Gerstner estimates 20 trillion dollars in yen carry trades with Buffett borrowing 200 billion yen.
“there are estimates that up to $20,000,000,000,000 of yen was borrowed, and then you invest that in rate yielding assets around the world and you pocket the spread.”
Gerstner reports NASDAQ moved 30 percentage points in sixty to seventy days from trough to recovery.
“It's a 30 move in about sixty or seventy days, which is extraordinary even by the historical patterns that we've seen over the course of the last five years.”
Gerstner notes NVIDIA dropped to $92 on tariffs but has recovered to $180.
“Remember the deep sea moment? Stock stock was down 25%. And then on the tariff moment, the stock got down to $92 a share. It's at a 180 today.”
Gerstner says AI added 100 basis points to GDP this year despite NVIDIA's 225% drawdowns.
“It added a 100 basis points to GDP this year. But remember, this year, we had 225% drawdowns in Nvidia.”