Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
1 of 2 lane rests on fewer than 5 quotes and is marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 7 Mar 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
7
7 Mar 2024 – 3 Apr 2025
+0 d
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Gavin Baker
3
thin
27 Aug 2024 – 27 Aug 2024
+173 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains Tesla's new FSD model uses driver behavior as the label, not deterministic code for stoplights.
“Now in this new model, it's pixels in. So the model itself has no code. It doesn't know this is a stoplight per se. In fact, they just watched the driver's behavior.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Tesla has 7% FSD penetration at $12,000 per customer, with mixed reviews before version 12.
“If you look at it today, they have about 7% penetration of s FSD. That was, let's call it, through FSD 11, and those people paid $12,000 incrementally for that FSD.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Tesla FSD 12.5 is at GPT-3 level and can consistently drive him most places without interventions.
“I think 12 dot five is like GPT three, and it can consistently drive me most places with no interventions. I'm a seasonal driver. I really only drive my Tesla in the summer.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says FSD 12.3 contained all the progress of the previous ten years in one release.
“This year, it's like when we turned on 12 dot three, it's like all of the progress over the last ten years was in that one release from the first time I had that Tesla.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts Tesla FSD will achieve 100x improvement quickly as compute scales to GPT-4.5 levels.
“I think they're going to go really fast to GPT-4.5 compute, which means you're going to get, using these orders of magnitude, you're going get a 100x improvement really fast.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner estimates Tesla FSD 13 will match Waymo at around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement at Q4 launch.
“At launch in q four of this year, it looks like version 13 will be somewhere around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner projects Tesla FSD could reach 500,000 miles per critical disengagement by mid-2025, matching human accident rates.
“And at the current rate of improvement, right, in q one of next year, they could be at a 100,000 miles per critical disengagement. By the middle of next year, 500,000 miles per critical disengagement.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calls 2024 the ChatGPT moment for full self-driving technology based on deployment evidence.
“Right? That's self reported, right, with with with human drivers. So if 2024 was the chat GPT moment for full self driving, Bill, where we started seeing Waymo's on every street corner in San Francisco,”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says FSD versions 12.3 and 12.9 convinced him autonomy had arrived.
“And starting in the spring of last year when we saw full self driving, you know, 12.3, and then by the end of the year, 12.9, we just knew autonomy was here.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says his December Tesla Model S drives him everywhere without touching the steering wheel.
“I have a a new Tesla Model s I bought in December. It drives me everywhere. I tweeted about it the other day. I don't touch the steering wheel.”
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