“But, like, the the level of the value that they deliver to the world, if you talk to anyone there, they truly believe it'll be tens of trillions if not hundreds of trillions of dollars.”
Patel says Microsoft and OpenAI have 500,000 GB200 GPUs totaling one gigawatt coming online next year.
“Microsoft slash OpenAI slash their partners for them. And then and then potentially even more, 500 k GB two hundreds, right, is a gigawatt. Right? And that's, like, online next year.”
Patel predicts Microsoft/OpenAI will have a million H100-equivalent chips in a single cluster by end of next year.
“three hundred to, like, seven 500,000, let's say, but those GPUs are two to three x faster, right, versus the 100 k cluster.”
Patel describes Microsoft's shift from 48-megawatt buildings to 300-megawatt AI-specific data centers for increased power density.
“Here you can see that same data center, that same type of data center vertically. And that's 48 megawatts, or 57, And then this data center center is like 300 megawatts.”
Patel reports Microsoft plans 1.5 gigawatts in one site within two and a half years across four 300 megawatt buildings.
“And so the scale that they wanna reach to, 1.5 gigawatts in two and a half years in one site.”
“And so the scale that they wanna reach to, 1.5 gigawatts in two and a half years in one site. Now the interesting thing is that each GPU takes roughly 1,000 watts to 1,400 watts.”
Patel states Microsoft's inference costs are a few billion for ten billion in revenue but o1 multiplies costs 10x.
“Their cost for that is a few billion dollars for $10,000,000,000 of revenue. Right. If now, obviously, the better model gets to charge more. Right?”
Patel explains Microsoft's hesitation: OpenAI has only $14 billion ARR but wants $300 billion in compute.
“How are you gonna how are you gonna pay for this? By the end of the year, it's like 14 right now. Right? Billion dollars on an ARR basis.”
Patel says Microsoft was on pace to beat Amazon as largest infrastructure provider by 2026-27 but paused expansion.
“So last year Microsoft was on path to be the largest infrastructure provider by far.”
Patel estimates Microsoft's 2028 capacity is three and a half gigawatts lower than forecasted due to paused buildouts.
“And then the other one is, given our estimates on what your capacity is in 2028, is three and a half gigawatts lower? Sure, you could have dedicated that to OpenAI training and inference capacity.”