Patel says xAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's despite no leading model, crediting Elon and Colossus infrastructure speed.
“At least Anthropic's racing, It's Elon, A, and B, they've tackled a problem creatively and done it way faster than anyone else, which is building Colossus.”
“So this is something that I've found very interesting is that we've been trying to build a lot of alternative data sources for token usage, who's using tokens, what models, where, etcetera, why, and it's very clear that people aren't actually using the reasoning models that much in API. Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue,”
Patel questions xAI's valuation exceeding Anthropic's despite lacking a leading model, crediting infrastructure execution over product.
“They haven't released a leading edge model, and yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today. At least Anthropic's racing, It's Elon, A, and B, they've tackled a problem creatively”
Patel claims Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in API revenue, primarily from Claude 4 non-reasoning mode for code use cases.
“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's Cloud four, but it's not in the thinking mode, code being the biggest use case that's skyrocketing.”
Patel questions xAI's valuation exceeding Anthropic's despite no leading model, crediting only their fast Colossus infrastructure build.
“What has xAI actually done to deserve their prior funding rounds? They haven't released a leading edge model, and yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today.”
Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic are receiving 30% of all GPU chips being produced this year.
“30% of the chips are going to them, just those two companies. But that's actually like, okay, well, 70% of the stuff, who's making off well, one third of it is ads, whether it be ByteDance or Meta or many of the other people who are doing ads.”
Patel contrasts Anthropic's multiple technical cofounders with OpenAI where Sam Altman is not technical.
“They've got cofounders who are extremely technical, whereas OpenAI, right, you know, they they they don't have necessarily like, Sam's not super technical. You know, the obvious Greg Greg is a cofounder, he's super technical.”
Patel describes Anthropic as cult-like with more unified AGI vision and mission focus than OpenAI.
“They are a bit of a cult. Right? They've they believe in the mission much more than any other lab. Not that OpenAI people aren't cultists as well.”
Patel predicts Anthropic's revenue growth will match OpenAI's by 2027 based on current trajectory.
“Their revenue growth rate right now implies that they would be OpenAI sometime in 2027, which is a really, really big deal in terms of revenue.”
Patel explains Anthropic's strategy prioritizes solving software engineering and computer use to accelerate AGI development recursively.
“First, we have to solve software engineering, and then we can use that to build all the other pieces. Right? First, we have to solve computer use.”
Patel notes Anthropic's seven cofounders have equal equity and left OpenAI with clear unified mission focus.
“Anthropic, you know, sort of has you know, they had seven cofounders all with, like, equal equity. And these these cofounders were, like, very focused on exactly this mission.”
Patel predicts AWS revenue growth will reaccelerate after consistent deceleration due to Anthropic and new data centers.
“AWS has been decelerating revenue. Year on year revenue has been falling consistently. And and our big call is that it's actually going to start reaccelerating.”
Patel says Anthropic's $300 billion revenue target for end of decade is actually too conservative.
“when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.”
Patel states Anthropic now adds $23 billion revenue monthly versus few hundred million earlier.
“Anthropics, you know, adding $23,000,000,000 of revenue a month now Mhmm. Versus they were just adding a few 100,000,000 of revenue a month earlier. So clearly, we're in the take off period.”
Patel calculates Anthropic added $1.5 billion in compute infrastructure in one month to serve new revenue growth.
“If Anthropic added 2,500,000,000 of revenue, and their gross margin is 40%, they added like $1,500,000,000 of compute in one month. Mhmm. Right?”
Patel reports $19 billion Anthropic revenue is driven by code spend, implying industry-wide $20 billion expenditure.
“You look at like quad code spend, right, it's freaking nuts. Right? 19,000,000,000 of revenue for Anthropic now. All of that is, you know, at some multiple is code.”
Patel criticizes Dario Amodei's response to a hypothetical nuclear defense scenario as the dumbest possible answer.
“And Dario was like, well, you can call us. I'm sure we can figure something out. Like, this is just the dumbest response you could ever come up with.”
Patel recounts Dario reportedly said call us to figure it out when asked about AI stopping nuclear missiles.
“And Dario was like, well, you can call us. I'm sure we can figure something out.”
Patel criticizes Dario's response to hypothetical nuclear scenario as inadequate for government AI policy discussions.
“If a nuclear missile's heading from China to America and we can use AI to stop it, but it requires surveillance and autonomous weapons, what do we do?”
Patel predicts Anthropic revenue will grow from $19B to $60B by year end amid majority-negative AI sentiment.
“The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,”
Patel estimates Anthropic needs to reach well above five gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end to support revenue growth.
“Anthropic needs to get to well above five gigawatts by the end of this year, and it's gonna be really tough for them to get there, but it's possible.”
Patel cites Anthropic adding $67 billion ARR per month as evidence of expanding AI revenue beyond hyperscalers.
“You're starting to see it with Anthropix revenue adding $67,000,000,000 of ARR a month, but there's so many more firms coming online with revenue streaming in,”
Patel argues Anthropic trapped itself in an innovator's dilemma by focusing on CLI instead of app experience.
“But the CLI experience is not the end all be all of agent orchestration and therefore they've really cooked themselves into sort of like an innovator's dilemma where they keep making the CLI better.”
Patel distinguishes OpenAI hiding reasoning chains from Anthropic showing them in code generation models.
“In the case of OpenAI, they don't show you the whole reasoning chain. In the case of Anthropic, they do.”
Patel reports Anthropic achieved over 80% margins on Opus tokens and expects full profitability including stock compensation by Q3.
“That's how profitable they're getting, and their margins on an Opus token, at least Opus 4.8 token, is north of 80 for the API price.”
Patel reports Anthropic is Q2 profitable excluding SBC, expects Q3 profitability including SBC with 80% margins on Opus tokens.
“And I think by Q3 they may even be profitable, including stock based compensation. That's how profitable they're getting, and their margins on an Opus token, at least Opus 4.8 token, is north of 80”
Patel states Anthropic is profitable excluding stock compensation in Q2 with 80% margins on Opus tokens.
“Anthropic in Q2 is profitable, their net income profitable, excluding stock based compensation. And I think by Q3 they may even be profitable, including stock based compensation.”
Patel differentiates OpenAI's sparse model architectures from Anthropic's denser approach with distinct trade-offs.
“I think they're quite different model architectures, in fact. Interesting. Open eyes are much more sparse and that has benefits.”
Patel argues OpenAI models are optimized for GPUs while Anthropic and Google models are optimized for TPUs due to co-design.
“And the way that Anthropic and Google's models are headed, it's actually a terrible decision potentially for them to train with GPUs.”
Patel reports Anthropic achieved profitability and positive free cash flow in April and May 2025.
“Anthropic is free cash flow positive, and they are profitable in q two. Even in April. In April, they closed April's books. They were profitable.”
Patel says Anthropic will turn over a billion dollars of operating profit in Q3 2025.
“Anthropic turned their first gross profit in Q2 in June. And then in Q3, they will be turning a billion dollars of operating profit, slightly over.”
Patel says Anthropic's billion-dollar operating profit figures will appear in their IPO.
“And so this is this is their financials that they're going to be putting out in their IPO.”
Patel reveals Anthropic turned first profit in Q2 and will hit billion-dollar operating profit in Q3 before IPO.
“So Anthropic turned their first gross profit in Q2 in June. And then in Q3, they will be turning a billion dollars of operating profit, slightly over.”
Patel says slowing AI is wishful thinking because the most important competition ever will not stop for kumbaya
“Slowing down AI is a ultimately wishful thinking The genie is out of the bottle The most importan competition ever with potentially immeasurable benefits to the winner will not suddenly have people stop and sing kumbaya While many lab employees have signed, many more havent. https://t.co/YVfjrqFA0v”
Patel says antitrust mechanisms make it illegal for Anthropic and OpenAI to collude on slowing AI progress
“The funny thing about Anthropic and OpenAI people saying they want to slow down AI progress is that this is what Anti Trust mechanisms were built for. It's illegal to collude and slow down AI progress. https://t.co/YVfjrqG7Q3”
Patel says antitrust mechanisms make it illegal for Anthropic and OpenAI to collude on slowing AI progress
“The funny thing about Anthropic and OpenAI people saying they want to slow down AI progress is that this is what Anti Trust mechanisms were built for. It's illegal to collude and slow down AI progress. https://t.co/YVfjrqG7Q3”
Patel jokes about confusing fashion designer Thom Browne with Anthropic cofounder
“Her "Do you know Thom Browne?" Me "The Anthropic cofounder? Ya he's a legend!" https://t.co/oWggWPERkY”
Leading AI labs withhold completed models from public release while using them internally for next-generation development.
“ is available), and OpenAI has gone quiet on Astra — yet both can still use the withheld models internally to build the next versions. Compute price keeps rising. Patel argues the compute supply-demand gap is widening, not narrowing, so cost per token continues to climb; even a pause in model progress wouldn't collapse pricing because demand integration keeps outpacing new supply. Alternative accelerators stay niche. Startups taping out new chips generate real but tiny volumes next to Nvidia, Google TPUs or Broadcom; their ”
Anthropic has finished training Mythos 2 but has not released it.
“ and genuinely alarming for alignment. Anthropic and OpenAI are holding models back. Patel says Anthropic 's Mythos 2 is done training but unreleased (only the classifier-restricted ”
Patel reports Anthropic's Meetos 2 finished training but isn't being released, similar to OpenAI's Astra.
“Meet those two is done training from what I've heard, and they're not releasing the model. OpenAI chain, you know, was like clamoring about Astra everywhere, now they're like, oh, fuck.”
Patel suggests labs may still use unreleased models internally despite not releasing them publicly for safety reasons.
“have they prevented themselves from using Meetos two internally to make Meetos three better? Or have they prevented themselves from using Astra to make Astra plus one better?”
Patel argues labs haven't prevented internal use of unreleased models, maintaining gap between internal and public capabilities.
“So I think that's the you've got the public and and and, you know, if anything, like, the gap between Mythos and public models is still there.”
Patel reports Anthropic delayed Mythos release for months after February completion.
“Anthropic took months to release Mythos. Right? They they said it was done in February. They did not release it until like what?”
Patel reports Anthropic employee stopped ADHD medication after getting Mithos, becoming more effective managing multiple agents.
“the moment Mithos was good, and available internally Yeah. I I I she told me that she stopped taking her ADHD medicine. Oh, come on. And that made her a better employee.”
Patel mocks Anthropic ARR measured as last hour at 2PM times 8760
“Holy shit have y'all seen Anthropic ARR? As measured by last 1 hour at 2PM times 8760”
Patel mocks Anthropic ARR measured as last hour at 2PM times 8760
“Holy shit have y'all seen Anthropic ARR? As measured by last 1 hour at 2PM times 8760”
Competition in AI is intensifying beyond the OpenAI-Anthropic duopoly.
“It is an exciting time to be a token consumer. Competition is heating up, usage resets are being doled out, and the battle for your tokens now extends beyond the OpenAI-Anthropic duopoly.”
Patel says Anthropic generates $50 million per megawatt revenue, enabling 5x return on inference spending.
“In the case of Anthropic, the the revenue has gone as high as $50,000,000 per megawatt.”
Patel reports Anthropic now generates up to $50 million per megawatt, a 5x return on compute costs.
“And and what that now enables them to do is, hey, if I spend $10 on inference capacity, actually generate $50 of revenue,”
Meta reportedly represented 10 percent of Anthropic's revenue while extracting far more value through ad optimization and engagement gains.
“Meta, who at one point was rumored to be as much as 10% of Anthropic’s business, they’re generating way more efficiencies by optimizing their ad algorithms, getting engagement time 5% longer, all these things,”
An unnamed company generates more revenue from AI model usage than Anthropic does.
“They’re making way more money off of using these models than Anthropic.”