Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
1 of 4 lane rests on fewer than 5 quotes and is marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 3 Mar 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
16
11 Dec 2012 – 27 Mar 2026
-3734 d
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Brad Gerstner
43
3 Mar 2023 – 15 May 2026
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 10 5 Dec 2023 – 12 Nov 2025 +277 d
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Chamath Palihapitiya
1
thin
1 May 2026 – 1 May 2026
+1155 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley contrasts past Microsoft dominance with today's five to seven competing monoliths creating more startup opportunities.
“When I got into venture, every startup presentation ended with what are you going to do when Microsoft does this? Right.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley believes Microsoft antitrust restrictions enabled Facebook, Google, and Amazon to emerge as dominant platforms.
“I actually believe in my heart of hearts that the government restricting Microsoft's ability to leverage their way through the browser, open the door for Facebook, Google, Amazon.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley believes government restricting Microsoft opened the door for Facebook, Google, and Amazon.
“If they had been able to tie the browser to search the way they did, the way they went after Netscape aggressively, I think they would have succeeded. They're really good at that stuff.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner compares foundation models to search engines in 2000, saying value capture is uncertain.
“It is almost impossible to know with any certainty, much like it was with the search engines in ninety nine, two thousand, who's going to emerge, where the value capture is going to be.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner questions why OpenAI took a dilutive $10B round at roughly $30B valuation.
“what was their motivation to take such a dilutive round, know, the 10,000,000,000 at what was the valuation at 30?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Satya Nadella told him Copilot is Microsoft's fastest growing product ever, beating Windows and Office.
“Satya, the CEO of Microsoft, who I saw last week, said to me that Copilot is the fastest growing product in the history of Microsoft.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Satya Nadella told him Copilot is Microsoft's fastest growing product ever, beating Windows and Office.
“Satya, the CEO of Microsoft, who I saw last week, said to me that Copilot is the fastest growing product in the history of Microsoft.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says the accounts would grow to $12,000 by age 10, giving kids ownership stakes in major companies.
“At 10 years old, you'll have $12,000 in that account. You see that you own a little bit of Tesla, of of Microsoft, of UnitedHealthcare.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner recounts that Satya Nadella bought his company Faircast for Microsoft in 2008 when running Bing.
“The person who bought Ferricast in 2008 for Microsoft was Satya Nadella. Oh, He was running Bing at the time. Right.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner recounts that Satya Nadella bought his company Faircast for Microsoft in 2008 when running Bing.
“The person who bought Ferricast in 2008 for Microsoft was Satya Nadella. Oh, He was running Bing at the time. Right.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Nadella predicted fifteen years before ChatGPT that Microsoft needed answers, not links, to beat Google.
“Fifteen years before ChatGPT started producing answers, Satya knew that that's where they had to get to if they were going to leapfrog Google.”
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“But, like, the the level of the value that they deliver to the world, if you talk to anyone there, they truly believe it'll be tens of trillions if not hundreds of trillions of dollars.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says MANG (Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Google) went from near-zero VC investing to $25 billion last year.
“we have this explosion in venture capital investing coming out of four companies, right? He called them MANG. Microsoft, Amazon, know, Nvidia and Google.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says MANG (Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Google) went from zero to $25 billion in VC investing in six years.
“He called them MANG. Microsoft, Amazon, know, Nvidia and Google. And so as you can see on this chart, we go from almost no venture capital investing, you know, out of these folks six or seven years ago to all of a sudden this $25,000,000,000, last year in VC investing.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues MANG participation is distorting market prices compared to arm's length transactions with financial investors.
“I do think that it is a really important thing that you're pointing out, which is at a very minimum, I think we can say that the participation of MANG, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, is distorting the price in the market in a way that wouldn't occur if it was all arm's length transaction with financial investors.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues MANG participation is distorting AI startup valuations beyond what arm's length financial investors would pay.
“I think we can say that the participation of MANG, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, is distorting the price in the market in a way that wouldn't occur if it was all arm's length transaction with financial investors.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner forecasts Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates, calling this unprecedented at their scale.
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year. Right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner forecasts Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates, calling this unprecedented at their scale.
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year. Right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Altimeter's best AI bets over the past two years were NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Snowflake.
“the best bets on AI over the course of the last eighteen months or two years, we were fortunate to be in, were NVIDIA and Microsoft, Snowflake.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Altimeter's best AI bets over the past two years were NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Snowflake.
“the best bets on AI over the course of the last eighteen months or two years, we were fortunate to be in, were NVIDIA and Microsoft, Snowflake.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says he was concerned a year ago that Microsoft's OpenAI partnership would cause Amazon customers to switch to Azure.
“A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says he was concerned a year ago that Microsoft's OpenAI partnership would cause Amazon customers to switch to Azure.
“A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Amazon saw almost no customer churn to Azure despite Microsoft's OpenAI partnership advantage.
“A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI. We didn't see that. We saw almost no customer churn.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Amazon saw almost no customer churn to Azure despite Microsoft's OpenAI partnership advantage.
“A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI. We didn't see that. We saw almost no customer churn.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all confirming massive AI inference and future infrastructure investments in NVIDIA.
“It's up because Susan Lee from Meta just told us yesterday that they're going to make huge future investments in infrastructure, read NVIDIA, in order to support all of these initiatives.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Microsoft hands out $11 billion annually in RSUs, giving them advantage in recruiting AI talent.
“So that's over 11,000,000,000 a year. And this morning we woke up and read about them taking some employees from a hot AI company in the valley.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Microsoft hands out over 11 billion dollars annually in RSUs to compete for AI talent.
“And when you're handing out 11,000,000,000 a year in RSUs, you know, you've got a lot to play with.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says only a few companies can afford 100,000 GPU clusters that Microsoft, Elon, and Meta are building.
“I think the latest discussions, whether it's Stargate out of Microsoft, a 100,000 GPU cluster, Elon's talking about a 100,000 GPU cluster, Mark is talking about that.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says only a few companies can afford 100,000 GPU clusters that Microsoft, Elon, and Meta are building.
“I think the latest discussions, whether it's Stargate out of Microsoft, a 100,000 GPU cluster, Elon's talking about a 100,000 GPU cluster, Mark is talking about that.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes 64% of Fortune 500 companies are Azure OpenAI customers.
“64% of Fortune 500 customers are Azure OpenAI customers, which I thought was pretty extraordinary.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Microsoft and NVIDIA remain relatively safe investments for AI exposure amid uncertainty.
“I think that if you're an investor, owning some of the companies that you think you're really confident are going to continue to compound and benefit from AI, the Microsofts of the world, the Nvidias of the world, seems to me like a relatively safe place.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner identifies AWS disadvantage risk if Microsoft's OpenAI access proves decisive and Amazon lacks equivalent.
“I think there is a lot of worry about, you know, if Microsoft has access to OpenAI and Amazon doesn't, is that going to put them at a disadvantage if open AI is a runaway winner?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner identifies AWS disadvantage risk if Microsoft's OpenAI access proves decisive and Amazon lacks equivalent.
“I think there is a lot of worry about, you know, if Microsoft has access to OpenAI and Amazon doesn't, is that going to put them at a disadvantage if open AI is a runaway winner?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Satya called AI a supply-driven wave with much experimental work, creating reset risk.
“Satya very quickly said this is a supply driven wave. And I think up to date, that is true. We're we're building ahead of demand.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner proposes dedicating individual nuclear reactors at Diablo to major tech companies for their data centers.
“I could imagine if you had four more reactors sitting here, right, if you could land them at the right price, you could have one reactor for Meta, one for Amazon, one for Microsoft, one for Nvidia, you could have the data center sitting right next to them.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Oracle, Amazon, and Microsoft are all moving forward with nuclear-powered data center projects.
“Amazon is buying this nuclear powered Talon data center facility, and now Microsoft this week announces with CEG that they're going to bring 3 Mile Island out of retirement.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Microsoft and OpenAI have 500,000 GB200 GPUs totaling one gigawatt coming online next year.
“Microsoft slash OpenAI slash their partners for them. And then and then potentially even more, 500 k GB two hundreds, right, is a gigawatt. Right? And that's, like, online next year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Microsoft/OpenAI will have a million H100-equivalent chips in a single cluster by end of next year.
“three hundred to, like, seven 500,000, let's say, but those GPUs are two to three x faster, right, versus the 100 k cluster.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel describes Microsoft's shift from 48-megawatt buildings to 300-megawatt AI-specific data centers for increased power density.
“Here you can see that same data center, that same type of data center vertically. And that's 48 megawatts, or 57, And then this data center center is like 300 megawatts.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Microsoft plans 1.5 gigawatts in one site within two and a half years across four 300 megawatt buildings.
“And so the scale that they wanna reach to, 1.5 gigawatts in two and a half years in one site.”
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“And so the scale that they wanna reach to, 1.5 gigawatts in two and a half years in one site. Now the interesting thing is that each GPU takes roughly 1,000 watts to 1,400 watts.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley critiques Microsoft's near infinite memory phrase as semantically meaningless oxymoron.
“Mustafa at Microsoft dropped the phrase near infinite memory. Now I putting near next to the word infinite, I think is a bit of an oxymoron.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Microsoft expects Azure revenue to accelerate despite already growing 34% on a $66 billion base.
“Microsoft, which is on $66,000,000,000 run rate at Azure, has said they expect q one and q two Azure revenue to accelerate. Think about that, Bill. Azure is growing at 34% on a $66,000,000,000 base,”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Microsoft expects Azure revenue to accelerate despite already growing 34% on a $66 billion base.
“Microsoft, which is on $66,000,000,000 run rate at Azure, has said they expect q one and q two Azure revenue to accelerate. Think about that, Bill. Azure is growing at 34% on a $66,000,000,000 base,”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Microsoft's Azure is growing 34% on $66 billion base and expects acceleration in Q1 and Q2.
“Think about that, Bill. Azure is growing at 34% on a $66,000,000,000 base, And they say they expect it to accelerate.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states Microsoft's inference costs are a few billion for ten billion in revenue but o1 multiplies costs 10x.
“Their cost for that is a few billion dollars for $10,000,000,000 of revenue. Right. If now, obviously, the better model gets to charge more. Right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues GPU capex sustainability depends on hyperscalers generating commensurate inference revenues, citing Satya's disciplined approach.
“It all comes down ultimately to the revenues that are generated by the people who are making the purchases of the GPUs. Right?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calls the Microsoft-OpenAI deal one of the most complex deals of all time.
“The deal between Microsoft and OpenAI, as it's been reported, once again, I've never seen it. Sounds like one of the more complex deals of all time.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says the Microsoft-OpenAI deal with $90 billion profit rights is one of the most complex ever.
“The deal between Microsoft and OpenAI, as it's been reported, once again, I've never seen it. Sounds like one of the more complex deals of all time. They have profit rights up to, like, $90,000,000,000.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Microsoft has profit rights up to $90 billion, unprecedented in any prior deal.
“They have profit rights up to, like, $90,000,000,000. No one's ever signed a piece of paper like that before.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes uncertainty around whether Microsoft will convert OpenAI profit rights to equity.
“And so they also we don't know. You know, it it sounds like OpenEye wants them to convert to equity, and we have no idea whether they're willing to do that or not.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Invest America could pass by July 4, 2026, giving 40 million children ownership in Apple, Berkshire, and Microsoft.
“If the president signs this into law as part of reconciliation on July 4 of this year, that means on our two hundred and fiftieth anniversary, 07/04/2026, we can have 40,000,000 children, 40,000,000 families.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates Microsoft could reach $7 trillion market cap in ten years growing at just 7% annually.
“the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates Microsoft could reach $7 trillion market cap in ten years growing at just 7% annually.
“the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains Microsoft's hesitation: OpenAI has only $14 billion ARR but wants $300 billion in compute.
“How are you gonna how are you gonna pay for this? By the end of the year, it's like 14 right now. Right? Billion dollars on an ARR basis.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states Microsoft has invested $13-14 billion in OpenAI for 27% ownership on a fully diluted basis.
“Microsoft started investing in 2019, has invested in the ballpark of $1,314,000,000,000 dollars into OpenAI. And for that, you get 27% of the business ownership in the business on a fully diluted basis.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states Microsoft has invested $13-14 billion in OpenAI for 27% ownership on a fully diluted basis.
“Microsoft started investing in 2019, has invested in the ballpark of $1,314,000,000,000 dollars into OpenAI. And for that, you get 27% of the business ownership in the business on a fully diluted basis.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites Microsoft's $400 billion in remaining performance obligations as booked business that continues growing.
“you talked about 400,000,000,000 it's an incredible number, of remaining performance obligations last night. You said that, you know, that's your booked business today. It'll surely go up tomorrow as sales continue to come in.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Microsoft was on pace to beat Amazon as largest infrastructure provider by 2026-27 but paused expansion.
“So last year Microsoft was on path to be the largest infrastructure provider by far.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel estimates Microsoft's 2028 capacity is three and a half gigawatts lower than forecasted due to paused buildouts.
“And then the other one is, given our estimates on what your capacity is in 2028, is three and a half gigawatts lower? Sure, you could have dedicated that to OpenAI training and inference capacity.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes OpenAI has not built data centers while Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave, and SoftBank are building them.
“I haven't heard them break ground on any data center. I hear Microsoft building data centers, Oracle building data centers, CoreWeb building data centers, SoftBank building data centers.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says every child will have an app showing ownership of shares in NVIDIA, Walmart, and Microsoft.
“Every child is gonna have on their phone an app. They're gonna see. They own a little bit of NVIDIA, a little bit of Walmart, a little bit of Microsoft.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues most big companies that experience extended degrowth never return to glory, making Nadella an outlier.
“I think it's hard to put what Satya has accomplished in context because it's such an outlier To to go most companies, once they get big and have had an extended period of of degrowth, like where they really slow down, they never come back. Like, never they never get back to glory.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Nadella diagnosed Microsoft as a know-it-all culture and transformed it into a learn-it-all culture.
“And he said, he told everyone we're gonna change it from a know it all culture to a learn it all culture.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley warns Microsoft and Google's AI investments may repeat IBM's mistake of empowering a future competitor.
“I don't think they're dependent on the partner anymore, and it harkens back in my brain to IBM letting Microsoft put the OS inside their PC.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Dan Gilbert who became more known for side hustles than core jobs, creating Microsoft Garage as example.
“In almost every case, he ended up becoming known more for the side hustle than the core job.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains Microsoft's OpenAI deal involves cashless revenue through cloud credits for equity.
“So you get equity for credits and then those credits are used to run workloads on Azure. That is cashless revenue for Microsoft.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues Microsoft's late nineties regulatory threat enabled Amazon and Google to emerge.
“I think that had Microsoft not been under threat in the late nineties, you may not have seen Amazon or Google or a lot of companies you may not have seen.”
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Palihapitiya reveals Microsoft's Three Mile Island energy deal costs more than double the prevailing spot rate.
“Do you know what their forward purchase agreement was? It was for more than two x the prevailing spot rate for energy. More than two x.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says the US is financing nearly a trillion dollars in annual AI capex privately, unlike China's government subsidies.
“I think it's extraordinary that we're financing almost a trillion dollars of capex a year to build out the the entire AI infrastructure without any money from the US government.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner — BG2 Pod, 1 appearance together
- Brad Gerstner and Dylan Patel — BG2 Pod, 1 appearance together
- All-In Podcast also carries Brad Gerstner and Chamath Palihapitiya on this subject, at different times.
- Bloomberg Podcasts also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.
- CNBC Television also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.