Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 4 Oct 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
- Stanley Druckenmiller 3 thin 19 Dec 2019 – 6 Jan 2020 -1385 d
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Howard Marks
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thin
4 Oct 2023 – 4 Oct 2023
+0 d
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Marc Rowan
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thin
2 Oct 2024 – 2 Oct 2024
+364 d
- John Williams 36
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Kevin Warsh
2
thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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“I look back and the core PCE was one and a half in '98 and '99 when Greenspan started raising rates again from 475 is currently one seven and he's got them at 1.5.”
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Stanley Druckenmiller
Druckenmiller notes the US is running a trillion dollar deficit at full employment alongside negative real rates globally.
“We're running a trillion dollar deficit at full employment. Apparently, we're gonna have some sort of green stimulus in Europe, and we have negative real rates everywhere and negative absolute rates a lot of places.”
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Stanley Druckenmiller
Druckenmiller blames the financial crisis on easy money bubbles and questions current low interest rate policy.
“I will go to my grave believing that that financial crisis happened because of bubbles created by easy money. And I just don't understand why we need interest rates where they are now.”
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Howard Marks
Marks forecasts Fed funds rate will settle between two and four percent, not zero to two.
“what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four, not between zero and two, the Fed funds rate.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan questions Fed rate cuts given wide-open markets, record equity highs, and rising real estate.
“The notion that we would cut rates. Financial markets are wide open. Equities are at all time high. Financing is available. Real estate prices are going up”
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Kevin Warsh
Warsh announces the updated consensus statement emphasizes promoting maximum employment and stable prices across broad economic conditions for all Americans.
“The updated statement, also commonly known as the consensus statement, emphasizes that the FOMC's monetary policy strategy is designed to promote the congressionally-assigned goals of maximum employment and stable prices across a broad range of economic conditions for the benefit and well-being of all Americans.”
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Kevin Warsh
Warsh says the updates reflect five years of economic lessons to enhance policy effectiveness and accountability.
“Today's updates reflect lessons from the economy over the past five years, and are intended to enhance the transparency, accountability, and effectiveness of monetary policy.”
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John Williams
Williams reports Treasury repo rates fell 15 basis points below IORB in mid-May, causing two basis point EFFR decline.
“Treasury repo rates later notably declined, falling as low as 15 basis points below the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) in mid-May, though they have since rebounded.”
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John Williams
Williams warns low r-star means more frequent lower bound constraints on policy effectiveness.
“A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank’s inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.”
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John Williams
Williams warns low r-star means more frequent lower bound constraints on policy effectiveness.
“A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank’s inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.”
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John Williams
Williams argues specific market factors shifted the reserve demand curve downward rather than indicating reserves left ample range.
“I interpret the remaining factors (seasonally low bill supply, increased dealer repo intermediation capacity, reduced repo financing demand, and a temporary increase in government-sponsored enterprise [GSE] repo investment activity) as ones that induced a downward shift in the reserve demand curve.”
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John Williams
Williams says inflation is about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal, driven by three factors.
“Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. This elevation primarily reflects three drivers.”
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John Williams
Williams states inflation is at about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal.
“Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.”
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John Williams
Williams explains ample reserves deliver adequate liquidity to maintain rate control and smooth functioning.
“In the Fed’s monetary policy implementation framework, an ample supply of U.S. dollar reserves delivers adequate liquidity to the banking system, helping to maintain rate control and smooth market functioning.”
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John Williams
Williams explains ample reserves deliver adequate liquidity to maintain rate control and smooth functioning.
“In the Fed’s monetary policy implementation framework, an ample supply of U.S. dollar reserves delivers adequate liquidity to the banking system, helping to maintain rate control and smooth market functioning.”
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John Williams
Williams outlines three key features for monetary policy: consistent strategy, readiness to act, and disciplined adaptation to changing conditions.
“Third, it implies being clear-eyed and disciplined in adapting to and communicating the changing economic landscape and resulting policy trade-offs and decisions.”
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John Williams
Williams describes how ample reserves and international facilities support dollar liquidity and market functioning domestically and abroad.
“3 International facilities including the central bank swap lines and the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility help ensure well-functioning U.S. dollar funding markets domestically and abroad.”
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John Williams
Williams highlights June FOMC change allowing temporary pauses in reserve management purchases based on money market conditions.
“Many of you will have noticed that the FOMC implementation note was changed at the June meeting to make explicit that temporary pauses in RMPs could occur if money market conditions warrant.”
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John Williams
Williams says 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 moved policy closer to neutral from modestly restrictive.
“By reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, the FOMC has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral.”
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John Williams
Williams says 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 moved policy closer to neutral from modestly restrictive.
“By reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, the FOMC has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral.”
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John Williams
Williams notes Latin American central banks raised rates before the Fed during COVID inflation, reversing historical pattern.
“Until COVID-19, central banks in emerging economies, including many in Latin America, typically had followed the lead of the Fed when responding to shocks.”
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John Williams
Williams critiques labeling forward guidance and balance sheet policies as unconventional, suggesting this makes them appear suspect.
“Indeed, there even has been a label attached to it: “conventional monetary policy.” By implication, other monetary policy actions that have been used—such as forward guidance and balance sheet policies—are deemed “unconventional,” and therefore somewhat suspect.”
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John Williams
Williams confirms FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
“the FOMC decided at its meeting last week to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.”
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John Williams
Williams argues historical scholarship shows monetary policy extends beyond short-term rates to broader liquidity and longer-term rates.
“However, this narrow understanding of monetary policy is alien to the history of monetary economics and central bank practice.”
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John Williams
Williams argues historical scholarship shows monetary policy extends beyond short-term rates to broader liquidity and longer-term rates.
“However, this narrow understanding of monetary policy is alien to the history of monetary economics and central bank practice.”
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John Williams
Williams says ample reserves lie between $1.5 trillion and the current $3.2 trillion level.
“As I said, it’s hard to estimate exactly what constitutes an ample level of reserves. We know that number is lower than the current $3.2 trillion, since market indicators still point to reserves remaining abundant.”
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John Williams
Williams anticipates moving interest rates toward neutral stance over time if progress continues on dual mandate.
“Looking ahead, if progress on our dual mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time.”
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John Williams
Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming inadvertently restrictive.
“Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.”
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John Williams
Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming inadvertently restrictive.
“Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.”
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John Williams
Williams reports FOMC maintained fed funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent at mid-June meeting.
“Accordingly, at its meeting in mid-June, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.”
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John Williams
Williams sees benefits from centrally clearing standing repo operations to improve participation and enhance interest rate control.
“Centrally clearing SRPs would be one way to reduce such costs. Strictly from a monetary policy implementation perspective, there are likely benefits from offering a centrally cleared version of SRPs.”
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John Williams
Williams sees benefits from centrally clearing standing repo operations to improve participation and enhance interest rate control.
“Centrally clearing SRPs would be one way to reduce such costs. Strictly from a monetary policy implementation perspective, there are likely benefits from offering a centrally cleared version of SRPs.”
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John Williams
Williams argues centrally clearing standing repo operations would improve participation and enhance monetary policy effectiveness.
“Strictly from a monetary policy implementation perspective, there are likely benefits from offering a centrally cleared version of SRPs.”
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John Williams
Williams says monthly RMP pace will likely be adjusted soon after April tax season.
“An adjustment to our monthly purchase pace is likely to happen soon. Beyond April, the TGA is likely to decline as the Treasury uses the funds it receives via tax inflows to pay its obligations.”
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John Williams
Williams says monthly RMP pace can likely be significantly reduced after April.
“But, as the Desk said in its statement in December, the monthly pace can likely be significantly reduced after April.”
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John Williams
Williams argues mean spread equaling target does not prove policy optimality under uncertainty.
“Therefore, one cannot judge whether the policy is optimal simply because the mean spread equals its target.”
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John Williams
Williams sees policy as modestly restrictive and room for further near-term rate cuts toward neutral.
“Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral,”
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John Williams
Williams says U.S. r-star models show only a modest quarter to half point increase since 2018.
“This finding that r-star has not meaningfully rebounded is in line with evidence from a variety of models of r-star in the U.S., which show a relatively modest increase of one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point in real-time estimates of r-star between the third quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2025.”
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John Williams
Williams clarifies future reserve management purchases will not represent a change in monetary policy stance.
“Such reserve management purchases will represent the natural next stage of the implementation of the FOMC’s ample reserves strategy and in no way represent a change in the underlying stance of monetary policy.”
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John Williams
Williams clarifies future reserve management purchases will not represent a change in monetary policy stance.
“Such reserve management purchases will represent the natural next stage of the implementation of the FOMC’s ample reserves strategy and in no way represent a change in the underlying stance of monetary policy.”
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John Williams
Williams cautions that overconfidence in r-star estimates risks unmooring inflation expectations.
“Given the wide range of uncertainties, acting as if one knows the star variables when making policy can lead to persistent deviations of inflation from the target that risk unmooring inflation expectations.”
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John Williams
Williams concludes there is no single best way to supply reserves across different jurisdictions.
“In other words, there is no single best way to supply reserves; rather, the best mix of tools depends on circumstances and policy preferences unique to each jurisdiction.”
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John Williams
Williams says potential changes to bank liquidity requirements may eventually reduce reserve demand.
“In particular, future potential changes to bank regulatory liquidity requirements may eventually reduce demand for reserves.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Bloomberg Television also carries Marc Rowan and Stanley Druckenmiller on this subject, at different times.