Patel says ASML projects China will reach 30% semiconductor market share, displacing Western suppliers and creating excess capacity.
“And, you know, of course it makes sense for them. Right? Like, let me have my own domestic industry, but it's gonna create an excess supply dynamic.”
Patel notes the unrestricted 1980i tool continues receiving upgrades through 2023, creating a regulatory loophole.
“But remember the 1980i has continued to be upgraded and there's an upgraded version in 2023, right? And that tool, sort of the line is in between those tool, right?”
Patel says ASML projects China will grow from under ten percent to thirty percent chip manufacturing market share.
“Go from sub 10% market share in the chip industry to somewhere around 30% market share in the manufacturing industry, right?”
Patel reports ASML had 45% of equipment and more of revenue from China despite export controls.
“On equipment though, last year ASML, many quarters they've had 45% of their equipment and even more of their revenue come from China.”
Patel reports ASML had 45% of equipment and more of revenue from China despite export controls.
“On equipment though, last year ASML, many quarters they've had 45% of their equipment and even more of their revenue come from China. And likewise for ASML, Lam Research and all these companies, right?”
Patel calculates three and a half EUV tools are needed to produce one gigawatt of AI capacity.
“you end up with actually, I need about three and a half EUV tools to do the 2,000,000 EUV wafer passes for the gigawatt. So three and a half EUV tools satisfies the gigawatt.”
Patel estimates total EUV capacity by 2030 enables 200 gigawatts of AI chips, with Altman seeking 52 gigawatts annually.
“700 EUV tools, three and a half tools per gigawatt, assuming it's all allocated to AI, which it's not, but three and a half tools per gigawatt gets you to 200 gigawatts worth of AI chips for the data centers to deploy. Right? So 200 gigawatts, Sam wants 50 gigawatts, right, 52 gigawatts a year.”
Patel calculates one gigawatt of AI capacity requires only 3.5 EUV tools costing $1.2B.
“Because we're talking oh, what's a gigawatt cost? It costs like $50,000,000,000 roughly. Right? Whereas, what does three and a half EUV tools cost? That's like 1.2.”
Patel shows that $50 billion in data center capacity depends on just $1.2 billion worth of EUV tools.
“I need about three and a half EUV tools to do the 2,000,000 EUV wafer passes for the gigawatt. So three and a half EUV tools satisfies the gigawatt.”
Patel says US can force ASML compliance if desired, responding to claims EU holds AI keys
“@lithos_graphein hmmm? US can certainly force ASML if they want to. Not sure why you think they cant?”
Patel says no ASML lithography tool can be made or operated without US supply chain
“@voidtarget @lithos_graphein Machine = tool And no, no ASML litho tool can be made and operated without US supply chain.”
Semiconductor production capacity exists but is constrained by a specific component shortage in lithography equipment.
“We could make a trillion dollars right now, but we’re just bottlenecked on the mirrors that go into the ASML machines.”