Patel claims China could match individual US labs in compute by 2025-26 through centralization alone using foreign chips.
“China can be centralized enough to compete with each individual US lab. They could have just as many flops in '25 and '26 if they decided they were scale built. Right? Just from foreign chips”
Patel notes Oracle gave unprecedented four-year revenue guidance, something no company has ever done before.
“Oracle gave a guidance of four years. They told everyone what their revenue is gonna be for the next four years. No company has ever done that.”
Patel says the Oracle-OpenAI deal involves many gigawatts of compute with unprecedented four-year revenue guidance.
“It is literally many gigawatts. And then in addition, right, not just about securing OpenAI ridiculous amounts of compute, but what what was really interesting is Oracle gave a guidance of four years.”
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“I think by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth. A humongous amount of compute”
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.”
Patel says SemiAnalysis has more China compute mapped than cited estimate
“@RothRottweiler @aqib_zakaria @hamandcheese @SemiAnalysis_ Idk about all that chief. We have more compute for China mapped than this”
Patel says less compute efficiency means fewer tokens and intelligence for everyone
“@kipperrii Means less compute efficiency so less tokens and intelligence to everyone.”
Patel predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will take 40-50% of all new compute in 2026, accelerating centralization.
“You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.”