Gerstner's analysis shows Google page views decline 8-11% year-over-year for users who subscribe to ChatGPT.
“And you can see peak to trough is down 8% year over year. Peak to trough is, let's say, down 11. So clearly, page views are going down,”
Gerstner asserts Google lost its dominance in the AI era despite dominating traditional search.
“They were dominant in 10 blue links. They are not dominant in this. There are a lot of other players in the age of”
Gerstner identifies four ingredients to compete in AI: capital at $40B/year, data scaling, compute infrastructure, and distribution.
“I think there are four important ingredients to compete in this market. Number one, you have to have capital, and the leaders are spending $40,000,000,000 a year.”
Gerstner reports some AI models are already priced below cost due to hyper-competitive market dynamics.
“the second thing people said was that the runtime models are just highly competitive and many people think that some of the models are already priced under cost, which goes back to the credit investment theme that you and I have talked about.”
post Gerstner says frontier labs still capture roughly 90% of AI economics despite open source token share gains
https://x.com/altcap/status/2084332694255575131
post Gerstner says frontier model revenues are needed to fund $1-2T annual capex buildout of American AI
https://x.com/altcap/status/2084265833774088591