,000 per customer, with mixed reviews before version 12.
“If you look at it today, they have about 7% penetration of s FSD. That was, let's call it, through FSD 11, and those people paid $12,000 incrementally for that FSD.”
Gerstner calls 2024 the ChatGPT moment for full self-driving technology based on deployment evidence.
“Right? That's self reported, right, with with with human drivers. So if 2024 was the chat GPT moment for full self driving, Bill, where we started seeing Waymo's on every street corner in San Francisco,”
Gerstner estimates Tesla FSD 13 will match Waymo at around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement at Q4 launch.
“At launch in q four of this year, it looks like version 13 will be somewhere around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner projects Tesla FSD could reach 500,000 miles per critical disengagement by mid-2025, matching human accident rates.
“And at the current rate of improvement, right, in q one of next year, they could be at a 100,000 miles per critical disengagement. By the middle of next year, 500,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner reports his December Tesla Model S drives him everywhere without touching the steering wheel.
“I have a a new Tesla Model s I bought in December. It drives me everywhere. I tweeted about it the other day. I don't touch the steering wheel. I think it's quite extraordinary.”
Gerstner says FSD versions 12.3 and 12.9 convinced him autonomy had arrived.
“And starting in the spring of last year when we saw full self driving, you know, 12.3, and then by the end of the year, 12.9, we just knew autonomy was here.”
Gerstner says his December Tesla Model S drives him everywhere without touching the steering wheel.
“I have a a new Tesla Model s I bought in December. It drives me everywhere. I tweeted about it the other day. I don't touch the steering wheel.”