Dylan Patel on

scaling-limits

2 entries, 13 Mar 2026 to 25 Aug 2026

On the recordsourced and dated, oldest first

    1. spoken

      Patel estimates total EUV capacity by 2030 enables 200 gigawatts of AI chips, with Altman seeking 52 gigawatts annually.

      “700 EUV tools, three and a half tools per gigawatt, assuming it's all allocated to AI, which it's not, but three and a half tools per gigawatt gets you to 200 gigawatts worth of AI chips for the data centers to deploy. Right? So 200 gigawatts, Sam wants 50 gigawatts, right, 52 gigawatts a year.”

      13 Mar 2026 · Dwarkesh Patel · 42:33 · source · permalink
    2. reported

      AI companies face a physical ceiling when their compute needs approach global production capacity.

      “Okay, at that point, they simply can’t continue tripling given the amount of world compute”

      25 Aug 2026 · dwarkesh.com · Dwarkesh Patel · source

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