Patel says ASML projects China will reach 30% semiconductor market share, displacing Western suppliers and creating excess capacity.
“And, you know, of course it makes sense for them. Right? Like, let me have my own domestic industry, but it's gonna create an excess supply dynamic.”
Patel says ASML projects China will grow from under ten percent to thirty percent chip manufacturing market share.
“Go from sub 10% market share in the chip industry to somewhere around 30% market share in the manufacturing industry, right?”
Patel predicts AMD will remain in single-digit percentage market share despite being credible competitor.
“I don't think they'll go beyond, like I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share. Yeah. Single digit percentage market share”
Patel says NVIDIA has locked up over 60% of market capacity in long-term contracts this year.
“NVIDIA has locked up over 60% of the capacity this year in long term contracts alone, and they're buying more on top of that.”
Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic represent 30% of new compute in 2025, rising to 40-50% in 2026.
“When you when you look at the incremental compute added, that's about 30% of the compute added this year.”