Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
1 of 2 lane rests on fewer than 5 quotes and is marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 11 Jun 2011 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
186
11 Jun 2011 – 4 Aug 2026
+0 d
- David Sacks 2 thin 24 Aug 2026 – 24 Aug 2026 +5553 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says venture firm count has shrunk dramatically after endowments reduced illiquid asset allocations post-2008.
“And as a result, the number of venture firms has begun to shrunk rather dramatically.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues daily deal platforms with lower take rates will inevitably attract more customers than high-rake competitors.
“In other words if you had a casino on one side of the street that took a 50% rake and another one on the other that took a 10% rake, eventually all the customers are gonna go to where the rake's 10%. Right?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says carrier consolidation from four to three increases oligopoly power and reduces venture opportunities.
“Having more oligopic behavior within that industry is gonna from my perspective lead to less innovation not more.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says carrier consolidation from four to three increases market power and makes venture funding harder.
“It had already become very difficult for us to seed ventures where the primary customer was the carrier And so now to have three instead of four, you just increase the market power of those of those players.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues oligopolistic carrier consolidation reduces innovation and makes ventures targeting carriers difficult to fund.
“It had already become very difficult for us to seed ventures where the primary customer was the carrier”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley identifies taxi commissioners and taxi fleets as drivers of all Uber legal issues.
“The predominant driver of most 100% of the legal issues is either a taxi commissioner or a taxi fleet.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites D.C. council member whose jailed ex-chief of staff took taxi fleet bribes still deciding regulation.
“C, his former chief of staff is in jail because he took a bribe from the taxi fleet, you know, like two years ago, and he's still on the commission that's deciding these things.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says the government paid doctors $44,000 to implement electronic health records in 2009.
“So in 2009, when the government passed the Reinvestment Act to try and get America going or whatever it was called, they put in place a program where a doctor is paid, believe this or not, paid $44,000 to implement EHR, electronic health records.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says the government paid doctors $44,000 to implement electronic health records under the 2009 Reinvestment Act.
“So, it'd basically be like telling a construction company if you put in NetSuite, you get paid $50.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reports the government has paid $29 billion for doctors to implement EHR software.
“So, the payments for these incentive programs, because I just looked it up to get the recent update, dollars 29,000,000,000.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reports the government has paid $29 billion total for doctors to implement electronic health record software.
“So, our government has paid $29,000,000,000 for doctors to implement software that they weren't naturally implementing on their own.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues that for eighty years we grossly underestimated transportation demand by limiting it with taxi medallions.
“The most fascinating thing for me is that for basically eighty years, we grossly underestimated the demand for transportation services. And we limited it at a city government level with the taxi medallion.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley compares late-stage private valuations to a Bernie Madoff dynamic with unaudited markups creating feedback loops.
“And I think what we see right now is a almost Bernie Madoff like dynamic where capital comes in, it gets marked up without any public scrutiny, unaudited financials.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues finance hasn't faced upheaval like telecom and extracts fees without fundamental value creation.
“And there's a lot of fees that are being raked on things that you could say, like FX, that aren't fundamental creation of value.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues the most regulated US industries like finance, telecom, and healthcare become the least capitalistic.
“what happens is capitalism and democracy evolve over time, especially in The US federal system. The most regulated industries become the ones that are least capitalistic. And so finance, telecom, healthcare are completely,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says lobbyists from regulated companies literally talk to congressmen about what goes into new laws.
“If they're striking a new federal law, like the lobbyists from the companies being regulated are on M Street talking to the congressman about what to put into the bill.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calls healthcare marketplaces extremely dangerous with forces in five directions and misaligned incentives.
“It's extremely dangerous because the the laws of most, marketplaces doesn't exist. You know, there's not a simple gravity. There's forces in five different directions.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley criticizes banks for maintaining slow ACH settlement times for thirty years to protect themselves.
“I these banks made a huge mistake, which is they've sat on their hands with ACH for thirty years, and they did it for all the wrong reasons.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues banks deliberately kept ACH slow for thirty years to protect themselves while other countries mandated faster payments.
“They did it to protect themselves, like, three days to settle a transaction. There are other countries that just mandated UK faster payments.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calculates Silicon Valley companies lost $171 billion over 39 years from IPO underpricing between offering and first-day close.
“And so over thirty nine years, that's been a 171,000,000,000 for Silicon Valley companies, and it's been increasing lately.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley presents data showing top-tier investment banks deliver the worst IPO execution over a decade and 100+ IPOs.
“So this is ten years of data, a decade of data over a 100 IPOs, per underwriter. And what you see is astonishing.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley analyzed a decade of IPO data showing the top two banks deliver the worst execution.
“this is ten years of data, a decade of data over a 100 IPOs, per underwriter. And what you see is astonishing.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states top investment banks deliver the worst IPO execution for companies.
“it turns out that if you go with the best investment bank, you get the worst execution. And that is that's remarkably odd.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reveals IPO underwriters target 20x overallocation, meaning they intentionally ignore 95 percent of stock demand.
“So 20 x over supply is a euphemism for we're about to ignore 95% of the demand for your stock.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reveals standard IPO practice targets 20x overallocation, meaning banks intentionally ignore 95% of stock demand.
“So 20 x over supply is a euphemism for we're about to ignore 95% of the demand for your stock. Intentionally ignore 95% of the demand for your stock.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues banks face a multiple agency problem, serving buy-side clients rather than the companies going public.
“There's an area of study in economics called, the agency problem, and and there's a the variant of it called the multiple agency problem.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains top banks deliver worst execution because they serve buy-side clients, not the company going public.
“So you've got an agent who's looking after multiple parties, the company, but guess what? Also the buy side.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues investment banks serve buy-side clients, not startups, explaining worse execution at top banks.
“So you just have to realize the customer is not the startup. The customer is the buy side.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues traditional IPOs lack market-based price discovery and equal access for all participants.
“In the traditional IPO process, neither of those things are true. You don't have a market based price discovery, and you don't have open and equal access to all.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites $171 billion in first-day wealth transfer over 38 years, $15 billion in the past three years.
“You know, thirty, forty years over the past thirty eight years, 171,000,000,000 in First Day Wealth Transfer. And in the past 50 in the past three years, that's 15,000,000,000.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley traces Silicon Valley's criticism of IPO unfairness through eBay, Hambrick and Quist, and Google's Dutch auction.
“Pierro Midiard had at eBay calling it undemocratic. You know, Hambrick and Quist, Bill Hambrick, twenty years ago called the IPO an insider's game.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley characterizes the average IPO underpricing as a $200 million unnecessary tax.
“So you have a $200,000,000 tax to go public through the traditional IPO route, which is completely unnecessary.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues SPAC craze exists because traditional IPO route allocates $200 million to bankers' friends.
“I think is the SPAC craze because you've created this massive pricing umbrella arbitrage to get a company public where the traditional route means someone gets to allocate $200,000,000 to their buddies.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues SPAC sponsors are capturing allocation power from Goldman and Morgan Stanley.
“Well, if someone gets to do that, the SPAC sponsors are saying, Hey Goldman, Hey Morgan, you don't get to allocate that money to your friends. I'm gonna allocate it to mine.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains SPACs emerged as sponsors arbitraging the $200 million allocation that banks give their friends.
“Well, if someone gets to do that, the SPAC sponsors are saying, Hey Goldman, Hey Morgan, you don't get to allocate that money to your friends.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states venture-backed IPOs left $6 billion on the table in underpricing over two years.
“So last year and the year before, there were about $6,000,000,000 in underpricing across all of venture backed companies. Jay Ritter at the University of Florida aggregates this data.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley claims unions that don't represent gig workers wrote AB5 legislation targeting that industry.
“The SEIU and other unions leaned on the Sacramento legislature to write a law targeting an industry they don't even represent, which I think is also crazy.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley believes Microsoft antitrust restrictions enabled Facebook, Google, and Amazon to emerge as dominant platforms.
“I actually believe in my heart of hearts that the government restricting Microsoft's ability to leverage their way through the browser, open the door for Facebook, Google, Amazon.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley believes government restricting Microsoft opened the door for Facebook, Google, and Amazon.
“If they had been able to tie the browser to search the way they did, the way they went after Netscape aggressively, I think they would have succeeded. They're really good at that stuff.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says traditional IPOs only provide access to investment banks' biggest customers, not all investors.
“The the the primary issues with the traditional IPO are twofold and the SEC nailed them both in their in their draft today, which is that it doesn't provide access to all investors.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regulation typically locks in incumbents who write rules blocking new entrants.
“regulation's the friend of the incumbent. Most of the time when Washington DC leans into a new to to a new industry, you lock in the incumbents, and and the rules are written by the incumbents and make it very hard for new entrants to come up behind them.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regulation is the friend of the incumbent, locking in dominant players when Washington intervenes.
“Most of the time when Washington DC leans into a new to to a new industry, you lock in the incumbents,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regulation locks in incumbents and makes entry harder, so more regulation favors existing stocks.
“So I would say the more regulation actually, the more you wanna own the stock.”
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“You know, it's interesting. I stumbled across a piece that Citadel had sent to the SEC in 2005, where they argued that it should be illegal because of inherent conflicts of interest.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Citadel argued to the SEC in 2005 that payment for order flow should be illegal.
“I stumbled across a piece that Citadel had sent to the SEC in 2005, where they argued that it should be illegal because of inherent conflicts of interest.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley claims people who benefited from $30 billion in IPO underpricing are fighting regulatory changes.
“There will be people that will fight it from a regulatory standpoint. And quite frankly, Brad, they're fighting the SPACs from a regulatory standpoint.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley speculates China blocks US listings to keep capital and tax revenue domestic rather than offshore.
“I wonder I and I don't have any data to back this up, but I wonder if part of what's going on is that the Chinese government wants to make sure that though that wealth is actually kept inside of China, taxed appropriately, and then able to be regenerative in that market.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley speculates Chinese government wants capital from tech companies kept and taxed domestically.
“I wonder if part of what's going on is that the Chinese government wants to make sure that though that wealth is actually kept inside of China, taxed appropriately, and then able to be regenerative in that market.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says IPO pricing process has worsened over thirty years with inherent conflicts of interest.
“And it's gotten worse, actually, over the past twenty or thirty years. The process itself has gotten more mundane.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Japan's antitrust department recently launched investigation into standard IPO practices and conflicts.
“Interestingly, you know, as a side note, Japan's antitrust department just launched an investigation into standard IPO practices and these types of conflicts.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley frames Prop 22 battle as SEIU, the largest lobbying spender in the US, versus tech companies
“They're the largest, spender, in lobbying of any entity in The US against, you know, these companies that are trying to bring new job opportunities to people,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says SEIU charges $420 annual fee to 2 million members outside ridesharing to fund this fight.
“They want their minimum member fee is $420 a year that they charge their 2,000,000 members who, by the way, aren't in the ride sharing industry. They're in hospitality and government and health care.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says SEIU charges $420 annual fee to 2 million members in other industries to fund rideshare lawsuits
“They want their minimum member fee is $420 a year that they charge their 2,000,000 members who, by the way, aren't in the ride sharing industry.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says SEIU charges $420 annual fee to 2 million members outside ridesharing to fund lawsuits in the industry.
“their minimum member fee is $420 a year that they charge their 2,000,000 members who, by the way, aren't in the ride sharing industry. They're in hospitality and government and health care.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Robinhood makes 4x more revenue per options trade than stock trade due to payment for order flow.
“So if you look at the Robinhood filings, they make about 4x the amount of revenue on a option trade than they do a stock trade.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley claims legacy IPO process transferred $200 billion over forty years to bank clients, $30 billion last year.
“the legacy IPO process has devolved into this process where a huge one day gains are transferred from the investment banks to their trading clients.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states that IPO underpricing has transferred $200 billion over forty years, $30 billion in the last year alone.
“And that number's 200,000,000,000 over the past forty years, 30,000,000,000 just last year. So it's actually gotten worse.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues governance tokens without economic rights would be worth a small fraction of tokens with rake ability.
“I think it's a fundamental question if that term weren't in the DAO or if instead it said the community will never rake a transaction, what would that do to the value of Uniswap?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites $44 billion spent paying doctors to implement EHR systems as regulatory capture example.
“of my favorite examples, the Obama administration came up with this program where they spent $44,000,000,000 paying doctors to implement EHR systems.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes how telecom lobbyists drafted legislation directly, contradicting civic education about how laws are made.
“They had put a bill on Governor Rindle's desk, proposal drafted by lobbyists for the telecommunications companies. This isn't what I learned on Schoolhouse Rock.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes telecom market share consolidated from 48% to 85% after 1996 Telecommunications Act.
“In 1996, the top four had 48 market share. Four, five years later, after this heralded legislation, they're up to 85%. That didn't work. Let's check-in on the second one. Were they promoting innovation?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley shows Telecom Act of 1996 increased top four market share from 48% to 85%, opposite of stated goal.
“In 1996, the top four had 48 market share. Four, five years later, after this heralded legislation, they're up to 85%. That didn't work.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley shows telecom regulation killed innovation: VC investment dropped from 15% of total to below 1% in ten years.
“This used to be 15% of what VCs did. Within ten years, it had gone below 1%, and a year later, the MVCA stopped tracking it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley quotes Nobel laureate Stigler that regulation is acquired by industry for its own benefit.
“As a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley quotes Stigler's regulatory capture theory: regulation is acquired by industry and designed for its benefit.
“As a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit. I'd like to say regulation is the friend of the incumbent.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes Epic's CEO was the only corporate representative on Obama's health IT council and was a major donor.
“Obama put her on his health IT council. She was the only corporate representative. Should not surprise you that, she's a major donor to Obama.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes $38 billion program paying doctors $44,000 each to buy electronic health record software.
“They came up with a brilliant idea. I have to assume she helped encourage this. Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,000,000,000.”
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“I have to assume she helped encourage this. Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,000,000,000. This is true. You can look it up.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Obama's stimulus included $38 billion paying doctors $44,000 each to buy EHR software.
“Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,000,000,000. This is true. You can look it up. I'm not making it up. $44,000, give it to a doctor, implement some software.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says DOJ fined Epic competitors $155 million, $57 million, and $145 million for lacking mandated features.
“But they got the Department of Justice to enforce people that didn't have the feature set that were getting the payments, and you had three record fines, 155,000,000, 57,000,000, 145,000,000 against the lesser competitors of Epic. Unreal.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Germany validated 96 COVID test vendors while US approved only three.
“Germany leaned heavily into rapid tests. They got their scientists together, and they evaluated a 122 different vendors and validated 96 of them.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Germany validated 96 COVID test vendors, resulting in prices of 75 cents per test.
“Here they are on the right, 96 different vendors that they ok'd. And as a result, in the German market, you could buy five tests for $3.75 or €75 cents a test.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reveals FDA antigen test overseer Timothy Stenzel previously worked five years at Quidel and four at Abbott.
“This guy's name is Timothy Stenzel. Now, he works for the FDA, and he runs the group that oversees which antigen test gets approved.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes all seven COVID tests at Walgreens and CVS are identically priced at $23.99.
“Yesterday, just for kicks kinda, I went online. This is Walgreens and CVS antigen test. There's seven tests. They're all exactly $23.99. What is that? That's not a marketplace. That's not open competition.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley concludes Silicon Valley's success is because it is so far away from Washington DC.
“The reason Silicon Valley has been so successful is because it's so fucking far away from Washington DC.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley observes all voices promoting AI regulation are executives or large investors with tens to hundreds of millions at stake.
“In particular, it's quite notable that all of the loud voices are either executives at these companies and or large investors at these companies.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley finds it suspect that incumbents, not academicians, are leading the charge to regulate open source AI.
“The people that are leading the charge calling for the regulation and calling and some of them raising this question of whether open source should be allowed are the incumbents.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regions that shut down open source AI will fail to innovate relative to regions that allow it.
“So if you shut it down in a particular region, that region is gonna fail to innovate relative to the other regions that are out there.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley criticizes large LLM players for attacking open source and lobbying regulators against it.
“And for me, it's been a sad reality that some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling regulators to try and disable it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says large LLM companies attacking open source through regulators is unprecedented and makes him skeptical of their moats.
“it's been a sad reality that some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling regulators to try and disable it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says big AI model companies and Vinod Khosla openly advocated for making open source illegal or blocked.
“And then Vinod started basically saying that literally, like, yes, we should block open source.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says lawyers in Delaware derivative suit against Tesla are asking for five to six billion dollars in payment.
“One one data point you you left out, which came up recently, is the lawyers that that pursued this case are asking for 5 or $6,000,000,000 in payment.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley questions how a plaintiff with only nine shares can justify multibillion-dollar lawyer fees in Delaware case.
“So how could how could a client with nine shares lead to a multibillion dollar award to a lawyer?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says China has 300 nuclear plants in development versus zero in US, with 7-10 year build cycles.
“They have over 300 plants currently either being built or in development. We have zero, zero plants being built, I think 13 plants that are proposed, according to this data that we have here.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley questions why drug patents get seventeen years of protection while software patents are difficult to obtain.
“I don't know that seventeen years makes any sense whatsoever and why that industry gets protected down to a very minute detail of innovation, whereas it's very hard to have a software patent.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regulatory capture worsens as country ages because people learn to influence Washington over longer tenures.
“The more people hang around Washington for a very long period of time, they just learn how to influence it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Boeing as example of regulatory coziness problem in industries with longest regulatory history.
“There's a lot of talk about Boeing these days and a lack of competition and coziness with regulators. And it's a really big problem in the industries that have been around the longest.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says China has massive advantage clearing regulatory decks permanently while US only grants exceptions per project.
“This is where I think China has a massive advantage. They could just clear the decks for good for every project going forward. Whereas we're now making exceptions maybe with the TSMC plant in Arizona.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley questions whether NAR-created real estate contracts were designed to help consumers
“Was that document created to aid the consumer in any way whatsoever? Was that the objective function of the way that document was created? Do you have”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says NAR real estate contracts protect realtors not consumers with excessive signing requirements
“Yeah. I say hell no. No. No. Like, that document was created to protect the realtor and that NAR created it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states regulation favors incumbents and government should not pick AI winners now.
“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent. It's not time for the government to start picking winners.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley contrasts AI founders lobbying Washington and funding super PACs with his twenty-five years without doing so.
“I've spent twenty five years in this business and and not had to go kowtow to Washington to go to go placate, you know, senators and congressmen.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calls AI founders' government engagement a horrible precedent for future technology waves in venture capital.
“I think it'd just be a horrible step for the venture industry for this to be the first move when any new wave comes along is for people to run and become friends with the government and try and lock in their winners.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites claim that over 90% of NIH grants fund monetizable products versus preventative behavioral interventions.
“over 90% of NIH grants go towards things that are potentially monetizable, so either a product or a drug, and that the NIH is less interested in funding things that might be just preventative behavior, like behavioral things, like what you eat or your diet or things that don't lead to monetization.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues U.S. may have created healthcare industrial complex focused on profit maximization over prevention.
“And we may have created a people talk about the military industrial complex, we may have created a healthcare industrial complex that really can't stop maximizing profitability and different ways of making money not focus necessarily on the lowest cost, best, most preventative process.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues taxing unrealized capital gains would undermine entrepreneurial incentives and is nearly impossible to implement.
“this crazy idea to tax unrealized capital gains and how that in and of itself is not only almost impossible to implement, but also would undermine the very incentive that entrepreneurs have to go create businesses.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues Silicon Valley must actively engage in Washington to fight incumbent regulatory capture.
“I think, that engagement by Silicon Valley to fight back against the incumbents who are trying to do the capture. Right?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley proposes one-sided partnership terms as a new monopoly test under Sherman Act section two.
“Because I do think it's a sign of strength. And I could even go further and say that it should qualify under the Section two of the Sherman Act.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says China builds nuclear plants at $2.5B per gigawatt versus $13B in the US.
“The plants in China that are the equivalent level three fission plants right now are coming on board at 2,500,000,000 per gigawatt. Right. So 13 to 2.5.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues South Korea achieves China's nuclear costs as a democracy, making the comparison more relevant.
“South Korea is a democracy, a friend of The United they're at the same delivered price point as And they're doing it at scale and they're starting to export their technology.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains the NRC is fee-based and environmental litigation prevents nuclear development in the US.
“And so those costs are extremely high. The second thing is litigation. So multiple special interest groups, particularly environmental groups will sue to stop any development whatsoever.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues anti-China attitudes are misguided as China is leading in infrastructure and cost efficiency.
“I think this anti Chinese mentality is a little nuts because if you look at low cost EVs, if you look at their subway stations, if you look at, they're leading us in many areas.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley proposes rewriting nuclear regulation from scratch and eliminating lawsuit rights for important projects.
“And if you want to go build this next generation level three plant, I think you've got to rewrite the regulation from zero ground up, like make it thinner and tighter and two, I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says U.S. nuclear plants cost $13 billion per gigawatt versus China's $2.5 billion for equivalent technology.
“We recently brought on two new plants in The U. S. Vogtle three and four in And the total cost of that was about 30,000,000,000 for 2.2 gigawatts. It turns out over $13,000,000,000 per gigawatt.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says the most surprising finding is that nuclear industry insiders are not shocked by the 5X cost differential.
“So 13 to 2.5. Right, right. And that's a shocking Delta. Yes. And one of, I would say the single most surprising thing to me of all the discussions I've had in the past two weeks with everyone that's in this industry is how few people are shocked by that.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes South Korea achieves the same low nuclear costs as China while being a democracy and U.S. ally.
“South Korea is a democracy, a friend of The United States, they're at the same delivered price point as And they're doing it at scale and they're starting to export their technology.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains U.S. nuclear permitting takes ten years and the NRC charges hourly fees to regulate plants.
“So the separate federal and state environmental permitting processes in The US is onerous, lengthy, probably ten years for a nuclear power plant, expensive.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains the NRC charges nuclear operators hourly fees for regulation, driving up costs significantly.
“Most people don't know this, you have no reason to know this, but the NRC is a fee based regulatory.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues U.S. refuses to license South Korean nuclear technology despite cost advantages due to mental blockers.
“I ask all the AI bots, do you think there's any chance we would license something from South Korea? They all said, no, there's no chance we would do that.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says SMR startups face $60 million in NRC fees just to get approval, citing NuScale's failure as example.
“NuScale had to start laying people off it's just tough. And the other tough part, the NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the regulatory commission here in The U.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says SMR startups face $60 million in NRC fees just to get approval before building anything.
“Is fee based and all the people that are playing in this market I've talked to say you're probably 60,000,000 to first approval, just on fees the startups gonna pay to the NRC”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Pennsylvania bridge rebuilt in twelve days when regulation was removed as counter-example to current infrastructure costs.
“And I don't think the impacts We're at a 4X cost if I don't think you get there, And you so, I mentioned this earlier, but Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, everyone praises because this bridge went down on I-ninety 5 and he got it back up in twelve days.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley proposes Manhattan Project approach with IP-free solutions borrowing from Navy nuclear experience to catch up with China and Korea.
“And then two, consider some type of Manhattan project like approach where you get out of the current environment, you get a lot of smart people thinking from first principles, you may be borrowed from what the Navy's done and consider open source or IP free solutions to get everybody on the same page.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues Sam Altman's Washington access is valuable as regulation could reinforce OpenAI's competitive lock-in.
“He seems to have remarkable touch in Washington and access, which, you know, regulation appears to be coming at us fast and furious.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says DOGE methodology is to expose government waste publicly, with transparency as disinfectant.
“The methodology that I'm gonna assume was Elon's idea is basically to shine a flashlight on the ideocracy that exists. And, you know, transparency can be a hell of a disinfectant.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says two largest US departments failed audits for three to five years running.
“one of the things that's already come up is I think two of the largest departments in the country have failed audits for like three to five of the past years.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues every Delaware company should move domicile to avoid derivative lawsuit risk from staying.
“I would make the argument that every company in Delaware has to move to a different domicile because they could be sued in a future derivative lawsuit for the risk they've taken by staying”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley suggests a healthcare industrial complex has emerged that prioritizes profit over cost-effective preventative care.
“People talk about the military industrial complex. We may have created a health care industrial complex that really can't stop maximizing profitability and not focus necessarily on the lowest cost, best, most preventative process.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley claims many VCs have become China hawks because they need that stance to justify their military-tech investments.
“And I will tell you after spending twenty five years in venture capital, there's just this instinctive thing.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites research showing Delaware awards attorney fee multiples 23x to 57x more frequently than federal courts.
“in Delaware, seven times or higher is 23 times more likely than in a federal court. And 10 times or higher is 57 times or higher than in a federal court.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reveals 55% of high-multiplier Delaware cases are assigned to just two judges including the chancellor who assigns cases.
“It turns out that in the 20 cases where you have this this super high multiplier, 55% of the cases are just two of the judges.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues no one in the private market system has incentive to accurately mark valuations to LPs.
“No one has an incentive to get the marks right. For those that don't know this world, private investing, both on the PE side and the VC side is this weird world where the GPs, the people responsible for the investments, report the price to the LPs.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes Meta's Scale AI acquisition structure: 49% stake for $15B at $30B valuation to avoid regulatory scrutiny.
“Meta has done this interesting structured deal, they're buying 49% of the company, they're paying a $30,000,000,000 valuation so they're paying effectively 15,000,000,000, they're avoiding regulatory scrutiny, the CEO of scale is going to help lead efforts at Meta.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues OpenAI must go public to democratize access to trillion-dollar company returns beyond private market insiders.
“It needs to be a public company. The idea that we're going to have trillion dollar companies and the only people who get to participate are the people sitting around this table, right?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calls investigation of Brazil's PIX for undercutting Visa absurd given Visa and Mastercard's record operating incomes.
“I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Visa and Mastercard have, like, the top two operating incomes in the history of American business?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley contrasts US payment friction with instant settlement systems in Brazil, UK, China, and India.
“Your ACH takes three days to settle. Your wire costs $25 for domestic, $50 for international, and you have to fill out pages and pages exactly.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley criticizes Trump administration investigating Brazil's PIX for undercutting Visa and Apple.
“As part of its aggressive economic and political campaign against Brazil is investigating PICS, accusing the payment system of unfairly utter undercutting US financial and technology companies like Visa and Apple.”
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“I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Visa and Mastercard have, like, the top two operating incomes in the history of American business?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPO pricing is fundamentally broken because bankers pick price and allocation instead of markets.
“The way that an IPO's price is so god awful stupid. They pick who gets the stock and they pick the price.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPO pricing should match supply and demand anonymously like bonds, not banker allocation and pricing.
“And I've said it over and over again, but a freshman comp size student and a freshman finance student, if you told them to design the IPO, they would just match supply and demand anonymously.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regulation most often protects incumbents despite public perception to the contrary.
“regulation, I'd say most often ends up protecting the incumbent and the world thinks the opposite is true.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues regulation most often protects incumbents rather than constraining them, contrary to public perception.
“And so companies get big, they spend money lobbying, they spend time in Washington and they get laws written to help them rather than to constrain them.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley plans to study countries with less regulatory capture to understand their policies for his new institute.
“Want to, and this will be part of my new thing. I want to go study countries that have less of it and try and understand the policies.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes committee members fundraise across jurisdictions, which he finds inappropriate.
“One thing that's really amazing that most Americans probably don't realize is once your senator or congressman goes on a committee, they start fundraising in other jurisdictions.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes congressmen on committees can fundraise from relevant industries nationwide, which seems inappropriate.
“Like if you're on the finance committee, you can go raise money from every bank around the country. That just doesn't seem appropriate.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time, with most broken industries being most regulated.
“No, I think it's gotten worse over time. I made up this statement once that capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time. Like at the starting state, everything's fine.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues the IPO process is broken due to regulatory capture and most people don't understand how it actually works.
“I think the IPO process almost certainly also because of regulatory capture is remarkably broken. I don't actually think the average citizen even knows.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues the IPO process is broken due to regulatory capture and most people don't understand how it actually works.
“I think the IPO process almost certainly also because of regulatory capture is remarkably broken. I don't actually think the average citizen even knows.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says IPO bankers hand-pick price and allocations, creating expected pops as one-day giveaways to clients.
“And for the past twenty five, thirty years, you have these pops that have become expected, I would say. And it's a one day giveaway to their clients.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says modern venture capitalists refuse to take meetings on anything that is not AI-related.
“There's a reality where a modern venture capitalist does not wanna take a meeting in anything on AI.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues heavy regulation consistently produces oligopolies, citing airplane manufacturing as extreme example.
“in almost every industry in The US where there's heavy regulation, you've ended up with less diversity, fewer companies, more of a oligopoly.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues Anthropic and OpenAI seek regulation to handicap startups and open source competitors.
“I think for certain reason Anthropic and OpenAI are begging for regulation is so that they can write rules that make it harder for startups, open source models to be competitive with them, which I think is very rational for them to do, but I don't think it's good for society.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPOs should match supply and demand through bidding, calling current handpicked pricing process ignorant.
“So if you ask any first year comp sci student and first year finance student to write a model of how an IPO should work, you would allow everyone to bid and you would award the shares to the highest bidder. It's just not like, it's not, it should just be tautological.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues IPOs should match supply and demand through bidding rather than bankers handpicking prices.
“if you ask any first year comp sci student and first year finance student to write a model of how an IPO should work, you would allow everyone to bid and you would award the shares to the highest bidder. It's just not like, it's not, it should just be tautological.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues any first-year student would design IPOs to award shares to highest bidder, not handpicked prices.
“It's just not like, it's not, it should just be tautological. Like I don't know why there would be any debate.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley criticizes bankers handpicking IPO prices and allocating shares only to top clients.
“Why would you have a handpicked price when we know how to match supply and demand? And then they really only offer it to their top clients, which is just nutty.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Nasdaq and NYSE pushed for direct listings but banks were dragged into it reluctantly.
“They were dragged into direct listings. I would I would say because I spent a ton of time with them, both the Nasdaq and the NYSE were pushing to get these things across the line,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says the IPO market has consolidated from the four horsemen to an oligopoly of three big banks.
“It's very common to see all three of the big banks on the cover. And so it's really become a oligopoly of sorts.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues leading AI companies seek regulatory protection while conducting billions in secondary transactions for employees
“Can also though frame Like they're also raising billions and billions of dollars for the They're leading the biggest secondary transactions for their employees in the history of venture capital, the history of the world.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues leading AI companies seek regulatory protection because their biggest threat is open source movement.
“They're leading the biggest secondary transactions for their employees in the history of venture capital, the history of the world.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues leading AI model providers seek regulatory protection as biggest threat to their billions is open source movement.
“And so people are putting billions of dollars in their pocket. And so there's also a huge incentive to from the two leading model providers to seek regulatory protection, which most people wouldn't think regulation is but they've been begging for regulation since they started from from three years ago.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says AI leaders want regulation because open source is their biggest business threat
“And the reason I think they want it is the biggest threat to their businesses where they're cashing in billions of dollars is the open source movement.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes AI anxiety polls in China show fraction of US levels because Chinese leaders don't do doomsday messaging.
“Why? I think it's because the leaders over there that are working on these products aren't doing the doomsday stuff that Dario is doing.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley calls it radical that US AI company leaders are the biggest doomsayers about their own technology.
“The people leading the effort at the top companies here in The US are the biggest doomsayers. It's radical.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley criticizes circular deals where companies convert cash to revenue, saying all major AI players do it.
“You shouldn't be able to move cash from your balance sheet and create revenue on your income statement. I just don't think that should be okay. But they're all doing it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes AI fear polling is 20 percent in China versus 80 percent in America.
“And I think you guys mentioned this, but the polling on AI fear in China is like 20% or something like that. And it's like 80 here in America.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley blames AI founder fear-mongering for data center projects being stopped and regulatory impacts.
“That starts- Some of the founders. Yeah. And it's starting to have ramifications for the industry. A number of data center projects has been stopped.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says young AI companies begging for regulation is unprecedented and threatens idealistic entrepreneurship.
“So there's these new areas there and now AI where very young companies are begging for regulation, which is not anything I've seen in my career either.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues high margins at big tech companies may indicate market failure not success.
“I would argue that this, I don't think you're going to get a lot of other people in Silicon Valley that would be willing to say this, but it might be indicative of market failure rather than market success.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley credits Pinker and others with shifting public perception on nuclear energy from negative to positive.
“Like like, the the the world has vilified this technology. It's amazing technology. It's clean technology.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley credits Pinker, Musk, and others for shifting nuclear energy perception from vilified to positive five years ago.
“Like like, the the the world has vilified this technology. It's amazing technology. It's clean technology. What Germany is doing is bad.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says regulation is the friend of the incumbent, used to raise prices and prevent competition.
“I have a phrase I use, regulation is the friend of the incumbent. So they use it to actually raise prices, prevent competition, and further in ensconce themselves in the leadership role they're already in.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes Comcast lobbyist who worked for mayor then became most important executive at Comcast.
“There was a gentleman who was the head of the the head of lobbying at Comcast where I think New York Times or the Post, someone did a article where they said this is the most important executive at Comcast. And he had been working for the mayor before he went into that role.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley claims Anthropic has lobbied as much early in its life as FTX did, with people in every state.
“Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF. Like, they he also lobbied heavily.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says it costs 400% more to build nuclear plants in US than in South Korea or China.
“it costs four x, 400% more to build a a a fission nuclear plant, 70 year old technology in The US than it does in South Korea or China.”
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“I think the marginal cost of a PCR test was below $2, and the average price that was recompensated by the government was over $100.”
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“We only had two manufacturers, and they charged, like, $12 a test, so 10 x higher.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says China had 150 EV car companies, creating more intense competition than in the US.
“And you'll see, there were 150 EV car companies there. So hyper competition. In fact, I could argue the model they've created has more intense competition than we have here.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states South Korea builds nuclear plants at one fourth the US cost, calling it alarming.
“South Korea, not China, South Korea can build a nuclear fission plant for one fourth the price that we can in The US. And someone needs to be massively alarmed by that.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic uniquely leads AI while being the most negatively outspoken about their own field.
“I've never ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do. I've just never seen it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity, and he's uncertain which theory is scarier: regulatory capture or Doctor Frankenstein.
“I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity, and he's uncertain which theory is scarier: regulatory capture or Doctor Frankenstein.
“I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity and he fears that more than regulatory capture.
“I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor. Frankenstein theory.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity and he fears that more than regulatory capture.
“I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor. Frankenstein theory.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley contrasts stablecoins' instant penny transfers with traditional credit cards' two-plus percent fees.
“If you have a Coinbase account, you can put your money in a USDC stablecoin and earn 4%. And within seconds immediately transfer money to someone else for pennies.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Visa and Mastercard have 60 percent operating margins as bank-created duopolies.
“They have like 60% operating margins and they're they're duopolies and and they were created by the banks.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says China's instant transfers enabled Alibaba and Tencent to build wallets used for everything from street vendors to cars.
“In China, because they had this digital immediate transfer, Alibaba and Tencent were able to very quickly build digital wallets that people carry around.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes how China's digital payment system lets people pay for everything via QR codes.
“You scan a QR code, like, at a you check out of a restaurant. Like, can just pay at your table. There's a QR code on the table.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley's regulatory capture talk at All In conference received four and a half million views.
“I'd I tested doing it outside my field with a talk I gave at the all in conference on regulatory capture, which had, like, four and a half million views.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley's regulatory capture talk at All In conference received four and a half million views.
“I'd I tested doing it outside my field with a talk I gave at the all in conference on regulatory capture, which had, like, four and a half million views.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley coined the phrase regulation is the friend of the incumbent to describe how incumbents use regulation to prevent competition.
“I have I have a phrase I use, regulation is the friend of the incumbent.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says telecom regulatory capture equals or exceeds health care and finance levels.
“there are many I mean, first of all, the the the telecom space is probably equal to health care and finance in terms of regulatory capture.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains telecoms passed state laws preventing cities from competing despite receiving pole rights from those cities.
“And they were able to pass laws that said cities can't compete with them even though they're getting their poll rights from the the cities themselves.”
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“I spent twenty five years in Silicon Valley, it was titled 2851. And I I used that title because I had a punch line at the end where I said the reason Silicon Valley works so well is because it's so far fucking away from Washington DC, and that was the distance in miles.”
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“Like, they he also lobbied heavily, but they have people on the ground in every state. They're the ones pushing for state by state regulation.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley recounts being told to gather 15 people with maximum donation checks just to meet a congressman.
“And I'm like, what do you mean a bunch of people? I just wanted to say hello. Noah, I need you to get 15 people in the conference room.”
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David Sacks
Sacks claims Dario is pursuing a FINRA-style body as a Trojan horse for FDA-level AI regulation.
“Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that. So instead, they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI.”
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David Sacks
Sacks predicts Dario and OpenAI will fund and control the AI safety standard-setting body.
“Dario and OpenAI, they're gonna fund the whole thing. They're gonna contribute all the compute. They're gonna be behind it. They're gonna be the ones coordinating with the government officials.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- All-In Podcast also carries Bill Gurley and David Sacks on this subject, at different times.