Patel forecasts that 70% of robots deployed in China in 2025 will be domestically manufactured Chinese robots.
“'24, it's, it's rapidly growing Chinese share. And '25 is it looks clear, like, the the market shares is, you know, gonna be 60 is gonna be, like, 70% Chinese robots for China's domestic usage.”
Patel forecasts NVIDIA revenue exceeding $300 billion next year as infrastructure spending reaches nation-state scale.
“NVIDIA's revenue this year is gonna be, like, over $200,000,000,000, and next year expects over 300,000,000,000 plus Google's gonna spend, like, $50,000,000,000 on TPU data centers.”
Patel forecasts hyperscaler CapEx at $455-500 billion for next year versus Wall Street consensus of $360 billion.
“The consensus for the banks is $360,000,000,000 of spend next year across all of them. And my number is closer to, like it's, like, $45,500.”
Patel states AI labs are projecting one hundred billion dollars in revenue by 2027-2028 with 2-3x growth.
“So, these labs are now projecting revenues of 100,000,000,000 in 2728, and they're projecting revenue keeps growing at this rate of like 3x, 2x”
Patel estimates Microsoft's 2028 capacity is three and a half gigawatts lower than forecasted due to paused buildouts.
“And then the other one is, given our estimates on what your capacity is in 2028, is three and a half gigawatts lower? Sure, you could have dedicated that to OpenAI training and inference capacity.”
Patel estimates Microsoft reduced 2028 capacity forecast from 12-13 gigawatts to 9.5 gigawatts due to strategic pause.
“to the pause, versus what we had forecasted for you by '28, you're going to be like twelve, thirteen gigawatts and now we're at 9.5 or so, right?”
Patel states Oracle will grow from one fifth Microsoft's size to bigger by end of 2027 at 35% margins.
“Oracle is going from like one fifth your size to bigger than you by end of twenty twenty seven.”
Patel says Anthropic's $300 billion revenue target for end of decade is actually too conservative.
“when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.”
Patel predicts AI startup revenue will exceed $100 billion by end of year, a claim few believe.
“I think that's an insane statement for a lot of people, but that's what it's gonna be. Yeah. Right? And who believes that number? Right? It's like Yeah. Very few people.”
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memory manufacturers.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.”
Patel predicts AI startup revenue will exceed $100 billion by end of year, calling it unbelievable to most.
“by the end of the year do how many people even believe by the end of the year AI startup revenue is over a $100,000,000,000?”
Patel predicts AI industry will hit $100 billion ARR by end of 2025, with China 10x lower.
“And then what's the economic value of that $100,000,000,000? Now, how much of that is in China? Right? Like, China's number is probably 10 x lower.”
Patel predicts Google will have zero cash flow profit in 2027, spending all revenue on AI infrastructure.
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in '27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on on AI infrastructure.”
Patel predicts Anthropic revenue will grow from $19B to $60B by year end amid majority-negative AI sentiment.
“The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,”
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“I think by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth. A humongous amount of compute”
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.”
Patel's models show $11 trillion AI CapEx through 2029, requiring over $5 trillion in new debt.
“In the modeling that we do, we have about $11,000,000,000,000 of CapEx from 2024 to 2029. Total. Total.”
Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic represent 30% of new compute in 2025, rising to 40-50% in 2026.
“When you when you look at the incremental compute added, that's about 30% of the compute added this year.”
Patel forecasts AI CapEx will exceed $2 trillion by 2028, up from just over $1 trillion in 2025.
“As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.”
Patel predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will take 40-50% of all new compute in 2026, accelerating centralization.
“You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.”
Patel predicts AI labs will scale from tens of billions to trillions in annual spending by decade's end.
“As we go out into '28, it's gonna be more than $2,000,000,000,000. The labs are also taking an increasing percentage of this.”