Gerstner predicts Anthropic models will match GPT-4 and 4.5 turbo quality in the near term.
“They're gonna have models which are every bit as good, you know, in the near term as chat GPT four and four point five turbo, etcetera.”
Gerstner estimates OpenAI consumer revenue at $2 billion, Anthropic $100 million, Perplexity $25 million from credit card data.
“And and I playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about 2,000,000,000, Anthropix about a 100,000,000, and Perplexity is at like 25,000,000.”
“And and I playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about 2,000,000,000, Anthropix about a 100,000,000, and Perplexity is at like 25,000,000. Yeah. Just I'm guessing”
Gerstner says Anthropic raising $5B at $170B valuation on $5B revenue, unprecedented venture scale.
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a $5,000,000,000 round into Anthropic at $170,000,000,000 In the case of Anthropic, it's, you know, 170,000,000,000 on rumored $5,000,000,000 in revenue.”
Gerstner says OpenAI and Anthropic deals are bigger private IPOs than any public tech IPO in five years.
“I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market.”
Gerstner predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will go public within twelve to eighteen months.
“Over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months, both Anthropic and OpenAI will come public would be my guess.”
Gerstner cites hyperscaler revenue growth: Amazon 28%, Azure 39%, Google 63%, and Anthropic at historic rates.
“28% revenue growth out of Amazon at tremendous scale or 39% for Azure, 63% for Google, extraordinary. And of course, Anthropic is adding revenues at rates we've never seen before.”
Gerstner says Anthropic posted the most parabolic revenue numbers in the history of capitalism.
“If Anthropic had not shown up with the most parabolic revenue numbers in the history of capitalism That shocked the history.”
Gerstner says Anthropic added two Databricks and one Palantir worth of ARR in April alone.
“Remember, that's two Databricks and one Palantir, okay, in a month that you're adding in terms of annualized revenue.”
Gerstner argues Anthropic's success stems from product quality creating demand, not superior go-to-market strategy, with companies being throttled due to high demand.
“It's not that there was some great go to market at Anthropic that all of a sudden they snuck up and blew everybody away. No, it was companies demanding the product. They're getting throttled on the product. Why? Because it's so good. It makes them better at their business,”
Gerstner predicts Anthropic could exit in 2025 at an eighty to one hundred billion dollar valuation.
“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 billion or $100 billion in revenue.”
Gerstner claims Anthropic has executed the largest revenue explosion in technology history over the past ninety days after being written off last year.
“Anthropic was literally counted out of the game last year, and they've kicked OpenAI's a** over the last 90 days. Bam, you have the largest revenue explosion in the history of technology,”
Gerstner says frontier model revenues are needed to fund $1-2T annual capex buildout of American AI
“Narrative violation. Have been hearing for 18 months frontier models dead. Competition w open source is not zero sum. If you want American AI to win u should cheer for open & closed - we need these revenues to pay for the $1-2 T annual capex build out of American AI. 🇺🇸🚀💰 https://t.co/5swFA78sel”
Gerstner counters slowdown narrative, calling OpenAI and Anthropic the fastest growing companies at scale in history
“@IbrahimAjami Really? OpenAI & Anthropic are the fastest growing companies at scale in history. And cooking - arguably extending their research leads & gaining share of wallet / economics. Open source is also thriving which is grt - but not zero sum. 🧐”
Gerstner says Anthropic and OpenAI revenue scaling is 10x faster than Google and Meta at comparable scale
“@patrick_oshag Yes! Size of TAM only explanation for Anthropic & OAI revenue scaling - we have never seen anything like it. 10x faster than Google & Meta at comparable scale. 🎯”
Gerstner says many Anthropic VCs plan to buy more shares in the IPO rather than sell
“@litcapital You might be surprised how many of those VCs are looking to buy big additional stakes in the IPO rather than sell. 🧐📈”
Gerstner says many Anthropic VCs plan to buy more shares in the IPO rather than sell
“@litcapital You might be surprised how many of those VCs are looking to buy big additional stakes in the IPO rather than sell. 🧐📈”
Gerstner calls $450B Anthropic 2027 exit run rate too aggressive, sees $250B as achievable base case
“Too aggressive re Anthropic. Base case of $250 B ‘27 exit run rate (same size as MSFT & Meta) seems wild but achievable. $450 B (size of Apple & Google) seems too aggressive given compute & regulatory constraints. Margins also likely lumpy as big compute comes online. 🧐📈 https://t.co/UVbtDz2CSl”
Gerstner calls $450B Anthropic 2027 exit run rate too aggressive, sees $250B as achievable base case
“Too aggressive re Anthropic. Base case of $250 B ‘27 exit run rate (same size as MSFT & Meta) seems wild but achievable. $450 B (size of Apple & Google) seems too aggressive given compute & regulatory constraints. Margins also likely lumpy as big compute comes online. 🧐📈 https://t.co/UVbtDz2CSl”