Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 26 Mar 2022 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
2
thin
11 Dec 2012 – 23 May 2022
-3392 d
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Marc Rowan
4
thin
15 Jul 2021 – 25 May 2026
-254 d
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Brad Gerstner
5
26 Mar 2022 – 2 Mar 2026
+0 d
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Howard Marks
4
thin
4 Oct 2023 – 21 Feb 2026
+557 d
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David Sacks
1
thin
9 Jun 2026 – 9 Jun 2026
+1536 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Benchmark is not judged on IRR and would not necessarily pursue every 20% IRR opportunity.
“Like if there's an opportunity where we can make a 20% IRR someone might go, oh you should do every one of those,”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan identifies hybrid as a $30 billion business offering mid-teens returns with lower risk than opportunistic strategies.
“This thing called hybrid, which is 30,000,000,000, is actually really interesting because it is neither yield nor opportunistic. It is never going to be the highest rate of return.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says he won't invest late-stage now due to lack of price discovery, only early-stage at low valuations.
“You couldn't pry a late stage dollar out of my hand right now because I don't think we have real price discovery going on.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan believes hybrid strategies offer the best risk-reward with downside protection and equity upside in uncertain times.
“You're getting downside protection because the world is uncertain from a geopolitical and an economic point of view. You have enough equity upside that you should have pretty good returns.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains venture firms must maximize upside because IRR depends on hot cycle performance, which may accelerate collapses.
“And that's where we came up with this phrase that the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.”
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Howard Marks
Marks says credit instruments now offer equity-type returns with high single to low double digit yields.
“Today, you can get equity type returns from what we call credit instruments, loans, corporate corporate loans, loans for buyouts.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues waiting until Google's 2004 IPO still captured 95% of all search value ever created.
“you didn't have to invest in search until Google's IPO in 2004 to capture 95% of all ever generated by Internet search.”
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Howard Marks
Marks says beating competitors requires either more winners or fewer losers, rarely both simultaneously.
“I can have more of the things that go up a lot than you do or less of the things that go down a lot than you do.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says data center credit should amortize before renewal given strong near-term demand, ensuring safe cash flows for debt repayment.
“Therefore, for the next period of time based on contracts going in today, we should have very safe cash flows in which to amortize credit.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says now is the time to find the 10% of beaten-down software companies that will benefit from AI.
“90% of the companies that are down deserve to be down. Find the 10 that got thrown out with the bathwater. Find the 10%, right, that are going to benefit from AI.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says now is the time to find the 10% of beaten-down software companies that will benefit from AI.
“90% of the companies that are down deserve to be down. Find the 10% that got thrown out with the bathwater. Find the 10%, right, that are going to benefit from AI.”
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Howard Marks
Marks contrasts binary AI startup bets versus investing in established tech companies with AI upside.
“If they have the low probability of success, you should accept that that means chances are good of unsuccessful.”
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Howard Marks
Marks frames the AI investment choice as binary moonshot bets versus incremental gains in established tech companies.
“Or do you want to invest in a great tech company, which is already existing and making a lot of money where AI could be incremental, but not life changing?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Altimeter's investment thesis for two years has been correlation to intelligence improvements.
“The overarching theme now for two years at Altimeter is we wanna be positively correlated to improvements in intelligence.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says Apollo avoided single-asset AI bets, instead spreading across positions with structures creating convex upside and downside protection.
“We have spread across with the right structures and the right protections with the right risk reward to kind of create convex convex upsides while getting some amount of downside protection and some notion of our money back.”
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David Sacks
Sacks questions whether writing $50 million checks in late venture beats playing the noisy early stage game.
“You know, you're writing $50,000,000 checks. You just kinda wait for the breakouts as opposed to playing in this really noisy super early stage game.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- All-In Podcast also carries Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner and David Sacks on this subject, at different times.
- David Rubenstein also carries Howard Marks and Marc Rowan on this subject, at different times.