Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 6 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 30 Apr 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
13
17 Nov 2017 – 12 Feb 2026
-1990 d
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Brad Gerstner
20
27 Oct 2020 – 2 Jul 2026
-915 d
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David Friedberg
1
thin
30 Apr 2023 – 30 Apr 2023
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 2 thin 21 Jan 2025 – 16 Jul 2026 +632 d
- David Sacks 1 thin 25 Aug 2026 – 25 Aug 2026 +1213 d
- Paul Atkins 2 thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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“The company had only raised $40,000,000. Hence, we had created $60,000,000 in free cash flow, something that's extremely rare in Silicon Valley these days.”
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“Over 60% of the management team's female. Over 60% of the board is female. And I found out this morning she may be the youngest female founder to actually take their company public ever.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Katrina Lake may be the youngest female founder ever to take a company public.
“I found out this morning she may be the youngest female founder to actually take their company public ever.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPO process has devolved from wide marketing to hand allocation among 10 to 15 firms.
“I think there that it used to be that the IPO process was about disseminating and marketing and selling far and wide, and it's become a game of just hand allocating shares to the same 10 or 15 firms.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues direct listings remove steps since IPOs use equivalent opening process the next day anyway.
“And so in the direct listing process, you're actually removing steps because once you do an IPO, you actually do with the exact equivalent of direct listing opening the next morning.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPO allocations transferred $4.5 billion in wealth from Snowflake to allocation recipients overnight.
“And so the day after the IPO, the people that were allocated the stock the night before have 4,500,000,000 in wealth they didn't have before. And that money didn't just come out of nowhere.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues founders who stay private longer fail their duty to maximize shareholder value for all constituents.
“Like the minute you started giving stock to your employees, you're in the game And your job is to maximize shareholder value for all your constituents, your investors, your employees, everything else.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner criticizes traditional IPOs as year-long processes where companies don't know pricing or shareholders until the end.
“It's a year long process where you don't know the price for your shares or even who your shareholders are going to be until the end of the line.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues traditional IPO bank fees of 6-7% plus historical-only financials leave investors unable to evaluate high-growth companies.
“And on top of that, of course, you can only give historical financials, which leaves most investors in the dark about a high growth company's future prospects.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Altimeter's SPAC model lets companies set their own price and charges zero fees to the company.
“You set the price, you tell the story with forward looking forecasts. We serve up a world class group of mutual funds and hedge funds as your shareholders.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Altimeter's SPAC model lets founders set their own price and select their shareholders.
“You set the price, you tell the story with forward looking forecasts. We serve up a world class group of mutual funds and hedge funds as your shareholders. You ring the bell, it's your IPO.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says traditional IPO costs include upfront fees and structural underpricing as the larger expense.
“There's the upfront fee, five and a half, 6%, whatever they're paying on the amount of capital raised. But he would argue the much bigger expense, right, is the indirect cost of the structural underpricing.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner claims Grab achieved 20-30% higher valuation than traditional IPO would have delivered.
“So in a traditional IPO, let's say you have a $10,000,000,000 enterprise value raising a billion dollars. If it's being underpriced, he would argue structurally by 40%.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates over $1 billion in cost savings for Grab employees and shareholders.
“And so if you say it's 30 percent on a $4,000,000,000 raise, that's over a billion dollars of savings. Right? Over $1,000,000,000 of indirect cost savings to the employees and the shareholders.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg states two-thirds of post-COVID IPOs now trade below total cash raised.
“I think two thirds of the companies that went public since COVID are trading at less than the cash they raised to date as public companies now.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says IPO investors today demand significantly higher returns than 2021 deals as margin of safety.
“anybody who does an IPO today, okay, is going to demand a, you know, a rate of return into that offering that is a significant margin of safety relative to all deals that were done in 2021.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes hyper-competition removed liquidation preference protection on IPOs, enabling founders to convert preferences below value.
“There was a term removed from most term sheets that gave investors the right to protect their LICPREF on an IPO, that's gone in most of these cases.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reveals Altimeter tracked 100 potential IPOs in 2021, three in 2022, and zero in 2023 year-to-date.
“So that was 46 in 2020, a 100 in 2021, three in 2022, and zero year to date in 2023.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Instacart will IPO at around $10B versus its $50-60B private valuation, an 80% down round.
“Right? Super high quality company. I think its last private round was 50 or 60,000,000,000 in the bubble, and now it's rumored to be going public at somewhere around $10,000,000,000.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner forecasts 5-7 good-sized IPOs in Q4 2023 and closer to 10 in Q1 2024.
“I think we're gonna see five, six, seven IPOs, good sized IPOs in q four. We'll probably see closer to 10 in q one,”
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“He said to me, the IPO market is slow in volume terms for lack of supply, not lack of demand. And I've been making this case that the IPO window is wide open.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner identifies deep private capital from sovereign wealth funds as structural change preventing companies from going public unlike past decades.
“And if you look at the private market alternatives for them for capital, we didn't have sovereign wealth funds that were writing multi billion dollar checks at that point in time.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains compounding IPO ratchets create misalignment by making late investors want lower IPO prices.
“The the later stage investors that wrote this compounding ratchet term actually want the IPO to be as low as possible because they'll they'll get more shares.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues regulatory burdens keep companies private longer, harming retail investors.
“I think we're better off as a country when these companies are coming public sooner. But that's that's in fact what's happened. So we invest early.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports CoreWeave has over 200,000 GPUs, billions in revenue, $20 billion valuation, and plans to IPO in 2025.
“CoreWeave now has, like, 200 k plus GPUs. Right? Like Yeah. A lot of GPUs. Right? They're doing, like, you know, billions of dollars of revenue.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates OpenAI could IPO at a trillion dollar valuation at 10x $100 billion revenue, below Facebook's IPO multiple.
“if you guys went public at 10 times 100,000,000,000 in revenue, right, which would be I think a lower multiple than Facebook went public at, a lower multiple than a lot of other big consumer companies went public at, That would put you at a trillion dollars.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will go public within twelve to eighteen months.
“Over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months, both Anthropic and OpenAI will come public would be my guess.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues the IPO process is broken due to regulatory capture and most people don't understand how it actually works.
“I think the IPO process almost certainly also because of regulatory capture is remarkably broken. I don't actually think the average citizen even knows.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues citizens mistakenly believe IPOs work like direct listings with price-based allocation.
“I think they think a bunch of people put orders in, you sort them based on who's willing to pay the highest price”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPO bankers handpick both price and allocation, creating expected first-day pops for decades.
“So it's a handpicked price and it's hand allocated. And for the past twenty five, thirty years, you have these pops that have become expected,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says IPO bankers hand-pick price and allocations, creating expected pops as one-day giveaways to clients.
“And for the past twenty five, thirty years, you have these pops that have become expected, I would say. And it's a one day giveaway to their clients.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says institutional demand for Cerebras is around $250-275 range, while demand over $300 is mostly retail investors.
“I would say it's more in that range. That's what I'm hearing from the institutions. I think most of the demand over 300 is frankly retail that listen.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states SpaceX IPO will raise approximately $75 billion and is rumored for June 12.
“It's gonna be an incredible IPO. It's gonna raise about 75 it's gonna raise about $75,000,000,000.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says SpaceX IPO is rumored for June 12 at the New York Stock Exchange.
“We have incredible IPOs coming starting with SpaceX rumored on June 12. Hopefully, I'll be back in the New York Stock Exchange with you guys.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts a robust back half if OpenAI hits $100 billion exit revenue and IPOs this year.
“If that revenue is on track, right, if they're headed to a $100,000,000,000 of exit revenue, you know, this year and and and have an IPO in the back half, I think you could see a really robust, you know, back half of the year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic's billion-dollar operating profit figures will appear in their IPO.
“And so this is this is their financials that they're going to be putting out in their IPO.”
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David Sacks
Sacks claims Dario's regulatory vision would have prevented Anthropic from achieving a successful IPO.
“Because I think if he had if he had realized his dream of this highly regulated AI apparatus, I don't think that company would be set up for a hugely successful IPO.”
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Paul Atkins
Atkins says the agenda includes proposals to transform the disclosure regime to revitalize IPOs.
“This agenda includes a number of proposals critical to realizing that mission by transforming our disclosure regime.”
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Paul Atkins
Atkins describes IPOs as invitations for workers and savers to participate in American enterprise prosperity.
“Every IPO is an invitation to workers and savers to participate in the prosperity of the next generation of American enterprise.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner — All-In Podcast, 1 appearance together
- BG2 Pod also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.
- CNBC Television also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.