Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 3 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 12 May 2021 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
8
23 Jun 2020 – 10 Feb 2026
-323 d
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Bill Gurley
2
thin
12 May 2021 – 12 May 2021
+0 d
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David Tepper
1
thin
22 Dec 2022 – 22 Dec 2022
+589 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates that 150 bps lower discount rates should add two to three turns to software multiples.
“If I reduce my discount rate on any growth software company by 150 bps over the next ten years, the multiple will go up by two to three turns, right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Altimeter's software index expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet index from 23x to 33x.
“I feel obliged to do that. We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports software multiples expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet from 23x to 33x in 2020.
“We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes internet multiples expanded from 23x to 33x in 2020, mirroring 2018 Q4 contraction without COVID.
“If you look at the multiple expansion that's occurred, it's almost the identical mirror image of the multiple contraction that occurred in the fall of twenty eighteen. In Q4 twenty eighteen, we didn't have COVID.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Lemonade, Unity, and Palantir are still trading at 20 times sales despite falling 60%.
“And yesterday in preparing for this, I was looking at some of the stocks that are outliers on price to sales and lemonade, unity and Palantir, which have come in 60% are still at 20 times over sales.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Lemonade, Unity, and Palantir are down 60% but still trade at 20 times sales.
“I was looking at some of the stocks that are outliers on price to sales and lemonade, unity and Palantir, which have come in 60% are still at 20 times over sales.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states a 1% change in interest rates causes 15-20% change in valuation multiples.
“the iron law of investing is interest rates. A 1% change in rates leads to a 15 or 20% change in a multiple.”
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David Tepper
Tepper notes going from a 12 to 16 multiple would represent a 33% market increase.
“If it's a 16 multiple, in those days you would have said great going from twenty ten. We talked about those days. I go to twelve, sixteen, that's a 33% increase.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low.
“We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low.
“Look at that peak in 2021. Right? We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains software stocks fell because AI uncertainty reduced visibility, lowering multiples from 35x free cash flow.
“Give them 35 times free cash flow because I had that level of predictability. It was like a government bond. It was a sure thing.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- CNBC Television also carries Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner and David Tepper on this subject, at different times.