Gerstner references Henry Blodgett's $400 Amazon call in 2000 as historical precedent for AI investments.
“I talked about Henry Blodgett's 400 call on Amazon back in 2000. Right? What do you think Amazon is today relative to the $400 call that Henry Blodgett made in 2000?”
Gerstner notes Amazon is up 87x since Blodgett's 2000 call, validating long-term thinking.
“Amazon is up 87 times today from where it was when he made that call.”
Gerstner recounts Amazon peaked at $243 in 1998, fell to $26 after Blodgett's $400 call.
“Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at $243 a share in 1998. But at the start of 2000, it's at $150 a share.”
Gerstner earned 100x returns on Amazon in public markets, returns now going to private investors instead.
“So I earned a 100 x return in the public markets. Right? By all accounts, venture capitalists would do back flips for that return, but those returns were going to private market participants.”
Gerstner praises Jassy's efficiency focus at Amazon retail, expects margin expansion as investment thesis.
“Why are we in Amazon? Because we think the retail businesses margins are gonna go up. Jassy has absolutely found religion.”
Gerstner says he was concerned a year ago that Microsoft's OpenAI partnership would cause Amazon customers to switch to Azure.
“A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI.”
Gerstner forecasts Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates, calling this unprecedented at their scale.
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year. Right?”
Gerstner cites Amazon CodeWhisperer reporting 56% increase in engineering productivity from AI coding tools.
“I think Amazon CodeWhisperer, so this is a cogeneration copilot Mhmm. Is reporting that they've seen 56% increase in engineering productivity”
post Gerstner offers condolences on Owen van Natta's passing and praises his tribute
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