Patel argues US export controls are counterproductive because China can now build better chips domestically than what's allowed for export.
“They can build better chips in China, then we restrict them in terms of chips that NVIDIA or AMD or an Intel can sell to China.”
Patel argues current export controls are flawed because China can build better chips domestically than what West can sell them.
“the equipment that is shipped can be used to build chips that are better than what the Western companies can actually ship them. John, Dylan seems to think the”
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as the primary constraint in 2027 after power constraints ease.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.”
Patel notes semiconductor industry doubles transistors yearly but energy industry wasn't prepared for similar growth.
“Whereas the energy industry in America wasn't. And and so, like, initially, people were, like, not creative. They're like, let's do let's do these kinds of gas plants.”
Patel says China's entire culture is semiconductor pilled with romance dramas set in fabs and solar research.
“There are dramas where people fall in love in the fab or dramas where people fall in love and they're photovoltaic, like, solar cell researchers and engineers.”
Patel says China's entire culture is semiconductor-focused, even appearing in romance dramas.
“I think the entire country is like semiconductor pilled. Mhmm. Right? There are dramas where people fall in love in the fab or dramas where people fall in love and they're photovoltaic,”
Patel claims China has the most vertical semiconductor stack and could run fabs independently unlike TSMC.
“China has the most vertical stack in semiconductors today and they're the best at semiconductors in the world because their fabs could still run somewhat on a lot of things because they have built some of these chemical supply chains. Right? Like TSMC for certain kinds of chemicals 100% share from Japan.”
Patel identifies semiconductors as the returning bottleneck, with chip fabs being most complicated buildings requiring multi-year timelines.
“Semiconductors are extremely cyclical. The the the buildings that chips are made in are the most complicated buildings people make. You know, they are they are know, they have multi year timelines.”
Patel identifies semiconductors, AI, and aerospace engines as the only three industries China doesn't own.
“There's only two industries three industries they don't own. Semiconductors, it's AI, and it's aerospace engines. Right? It's those three things.”
Semiconductor production capacity exists but is constrained by a specific component shortage in lithography equipment.
“We could make a trillion dollars right now, but we’re just bottlenecked on the mirrors that go into the ASML machines.”