Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
Every lane here carries 5 quotes or more. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 11 Dec 2012 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
29
11 Dec 2012 – 4 Aug 2026
+0 d
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Brad Gerstner
7
23 Jun 2020 – 3 Apr 2025
+2751 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains Uber was impossible before smartphones due to cost of installing embedded systems in cars.
“You're not going to go install 700 embedded systems designs in every car and the wireless and build the contracts. You're not going to do all that.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reports Uber expanded San Francisco's black car fleet from 650 to 850 vehicles.
“When Uber started, there were six fifty licensed black cars in San Francisco. Today, there's eight fifty in San Francisco driving on Uber.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley observes people routinely eliminating second cars and using Uber for daily transportation instead.
“There are people spending 10 to $15 a year, and I routinely meet people who have gotten rid of a second car and are using Uber in their daily lives.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley identifies taxi commissioners and taxi fleets as drivers of all Uber legal issues.
“The predominant driver of most 100% of the legal issues is either a taxi commissioner or a taxi fleet.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites D.C. council member whose jailed ex-chief of staff took taxi fleet bribes still deciding regulation.
“C, his former chief of staff is in jail because he took a bribe from the taxi fleet, you know, like two years ago, and he's still on the commission that's deciding these things.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley states Uber has 300,000 drivers globally and is adding 50,000 per month, the fastest job creation he knows.
“There's about 300,000 Uber drivers right now and they're adding it right now at a pace of 50,000 a month. That's on a global basis.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues that for eighty years we grossly underestimated transportation demand by limiting it with taxi medallions.
“The most fascinating thing for me is that for basically eighty years, we grossly underestimated the demand for transportation services. And we limited it at a city government level with the taxi medallion.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Morgan Stanley finding that cars are 97% idle despite representing 15% of global capital expenditure.
“There's an interesting thing that Morgan Stanley put out where they calculate that 97% of cars are idle.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Uber's entire stakeholder base was at risk before leadership change.
“We reached a point where we felt like, you know, the entire company, you know, and all of its constituencies, drivers, riders, employees, shareholders, were at risk if the company continued to move in the direction it was.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley reveals five investors including Fidelity felt all Uber constituents were at risk before taking action.
“So people typically say benchmark, but there was five investors, including Fidelity, who felt like all of the constituents at Uber were at risk, if action didn't happen sooner.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley expresses high confidence in Dara's track record addressing Uber's problems.
“the DAR is starting to build up a track record of having put out these fires and and attack these problems.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Uber's rideshare EBITDA margins went from negative 20% to over 30% in six quarters.
“Uber just reported their quarterly reports and I think their segment EBITDA margins in January and February for rideshare were over 30%. I believe six quarters earlier, they were negative 20%.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Uber's rideshare margins went from negative 20% to over 30% in six quarters.
“I think their segment EBITDA margins in January and February for rideshare were over 30%. I believe six quarters earlier, they were negative 20%.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains Didi's competitive strength internationally could separately impact Uber's valuation.
“Uber also competes with DD internationally. And so whether or not this affects DD's ability to be competitive is a different force that could impact Uber's valuation.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Uber went from losing $2.5B to profiting $3.5B in free cash flow under Khosrowshahi.
“The company went from losing over 2,500,000,000 or around 2,500,000,000 when Dara took over to profiting over 3,500,000,000, and we're talking free cash flow.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes consensus forecasts Uber reaching almost $10B in free cash flow in a few years.
“if you look at the consensus forecast for the business, which is pretty mind boggling, it's estimated by the consensus that it'll reach almost 10,000,000,000 in free cash flow, just a few years from now.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues Khosrowshahi's capital markets expertise was critical fit for cash-hemorrhaging Uber needing focus.
“Uber at the time was hemorrhaging cash, needed to get rid of some divisions, needed to focus on the core.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley describes Matt Cohler's concept of remote control for your life with Uber as one-click ride example
“And my my partner, Matt Cola, used to call this the remote control for your life. And we would talk about Uber as a one click ride.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicted black car marketplace would work better than taxi due to less friction before finding Uber
“Because there's going to be less friction and we're going to be able to use the tools that entrepreneurs know how to use to be successful.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says excess capital prevented winner-take-most dynamics from developing profitably until capital dried up and Uber's profitability skyrocketed.
“it slowed down and prevented the natural order of things. The 8020, the winner take most from developing in a profitable way.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Uber was already 20x bigger than the San Francisco taxi market when critics valued it at $4 billion.
“in San Francisco, we're already 20 x bigger than the San Francisco taxi market at the time he wrote it.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner believes robotaxis pose a fundamental risk to Uber's business model.
“I I I think this does pose a risk fundamentally to the Uber business model.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner has added a small Uber position in recent weeks during pullbacks.
“We actually have a small slice of of Uber in our portfolio today that we've added right over the course of the past few weeks on some of these pullbacks.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley credits Dara with building Uber to $200 billion valuation with over $10 billion annual free cash flow.
“And Dara has done an amazing job. I mean, to take it from there to $200,000,000,000 public company, over 10,000,000,000 a year in free cash flow, like from where we were. Yeah, unbelievable.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley recalls Travis Kalanick's first two companies ending in bankruptcy or minimal returns before Uber.
“I remember when we did the first Uber investment, Travis, his his first couple of companies, one of them I think ended up in bankruptcy.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley wrote a post debunking an NYU professor's analysis that Uber would never exceed $4 billion in value.
“He published this piece that said Uber would never be worth more than $4,000,000,000 And I wrote one of my favorite blog posts ever titled How to Miss by a Mile, where I took apart his analysis and tried to well, I had a little I had an unfair advantage.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley knew Uber was already 20x bigger than taxi market in San Francisco when professor valued it at $4 billion.
“I already knew in San Francisco that Uber was 20 x bigger than the taxi market. He didn't know that.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley knew Uber was already 20 times bigger than taxi market in San Francisco contradicting professor's TAM analysis.
“I already knew in San Francisco that Uber was 20 x bigger than the taxi market.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley notes the professor analyzing Uber admitted he had never used the product, only taxis.
“Not only that. In in the in the report of his, which a summary version got public, but I found the background version, he admits that he had never ridden Uber and only taken taxis.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues dynamic pricing is essential for digital marketplaces and giving it up would be fatal.
“And I knew that if you wanted to create a digital marketplace, you wanna use price to to cause liquidity, to get encourage drivers to come out at the right time, like you'd hate to give up price in a digital marketplace or auction, like you never would.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley explains dynamic pricing is essential for digital marketplace liquidity and driver supply management.
“I knew that if you wanted to create a digital marketplace, you wanna use price to to cause liquidity, to get encourage drivers to come out at the right time, like you'd hate to give up price in a digital marketplace or auction, like you never would.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley told partners to pursue any company layering technology on top of black cars before seeing Uber.
“I said to my partners, if we ever see a company that's putting a layer on top of the black cars, we should run at it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley recalls Uber's mega-burn era had no precedent, leaving board with no mentors or case studies.
“You could take the board members from Walmart and Costco and GM and and General Electric or whatever you consider the top 10 best company, and they would have never been in this situation before.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Uber burning $2B yearly, now generating over $10B in annual free cash flow.
“Uber's a case where we were burning 2,000,000,000 a year and Dara, you know, has it now generating over 10,000,000,000 a year in free cash flow.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Uber in San Francisco was 20 times bigger than the taxi market, proving TAM conservatism wrong.
“By the time I wrote that, I already knew that Uber in San Francisco was 20 x bigger than the taxi market in San Francisco.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley discovered Amazon was running same-day delivery experiments on top of Uber using burner phones and driver cars.
“And I'm like, what happens at 02:30? He goes, I have to meet at the Amazon warehouse at 02:30.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- CNBC Television also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.