Patel predicted memory prices would soar because capacity grows 30% annually while demand doubles.
“Memory capacity is only growing 30% a year for the next three years. And yet demand is doubling, is doubling. And so what's gonna end up happening is memory prices are gonna keep soaring.”
Patel reports memory prices have tripled, adding $150 to iPhone bill of materials versus $50 previously.
“the price of memory is like tripled. Let's call it if it's now it's $12 per gig for DDR. So now you're talking about a $150 versus $50.”
Patel says memory makers have not built new fabs since 2022 due to cyclical nature.
“The memory makers, in fact, have just not expanded capacity. Basically, new they've not built new fabs since 2022. Yeah. Because their their cycle their cycle is so undulating.”
Patel lists NVIDIA's structural advantages across networking, HBM, process nodes, speed to market, and supplier negotiations.
“NVIDIA's gonna have better networking than you. They're gonna have better, HBM. They're gonna have better process node. They're gonna come to market faster.”
post Patel says Micron trades at premium to SK Hynix because corporate governance exists
https://x.com/dylan522p/status/2085191620048326947
post Patel attributes governance issues to Hynix's recent stock underperformance versus Micron
https://x.com/dylan522p/status/2085417667071213619