Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
5 of 8 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 9 Jan 2024 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
-
Gavin Baker
10
2 Apr 2020 – 25 Jan 2022
-1377 d
-
Brad Gerstner
13
23 Jun 2020 – 15 May 2026
-1295 d
- Dylan Patel 3 thin 2 Feb 2023 – 30 Apr 2026 -341 d
-
David Friedberg
2
thin
9 Jan 2024 – 9 Oct 2025
+0 d
-
Bill Gurley
5
8 Feb 2024 – 21 Apr 2026
+30 d
- Jensen Huang 1 thin 4 Feb 2026 – 4 Feb 2026 +757 d
-
Marc Rowan
2
thin
3 Mar 2026 – 3 Mar 2026
+784 d
-
Howard Marks
2
thin
12 Jun 2026 – 12 Jun 2026
+885 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
-
-
Gavin Baker
Baker challenges the notion of truly recurring revenue, noting software was only 7-10% of IT spend in 2008-09.
“A lot of people are baselining off what happened in 'eight, 'nine. And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker argues software at 30% of IT spend today versus 7-10% in 2008-09 means it will get cut.
“And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend. And today it's roughly 30% excluding spending on the big cloud hyperscale infrastructures”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker notes software is now 30% of IT spend, or 50% including cloud, versus 7-10% in 2008-09.
“And today it's roughly 30% excluding spending on the big cloud hyperscale infrastructures and service companies like Azure, Amazon web services, and Google GCP.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker references Robert Smith's claim that software is better than first lien debt.
“Robert Smith is the CEO of Vista Equity Partners, brilliant man. And he famously said software is better than first lien debt.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker recounts how a dentist cut her software bill in half in one hour by threatening to switch vendors.
“He said, tell Gavin exactly what you just told me. And his sister is a dentist and obviously she's grappling with how to run her practice.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker recounts a dentist cutting her software bill in half in one hour with zero pushback.
“In one hour, she cut her software bill in half. One hour, she said there was zero pushback. And I've been telling people this story.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker reports a dentist cut her software bill in half in one hour with zero pushback.
“In one hour, she cut her software bill in half. One hour, she said there was zero pushback.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker reports small businesses are cutting software bills 30-50% in an hour by simply asking vendors.
“In the last two days, lots of friends have come to me and said, Hey, I told my brother, my sister, my mom, my dad, my uncle, my aunt, my friend who has a small business, that story, they did the same thing and they cut their software bill 30 to 50% in an hour.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues AWS, GCP and Azure enable software companies to scale faster and more capital efficiently than before.
“But the fact of the matter is because of AWS, GCP and Azure, software companies are scaling faster and in a more capital efficient way”
-
-
-
Gavin Baker
Baker argues AI is now eating software, extending Andreessen's famous thesis.
“Marc Andreessen wrote this op ed, whatever it was, ten years ago about how software is eating the world. Now AI is eating software.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker argues Google was first cloud provider to embrace rather than compete with third-party infrastructure software.
“B, there's a lot of money to be made just in providing these primitives. Let's stop trying to compete with these independent infrastructure software providers right on top of the cloud.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner found only 21 public software companies exceed $2B revenue and $25B value.
“Public software companies over 2,000,000,000 in revenue, we got to 21. Okay? There are only 21 that are worth more than $25,000,000,000”
-
-
-
Dylan Patel
Patel reports PyTorch 2.0 delivered 30% performance improvement on 7,000 popular GitHub models.
“So I think I think I think, the PyTorch Foundation tested the 7,000 most popular most starred models on GitHub, and they got, like, a 30% increase.”
-
-
-
David Friedberg
Friedberg argues too much capital flows into small software projects seeking quick 10x returns.
“And you could probably make 50,000,000 in return. That's a nice little 10 bagger. Great. Let's do that. And then let's plow a trillion dollars into that concept.”
-
Bill Gurley
Gurley says Silicon Valley rushes to price-to-revenue multiples because it's the crudest, least intelligent valuation method.
“I've always said that Silicon Valley has the crudest kind of least intelligent view of valuation. They always rush to price to revenue because it's easy and because quite frankly, it's easier to be optimistic.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains that rule of 40 and revenue multiples are shortcuts for determining free cash flow multiples.
“Whether your rule of 40 or a multiple of revenue, those are shorthands for getting at the multiple of free cash flow.”
-
Bill Gurley
Gurley argues software deal slowdowns stem from uncertainty about AI bets rather than budget pressures.
“Rather than budget pressures, what I really think you're seeing is the slowing down and the elongation of the big commits because people really need to make sure that they're betting on the future, not on the past.”
-
Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts headlines about death of software will appear silly in less than 24 months.
“I suspect that these headlines, the end of software, the death of software, in I would argue less than twenty four months will appear to be silly.”
-
-
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner recounts Satya Nadella saying most applications are just interfaces on CRUD databases, which Benioff disputed.
“When Satya came on our pod and he said that, you know, that at the end of the day, most applications are just consumer interfaces sitting on top of a CRUD database and, you know, Mark Benioff calls me and he's like, you know, that's not true.”
-
David Friedberg
Friedberg persisted with building agricultural software despite investors telling him to focus on the insurance business instead.
“How do we retain our agents from last year? Just all the typical stuff that goes on with scaling a business.”
-
-
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low.
“We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues the market wrongly treats all software equally and expects meaningfully accelerating revenues from AI beneficiaries.
“And so we'll see. These guys have to deliver. And so I expect we're gonna see meaningfully accelerating revenues out of those companies,”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says now is the time to find the 10% of beaten-down software companies that will benefit from AI.
“90% of the companies that are down deserve to be down. Find the 10 that got thrown out with the bathwater. Find the 10%, right, that are going to benefit from AI.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low.
“Look at that peak in 2021. Right? We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.”
-
Jensen Huang
Huang calls the notion that AI will replace software tools illogical, despite software stock pressure.
“There's this notion that the tool in this the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains software stocks previously traded at 35x free cash flow due to bond-like predictability.
“Give them 35 times free cash flow because I had that level of predictability. It was like a government bond.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says AI uncertainty has rationally caused investors to discount future cash flows and terminal values.
“I can't see as far into the future, so I'm gonna pay less for the terminal value. I'm gonna pay less for those future free cash flows.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says software valuations only recover when companies prove they are AI beneficiaries through revenue acceleration.
“So the only way that reverses, Scott, is those companies have to accelerate their core revenues and show that they are beneficiaries of AI.”
-
Bill Gurley
Gurley explains tech stock selloffs occur because terminal value collapses if AI threatens twenty-year survival.
“And for most of these high-tech companies, the next five years cash flow are a fraction of their actual market cap, which means all the values in the terminal value.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains software stocks fall before earnings miss due to higher discount rates and lower terminal values.
“We can't forecast as well. Therefore, the terminal value must be lower. The discount rate is higher and the multiple comes down. So the stocks come down well before they start missing.”
-
Marc Rowan
Rowan notes software stocks have fallen almost 70% following the recent realization that AI will impact the software sector.
“But apparently two weeks ago, we discovered that AI is going to impact software and we've been in a massive risk off mode. And so software stocks are down almost 70%.”
-
Marc Rowan
Rowan notes software stocks are down almost 70% after markets recently realized AI's impact on the sector.
“But apparently two weeks ago we discovered that AI is going to impact software and we've been in a massive risk off mode and so software stocks are down almost 70%.”
-
Bill Gurley
Gurley argues software requiring deterministic data like financial ledgers is safer from AI disruption than translation-type products AI can replicate.
“It needs to be quite deterministic, and so I think the software that's safer is one where there's a need for deterministic data,”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel notes AI software stacks update constantly with nightly builds making performance measurement time-sensitive.
“with software changing literally multiple times a week, right, PyTorch has nightlies, VLM has nightlies, Asteeling has nightlies, CUDA drivers update constantly.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel explains AI software stacks update multiple times per week making performance measurement a moving target.
“with software changing literally multiple times a week, right, PyTorch has nightlies, VLM has nightlies, Asteeling has nightlies, CUDA drivers update constantly. You just go You go through the whole list.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues software stocks have reverted from premium valuations to market multiples when adjusted for stock-based compensation.
“Software stocks have reverted from a decade long superior multiple to the market to a market multiple.”
-
Howard Marks
Marks argues companies are not failing and investors paint software concerns with too broad a brush.
“It I I think there's an expectation. And and, you know, investors tend to paint things with the broad brush and not make fine distinctions.”
-
Howard Marks
Marks believes market worry about software sector distress is excessive and outcomes will be better than expected.
“I think today, if you could if you could ascertain people's expectations, I personally think that the that the level of worry and the universality of worry with regard to software is probably excessive.”
-
Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner — BG2 Pod, 1 appearance together
- Invest Like the Best also carries Brad Gerstner and Gavin Baker on this subject, at different times.