Patel predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will take 40-50% of all new compute in 2026, accelerating centralization.
“You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.”
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.”
Patel says the Oracle-OpenAI deal involves many gigawatts of compute with unprecedented four-year revenue guidance.
“It is literally many gigawatts. And then in addition, right, not just about securing OpenAI ridiculous amounts of compute, but what what was really interesting is Oracle gave a guidance of four years.”
Patel notes Oracle gave unprecedented four-year revenue guidance, something no company has ever done before.
“Oracle gave a guidance of four years. They told everyone what their revenue is gonna be for the next four years. No company has ever done that.”
post Patel says SemiAnalysis has more China compute mapped than cited estimate
https://x.com/dylan522p/status/2084461665173848493
post Patel says less compute efficiency means fewer tokens and intelligence for everyone
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