Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 2 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 2 May 2022 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Howard Marks
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2 May 2022 – 2 Mar 2026
+0 d
- John Williams 2 thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Howard Marks
Marks challenges the risk-return line saying if higher returns are certain from risky assets, they aren't risky.
“if you can count on higher returns from a risky asset, then by definition, it's not risky. So it's kind of an oxymoron. And I was never comfortable with this graphic.”
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Howard Marks
Marks defines risk as the probability of an undesirable outcome, not volatility or fluctuation.
“Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome.”
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Howard Marks
Marks defines risk as the probability of an undesirable outcome, not volatility.
“Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.”
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Howard Marks
Marks explains risky assets must appear to offer high returns but do not have to deliver them.
“If a risky asset can be counted on to have a high return, then it's not risky. So it can't be true. It's incorrect on its face.”
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John Williams
Williams says standard theory paradoxically predicts productivity increases cause downturns with declining investment and hours worked.
“Assuming immediate recognition, standard macroeconomic theories predict a paradoxical result: an increase in trend productivity growth drives up real interest rates and causes an economic downturn, with hours worked, investment, and output declining.”
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John Williams
Williams explains the perverse result comes from wealth effects and higher rates leading households to consume more and work less.
“This “perverse” result, in the words of John Campbell (1994), 5 stems from the combination of a strong wealth effect and higher expected real interest rates, which contribute to a transition period during which households enjoy greater consumption and leisure.”
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