Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 4 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 4 Oct 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Gavin Baker
9
26 Nov 2019 – 8 Jul 2026
-1408 d
- Dylan Patel 35 4 Oct 2023 – 13 May 2026 +0 d
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Bill Gurley
2
thin
10 Jun 2024 – 31 Oct 2024
+250 d
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Brad Gerstner
1
thin
12 Mar 2025 – 12 Mar 2025
+525 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Taiwan Semi reached the node before Intel in 2018, creating a competitive shift.
“Taiwan Semi got to the node before Intel, which meant that Taiwan Semi, who supplies most semiconductor companies that you can think of Yeah.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains TSMC and Intel achieved seven nanometer manufacturing using older DUV lithography with multi-patterning technique.
“TSMC and Intel were able to do it with what's called multi patterning DUV, deep ultraviolet. Right? So that just means they use the DUV lithography many times, right, for simplicity's sake.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains TSMC and Intel achieved seven nanometer manufacturing using older DUV lithography with multi-patterning technique.
“TSMC and Intel were able to do it with what's called multi patterning DUV, deep ultraviolet. Right? So that just means they use the DUV lithography many times, right, for simplicity's sake.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says TSMC still uses DUV for seven nanometer despite having fifty EUV tools because DUV proved superior.
“So TSMC, to this day, even though they've been use they have over 50 EUV tools and they make hundreds of thousands of wafers a month with EUV, still uses DUV for their seven nanometer.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says TSMC still uses DUV for seven nanometer despite having fifty EUV tools because DUV proved superior.
“So TSMC, to this day, even though they've been use they have over 50 EUV tools and they make hundreds of thousands of wafers a month with EUV, still uses DUV for their seven nanometer.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains TSMC found DUV superior to EUV for seven nanometer on yield, cost, and performance after trying both.
“TSMC tried both. Right? And so at six nanometer and five nanometer, they use EUV, but they think cost efficiency wise, yield, right, which is how good the product's coming out, how many are good, how many need to be thrown away, the yield is better, the cost is better, the performance is better with DUV rather than EUV.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains TSMC found DUV superior to EUV for seven nanometer on yield, cost, and performance after trying both.
“TSMC tried both. Right? And so at six nanometer and five nanometer, they use EUV, but they think cost efficiency wise, yield, right, which is how good the product's coming out, how many are good, how many need to be thrown away, the yield is better, the cost is better, the performance is better with DUV rather than EUV.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Chinese firms offer TSMC engineers five hundred thousand dollars versus eighty to one-fifty thousand in Taiwan.
“In TSMC, they're getting paid, you know, only like 80 to 150 k. Right? Like USD. Right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Chinese firms offer TSMC engineers five hundred thousand dollars versus eighty to one-fifty thousand in Taiwan.
“In TSMC, they're getting paid, you know, only like 80 to 150 k. Right? Like USD. Right?”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley highlights TSMC chairman publicly stating Sam Altman is too aggressive to believe.
“There was a super interesting comment made by the new chairman of TSMC where he said, OpenAI, Sam Altman, is too aggressive for me to believe.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues AI demand is what makes continued semiconductor node advancement economically viable today.
“funding the next node would not be economically viable anymore if it weren't for AI taking off. Right? And then generating all this humongous demand for the most leading edge chip.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes TSMC announced 20% across-the-board price increase as expected proof point of supply-demand dynamics.
“Another thing that came out this morning that I was kind of waiting on as a proof point, because it didn't make sense to me that it hadn't happened yet, TSMC said they're gonna do across the board 20 price increase.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says TSMC pledged $100 billion more, contributing to $1.5 trillion in total U.S. reinvestment commitments.
“I mean, the list of companies, I think we're up to a trillion, a trillion and $0.5 of reinvestment.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues TSMC's $100 billion US investment still relies on Taiwan R&D, not securing supply chain.
“Even if they do fully do the full $100,000,000,000 they commit to, completely still relying on R and D in Taiwan.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues TSMC's $100 billion US investment won't secure R&D supply chain or new node development.
“The R and D fab they announced is not going to secure R and D supply chain, right? It's not going to secure new node development, right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says TSMC approaches 20% of Taiwan's power consumption, projecting 30-40% within five years.
“And if they were to continue to build out what we expect them to build out in the next four or five years, it's going get to 30%, 40%.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel lists NVIDIA's structural advantages across networking, HBM, process nodes, speed to market, and supplier negotiations.
“NVIDIA's gonna have better networking than you. They're gonna have better, HBM. They're gonna have better process node. They're gonna come to market faster.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues competing with NVIDIA requires leaping forward beyond supply chain advantages across networking, memory, manufacturing and components.
“They're gonna have better negotiations with whether it's TSMC or SK Hynix and the memory and silicon side or all the rack people or, like, copper cables, everything, they're gonna have better cost efficiency.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Huawei brought seven nanometer AI chips to market first in 2020 with minimal gap to NVIDIA.
“In 2020, they released an Ascend chip and submit it to impartial public benchmarks, and they were the first to bring seven nanometer AI chips to market.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Huawei acquired 2.9 million chips worth $500 million from TSMC through shell companies before getting caught.
“they were able to acquire 3,000,000 chips, 2,900,000 chips from TSMC through these other entities. Right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Huawei acquired 2.9 million chips worth $500 million from TSMC through shell companies before getting caught.
“they were able to acquire 3,000,000 chips, 2,900,000 chips from TSMC through these other entities. Right?”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says there hasn't been a true semiconductor capacity cycle since the late nineties due to TSMC smoothing supply.
“We haven't seen a true capacity cycle in semis arguably since the late nineties. And that's because Taiwan Semi has been so good at aggregating and smoothing supply.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as the primary constraint in 2027 after power constraints ease.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as the primary constraint in 2027 after power constraints ease.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memory manufacturers.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memory manufacturers.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says memory makers have not built new fabs since 2022 due to cyclical nature.
“The memory makers, in fact, have just not expanded capacity. Basically, new they've not built new fabs since 2022. Yeah. Because their their cycle their cycle is so undulating.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel claims China has the most vertical semiconductor stack and could run fabs independently unlike TSMC.
“China has the most vertical stack in semiconductors today and they're the best at semiconductors in the world because their fabs could still run somewhat on a lot of things because they have built some of these chemical supply chains. Right? Like TSMC for certain kinds of chemicals 100% share from Japan.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel details that producing one gigawatt of Rubin chips requires specific wafer volumes across multiple manufacturing nodes.
“a gigawatt of, you know, NVIDIA's Rubin chips. Right? So Rubin is announced at GTC, I believe, the week this podcast goes live.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel calculates a gigawatt of Rubin requires 55,000 three-nanometer wafers and 170,000 DRAM wafers.
“You need about 55,000 wafers of three nanometer. You need about 6,000 wafers of five nanometer, and then you need about a 170,000 wafers of DRAM, right, memory.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports NVIDIA is negotiating over $250 billion in supply contracts across components this year.
“And as you look at what they're negotiating in the market today, there's over 250,000,000,000 of wafers, of memory, of substrates, of PCBs, of networking equipment that they're going to sign this year,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues NVIDIA is setting up supply chain to manufacture tens of millions of AI chips.
“I can't buy millions, tens of millions, which is what Jensen's, setting his supply chain up for.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says AI chips consuming all TSMC 3nm and 2nm capacity is forcing companies to alternative fabs.
“More importantly is that AI is buying all the capacity on three nanometer and two nanometer in a couple years that, people are having to turn to other directions.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues NVIDIA acquired Grok partly because it's manufactured on Samsung, avoiding TSMC capacity constraints.
“Part of it was because they want to have really fast inference, but like part of it is that Grok is manufactured on Samsung.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains NVIDIA acquired Grok partly because it manufactures on Samsung due to no TSMC 3nm capacity available.
“Because there's no three nanometer capacity for them at TSMC, they need to chip somewhere else, and if you just if AI is as crazy as like we believe it is, and demand is as crazy as we believe it is, it's gonna be even crazier next year,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains NVIDIA acquired Grok partly because it manufactures on Samsung due to no TSMC 3nm capacity available.
“Because there's no three nanometer capacity for them at TSMC, they need to chip somewhere else, and if you just if AI is as crazy as like we believe it is, and demand is as crazy as we believe it is, it's gonna be even crazier next year,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains AI chips are crowding onto three nanometer nodes, displacing mobile chip production.
“Right? Because all the AI chips are on three nanometer and it takes time, Small mobile chips are easier to make than big AI chips, so all the AI chips are moving to three nanometer now, right? MI three fifty from”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says AI chips are moving to three nanometer, squeezing out mobile chip manufacturers.
“Right? Because all the AI chips are on three nanometer and it takes time, Small mobile chips are easier to make than big AI chips, so all the AI chips are moving to three nanometer now, right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel lists AMD MI350, Amazon Trainium 3, and Google TPU v7 as AI chips now on 3nm process node.
“MI three fifty from late last year from AMD or Tranium three and TPU v seven from late last year, or slash early this year from Amazon and Google”
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Dylan Patel
Patel estimates five to eight years of global tool manufacturing would be needed to replace Taiwan's chip capacity.
“It would take five to eight years of all of the world's tool manufacturing capability Yeah. To even replace the capacity in Taiwan.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Jensen Huang visits Taiwan Semi quarterly wanting capacity doubled or tripled but they only expand 5%.
“And so they're just simply not expanding capacity as fast as Jensen wants. Jensen goes there every three months and, you know, maybe they expand, you know, 5%. He wants them to double or triple.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker believes NVIDIA could sell $11.5 trillion worth of chips next year if TSMC expanded capacity sufficiently.
“And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker reveals Jensen Huang has never had a contract with TSMC, operating entirely on handshakes and fairness.
“I do think it's wild that Jensen has never had a contract with Taiwan Semi. They do business on what seems fair in handshakes.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues NVIDIA could sell $2-3 trillion in GPUs if TSMC expanded capacity, but TSMC's restraint prevents a bubble.
“If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, I think Nvidia could sell $2,000,000,000,000 of GPUs in '26 or '27, maybe 2,500,000,000,000, maybe 3,000,000,000,000. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker explains TSMC caught Intel because semiconductor equipment suppliers wanted to avoid Intel's monopsony power.
“They wanted them to catch up. They don't like having a monopsony. The a teams were in Taiwan working. Intel made some mistakes and presto.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues TSMC remains a bottleneck even if orbital data centers solve power shortages.
“But even if we solve the shortage of Watts with orbital data centers, the TSM is still a bottleneck. And semi's and semiconductor manufacturing, you have a big advantage if you were ahead.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker reveals TSMC executives dismissed Sam Altman as a podcast pro when they met with him.
“But they're just not going to and the TSM executives are the people who met with Sam Altman, and they dismissed him as a podcast pro.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- CNBC Television also carries Brad Gerstner and Dylan Patel on this subject, at different times.