Patel forecasts AI CapEx will exceed $2 trillion by 2028, up from just over $1 trillion in 2025.
“As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.”
Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic represent 30% of new compute in 2025, rising to 40-50% in 2026.
“When you when you look at the incremental compute added, that's about 30% of the compute added this year.”
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.”
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memory manufacturers.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.”
Patel forecasts that 70% of robots deployed in China in 2025 will be domestically manufactured Chinese robots.
“'24, it's, it's rapidly growing Chinese share. And '25 is it looks clear, like, the the market shares is, you know, gonna be 60 is gonna be, like, 70% Chinese robots for China's domestic usage.”