Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
1 of 4 lane rests on fewer than 5 quotes and is marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 25 Jan 2022 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
9
11 Dec 2012 – 4 Aug 2026
-3332 d
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Gavin Baker
3
thin
25 Jan 2022 – 15 May 2026
+0 d
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Brad Gerstner
8
25 Oct 2023 – 12 Jun 2025
+638 d
- Dylan Patel 6 23 Dec 2024 – 7 Apr 2026 +1063 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites DP Review, a one-person digital camera review site acquired by Amazon for forty to seventy million dollars.
“I love this story of DP Review, which is a website for digital camera reviews.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker notes Amazon spent more on CapEx in two years than in the preceding twenty years.
“It's not a comment on Amazon. It's just a comment on the supplier response. They have spent more money on CapEx in the last two years than they did in the preceding twenty years.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker provides specific numbers showing Amazon's CapEx jumped from $62B over 20 years to $87B in just two years.
“From 1999 to 2019, they spent $62,000,000,000 on CapEx. They're going spend $87,000,000,000 in 2020 and 2021. That's crazy.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley contrasts Bezos respectfully addressing shareholders in his S-1 against later founders' antagonistic approach.
“So if you reread his S-one where he writes a letter, it's titled To Our Share Owners, and he talks a lot about them.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites Amazon CodeWhisperer reporting 56% increase in engineering productivity from AI coding tools.
“I think Amazon CodeWhisperer, so this is a cogeneration copilot Mhmm. Is reporting that they've seen 56% increase in engineering productivity”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner forecasts Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates, calling this unprecedented at their scale.
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year. Right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says he was concerned a year ago that Microsoft's OpenAI partnership would cause Amazon customers to switch to Azure.
“A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner praises Jassy's efficiency focus at Amazon retail, expects margin expansion as investment thesis.
“Why are we in Amazon? Because we think the retail businesses margins are gonna go up. Jassy has absolutely found religion.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel dubs Amazon's Trainium chip the Amazon Basics TPU due to less efficient but cost-effective design.
“Yeah. So so funnily enough, Amazon's chip is the Amazon I I call it the Amazon's basics TPU. Right?”
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Bill Gurley
Patel says Amazon and Anthropic building 400,000 chip Trainium supercomputer proves they believe scaling continues.
“And and because of this, right, Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 Trainium server supercomputer. Right? 400,000 chips. Right? Going back to the whole scaling law is dead.”
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Bill Gurley
Patel reveals Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000 Trainium chip supercomputer as evidence scaling continues.
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 Trainium server supercomputer. Right? 400,000 chips. Right? Going back to the whole scaling law is dead.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner earned 100x returns on Amazon in public markets, returns now going to private investors instead.
“So I earned a 100 x return in the public markets. Right? By all accounts, venture capitalists would do back flips for that return, but those returns were going to private market participants.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner recounts Amazon peaked at $243 in 1998, fell to $26 after Blodgett's $400 call.
“Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at $243 a share in 1998. But at the start of 2000, it's at $150 a share.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner references Henry Blodgett's $400 Amazon call in 2000 as historical precedent for AI investments.
“I talked about Henry Blodgett's 400 call on Amazon back in 2000. Right? What do you think Amazon is today relative to the $400 call that Henry Blodgett made in 2000?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Amazon is up 87x since Blodgett's 2000 call, validating long-term thinking.
“Amazon is up 87 times today from where it was when he made that call.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Google will make five to seven million TPU chips while Amazon targets three to five million.
“They're going to make something like five to 7,000,000 chips, right? Of their own TPUs. You look at Amazon, they're trying to make three to 5,000,000.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says AI companies have bigger burn rates than Amazon or any company in venture capital history.
“Oh, more than Amazon ever lost. And so the the burn rates are bigger than they've ever been in the history of venture capital. And eventually, they're gonna wanna bring those in.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Amazon's CPU server installations have tripled year-on-year with no capacity remaining anywhere.
“So then you've just seen everyone run out of CPUs, Amazon's volumes on CPUs, of CPU servers they're installing have three x year on year, right, from this year versus last year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Amazon's CPU server installations have tripled year-over-year with no spare capacity.
“Amazon's volumes on CPUs, of CPU servers they're installing have three x year on year, right, from this year versus last year. And so there's just no capacity anywhere”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Amazon's CPU server installations have tripled year-on-year, causing capacity shortages and GitHub instability.
“And so there's just no capacity anywhere and that's causing a lot of instability, not just in GitHub but probably other places too.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reveals OpenAI ported entire stack from x86 to ARM to access Amazon's CPU capacity for recent deal.
“A lot of the impetus for the recent Amazon and OpenAI deal was, yes, OpenAI wanted money, yes, they needed compute, but they also just went to Amazon and were like, give us your CPUs, And before, OpenAI's stack was pretty much only on x86 CPUs, but Amazon had tons of ARM CPUs and so they ported the whole thing,”
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“Tranium, by far. Tranium is going to be to 2026, especially in the second half of this year when Tranium three really ramps, as TPUs were to twenty twenty five.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley learned from Bill Miller that network effects justify Amazon growing at unreasonable rates for extended periods.
“value just means that the asset is underpriced relative to what you think it will be worth in the future.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley discovered Amazon was running same-day delivery experiments on top of Uber using burner phones and driver cars.
“And I'm like, what happens at 02:30? He goes, I have to meet at the Amazon warehouse at 02:30.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says most companies over $20-30M in revenue wouldn't run Amazon's experimental hack approach due to accounting concerns.
“I know for a fact that most of the companies I've worked with that have gotten over 20 or 30,000,000 in revenue would not run that experiment because someone would say, oh, we won't know how to do the accounting. We can't like, that's too much of a hack, like, whatever.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley quotes Bezos saying internal experiments get killed only when the last person with good judgment gives up.
“They ask him, when does a internal experiment get killed? And he said, when the last person with good judgment gives up.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- BG2 Pod also carries Brad Gerstner and Dylan Patel on this subject, at different times.