Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
3 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 22 Feb 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Gavin Baker
16
26 Nov 2019 – 8 Jul 2026
-1549 d
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Brad Gerstner
1
thin
22 Feb 2024 – 22 Feb 2024
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 6 2 Oct 2024 – 5 Feb 2026 +223 d
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Howard Lutnick
1
thin
20 Mar 2025 – 20 Mar 2025
+392 d
- John Williams 1 thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains Intel's historical advantage of reaching semiconductor nodes first gave them 15-20% embedded advantage.
“Intel for the last, I don't know, fifty years, sixty years always got to the next node in semiconductor manufacturing first.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker quantifies Intel's manufacturing lead as 15-20% advantage that Taiwan Semi overtook in 2018.
“And in 2018, and it's important that the Taiwan Semi seven nanometer node is equivalent to the Intel 10 nanometer node.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Taiwan Semi reached the node before Intel in 2018, creating a competitive shift.
“Taiwan Semi got to the node before Intel, which meant that Taiwan Semi, who supplies most semiconductor companies that you can think of Yeah.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker notes Taiwan Semi will spend more on CapEx in two years than in the preceding five years.
“Taiwan Semi, their 2022 CapEx is going to be many multiples of 2019. 2021 and 2022, they'll spend more than they did in the preceding five years. So there is a massive supply response coming.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Taiwan Semi will spend more on CapEx in 2021-2022 than in the preceding five years.
“Taiwan Semi, their 2022 CapEx is going to be many multiples of 2019. 2021 and 2022, they'll spend more than they did in the preceding five years.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues semiconductor industry has consolidated into monopolies or duopolies in every subsector over fifteen years.
“Let's step back and look at the last fifteen years of semis. The industry has completely consolidated to where you almost have these monopolies and almost monopolies or duopolies.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker cites research showing AI algorithm quality doubles with every 10x increase in training data.
“Microsoft wrote about this in a research paper ten years ago, or maybe not twelve years ago, the quality of a given AI algorithm doubles with every 10x increase in the amount of data you use to train that algorithm.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker identifies extreme consolidation in semiconductors with only three companies making leading edge logic.
“Today, Intel, Samsung, Taiwan, Semi, they the only companies in the world that can make leading edge logic. There's only three companies that can make leading edge DRAM, maybe four for NAND.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker identifies Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semi as the only companies capable of making leading edge logic chips.
“Today, Intel, Samsung, Taiwan, Semi, they the only companies in the world that can make leading edge logic.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites Morris Chang explaining why Texas cannot compete with Taiwan fab plants.
“The U. Yeah. Interestingly enough, he ran a fab plant for Texas Instruments in Texas. And he explains why Taiwan, like why Texas could never possibly compete with a fat plant in Taiwan.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues US export controls are counterproductive because China can now build better chips domestically than what's allowed for export.
“They can build better chips in China, then we restrict them in terms of chips that NVIDIA or AMD or an Intel can sell to China.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick claims $2 trillion in production commitments returned to US in seven weeks due to tariffs.
“$2,000,000,000,000 of committed domestic production coming back because of his tariffs. TMC saying, I'll build, you know, semiconductor wafers.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says there hasn't been a true semiconductor capacity cycle since the late nineties due to TSMC smoothing supply.
“We haven't seen a true capacity cycle in semis arguably since the late nineties. And that's because Taiwan Semi has been so good at aggregating and smoothing supply.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel notes semiconductor industry doubles transistors yearly but energy industry wasn't prepared for similar growth.
“Whereas the energy industry in America wasn't. And and so, like, initially, people were, like, not creative. They're like, let's do let's do these kinds of gas plants.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as the primary constraint in 2027 after power constraints ease.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says China's entire culture is semiconductor-focused, even appearing in romance dramas.
“I think the entire country is like semiconductor pilled. Mhmm. Right? There are dramas where people fall in love in the fab or dramas where people fall in love and they're photovoltaic,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says China's entire culture is semiconductor pilled with romance dramas set in fabs and solar research.
“There are dramas where people fall in love in the fab or dramas where people fall in love and they're photovoltaic, like, solar cell researchers and engineers.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel claims China has the most vertical semiconductor stack and could run fabs independently unlike TSMC.
“China has the most vertical stack in semiconductors today and they're the best at semiconductors in the world because their fabs could still run somewhat on a lot of things because they have built some of these chemical supply chains. Right? Like TSMC for certain kinds of chemicals 100% share from Japan.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker reveals SpaceX and Tesla are building world's largest fab in America with Intel partnership access.
“It's a SpaceX, I believe Tesla's involved as well, joint venture to build the world's largest fab here in America. I think they're going to be successful.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains TSMC caught Intel because semiconductor equipment suppliers wanted to avoid Intel's monopsony power.
“They wanted them to catch up. They don't like having a monopsony. The a teams were in Taiwan working. Intel made some mistakes and presto.”
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“I published a note, I think in, February 2000 after six weeks of looking at these stocks.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Jensen Huang was obviously exceptional when they first met in early 2000s.
“I was a pretty young man. It was obvious to me he was exceptional, like for sure one of the most exceptional people I'd ever met.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains semiconductor manufacturing advantage comes from recipe not ingredients, despite using same equipment.
“And semi's and semiconductor manufacturing, you have a big advantage if you were ahead. Everybody it's like baking. Everybody uses the same ingredients or whatever.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues silicon will eat the world because AI is far more computationally intensive than deterministic software.
“And the nature of AI just as AI eats the world, silicon is going to eat the world because it's so much more computationally intensive than deterministic software written by humans.”
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John Williams
Williams sees sharp price increases in semiconductors and power transformers from AI demand outpacing supply.
“As a result, we are seeing sharp increases in the prices of semiconductors, power transformers, and other technology that is essential for the AI buildout.”
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