Patel claims China could match individual US labs in compute by 2025-26 through centralization alone using foreign chips.
“China can be centralized enough to compete with each individual US lab. They could have just as many flops in '25 and '26 if they decided they were scale built. Right? Just from foreign chips”
“if they put them all in one cluster, they could have a bigger model than any of the labs next year. Right?”
Patel suggests China could centralize all GPUs under one entity if Xi Jinping becomes scale-pilled, avoiding US data center constraints.
“If you're Xi Jinping and you're scale pilled, do you just say x y z company is now in charge Yeah. And every GPU goes to one place.”
Patel says China could centralize over a million NVIDIA H20 chips into one data center if scale-pilled.
“they can centralize the chips like crazy. Right now, oh, oh, million chips that NVIDIA shipping in q three and q four, the h twenty, let's just put them all in this one data center.”
Patel predicts two labs will control most of the world's usable compute by 2028.
“So by the time you're in like towards the end of twenty twenty eight, if this trend continues, which I see nothing that's stopping it, You you've got them just controlling most of the usable, you know, flops in the world on their own.”
Patel predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will take 40-50% of all new compute in 2026, accelerating centralization.
“You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.”