Patel predicts Anthropic's revenue growth will match OpenAI's by 2027 based on current trajectory.
“Their revenue growth rate right now implies that they would be OpenAI sometime in 2027, which is a really, really big deal in terms of revenue.”
Patel left Substack when SemiAnalysis reached multi-million dollar revenue with increasing share from non-Substack sources.
“And then I left when we hit a few million of revenue. More and more of the revenue was coming from not Substack.”
Patel says Substack monetization reached hundreds of thousands in months, then millions before he left the platform.
“It got to a few $100,000 of revenue and I was like, Holy crap. And then I was able to start hiring. And then I left when we hit a few million of revenue.”
Patel ran SemiAnalysis full-time for 18 months before monetizing, reaching hundreds of thousands in revenue within months on Substack.
“So I was doing semi analysis for a year and a half full time before I actually launched monetization with Substack. And then that really took off within just a handful of months.”
Patel left Substack initially after reaching a few million in revenue to avoid the 10% fee.
“And then I left when we hit a few million of revenue. More and more of the revenue was coming from not Substack. The reason was like, Hey, Substack takes 10%.”
Patel says his Substack revenue alone reached multi-million dollars, sufficient to fund significant coverage.
“Now, scaled to be And it has scaled to be multi million dollar Substack revenue.”
Patel says Substack revenue alone reached multi-million dollars before expanding beyond the platform.
“Now, scaled to be And it has scaled to be multi million dollar Substack revenue. Obviously, built a lot of business beyond that, even that is good enough”
Patel states AI labs are projecting one hundred billion dollars in revenue by 2027-2028 with 2-3x growth.
“So, these labs are now projecting revenues of 100,000,000,000 in 2728, and they're projecting revenue keeps growing at this rate of like 3x, 2x”
Patel says neo clouds that ranked highest on ClusterMax benchmarks booked significantly more revenue.
“And since then we just released the second version, but in the middle, the clouds that ranked the highest actually ended up booking way, way, way more revenue.”
Patel says Anthropic's $300 billion revenue target for end of decade is actually too conservative.
“when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.”
Patel states Anthropic now adds $23 billion revenue monthly versus few hundred million earlier.
“Anthropics, you know, adding $23,000,000,000 of revenue a month now Mhmm. Versus they were just adding a few 100,000,000 of revenue a month earlier. So clearly, we're in the take off period.”
Patel reports $19 billion Anthropic revenue is driven by code spend, implying industry-wide $20 billion expenditure.
“You look at like quad code spend, right, it's freaking nuts. Right? 19,000,000,000 of revenue for Anthropic now. All of that is, you know, at some multiple is code.”
Patel predicts Anthropic revenue will grow from $19B to $60B by year end amid majority-negative AI sentiment.
“The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,”
Patel cites Anthropic adding $67 billion ARR per month as evidence of expanding AI revenue beyond hyperscalers.
“You're starting to see it with Anthropix revenue adding $67,000,000,000 of ARR a month, but there's so many more firms coming online with revenue streaming in,”
Patel claims code agent revenue grew from a couple billion to over $10 billion in a very short time.
“code agent revenue has gone from a couple billion to north of 10,000,000,000 in like a very short amount of time. And these, the horizon of these has also increased dramatically,”
Patel praises team's title 'I can make your Bedrock' for Amazon Bedrock revenue note
“Team just posted a note with the title "I can make your Bedrock" to discuss Amazon bedrock revenue mix to institional clients. Incredible title https://t.co/CGBXaNoHhc”
Patel says SemiAnalysis tracks changes as they happen, with majority revenue from industry not hedge funds
“@damnang2 Our role is to track what's happening and provide updates as changes happen. Majority of my revenue is industry not hedge funds. Theyre the ones making actual useful decisions with the data. All of these items we reported were true and we explained them. The one caveat is with”
Patel warns ARR as annualized run rate often represents one-time lumpy revenue, not recurring
“Remember kids When someone says ARR is not annual reoccurring revenue It's annualized run rate, btw most this shit is 1 time and lumpy”
Patel observes AI founders with revenue are transforming into neoclouds with value-added services
“God damnit, every one of my AI founder friends who actually have revenue are now just transforming into neoclouds with value add on top”
Patel says Anthropic generates $50 million per megawatt revenue, enabling 5x return on inference spending.
“In the case of Anthropic, the the revenue has gone as high as $50,000,000 per megawatt.”
Patel reports Anthropic now generates up to $50 million per megawatt, a 5x return on compute costs.
“And and what that now enables them to do is, hey, if I spend $10 on inference capacity, actually generate $50 of revenue,”
Patel defends SemiAnalysis against bearish NVIDIA accusations by pointing to their unit and revenue estimates
“@Tanner_Invests @GavinSBaker We aren't. Look at our unit and revenue estimates https://t.co/iNAMUIHSWD”
An unnamed company generates more revenue from AI model usage than Anthropic does.
“They’re making way more money off of using these models than Anthropic.”